The public-private pay gap: a robust quantile approach

This paper investigates whether a public sector premium exists after controlling for observable characteristics and for additional motivations, other than monetary, that may induce workers to prefer employment in the public sector. We study the entire conditional wage distribution on Italian micro data, covering the period 1998-2008. The evidence under random sampling shows the existence of a wage differential averaging at about 14% for women and 4% for men, generally lower at the high tail of the wage distribution and in the Northern regions. The premium significantly increases when possible sorting is considered; the correction is particularly large above the median of the wage distribution, therefore suggesting that the additional motivations may play an important role above all at higher wage levels. When we restrict our comparison to large private firms, a differential is confirmed for women but not for men.public employment, wage differentials, wage determination

Public sector efficiency and political culture

The capability of a country's public sector to provide high-quality goods and services in a cost-effective way is crucial to fostering long-term growth. In this paper we study the determinants of public service efficiency (PSE) and in particular the role of citizens' political values. Indeed, we argue that citizens' willingness to invest time and effort monitoring public affairs is necessary if policy-makers are to be held accountable for what they do and deterred from wasting public resources. Contrary to other papers, our empirical analysis exploits within-country variation, therefore reducing the risk of omitted variable bias and implicitly controlling for differences in formal institutions. First, we compute PSE measures for several public services (namely education, civil justice, healthcare, childcare and waste disposal) for the 103 Italian provinces; then we show that a higher degree of political engagement increases PSE. This remains true even after controlling for the possible endogeneity of political culture. In our analysis, values specifically related to the political sphere are kept distinct from generically pro-social values. Our results suggest that the latter have no independent impact on PSE.public spending, efficiency, culture

Funding a PAYG pension system: the case of Italy

Italy is characterised by a mature pay-as-you-go social security system and by particularly adverse population projections. Given these trends, the social security contribution rate is expected to increase above its current high level. This hinders the development of employer-provided pension funds and introduces a significant wedge between labour cost and earnings that discourages both labour demand and labour supply. Any proposal to reduce payroll taxes and to reform the system in the direction of partial funding has to cope with the state of Italian public finances. Italy has to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact that imposes constraints on budget deficit and debt trends. Using micro data from the Bank of Italy"s Survey of Household Income and Wealth and official population projections, we estimate future employment trends under different demographic and macroeconomic scenarios and compute the cost of the transition. We show that it would be substantially reduced if positive effects on employment were induced by the payroll tax reduction.

Employment in the Public Sector

This paper presents a model of wage-employment determination in private and public sectors, which allows us to analyze the effects of different institutional arrangements on labor market equilibria. In particular, it focuses on how different degrees of coordination in decision processes affect hiring and wage setting outcomes. Cooperation in unions’ behavior results in wage increases and employment reduction in the private sector, whereas it induces wage moderation and employment expansion in the public sector. Not surprisingly, if public decision units do not fully internalize the aggregate budget constraint in their hiring processes, the public sector wage bill and the level of taxation increase, thus enhancing the crowding out effect on private employment. Such effect appears to be stronger in the presence of encompassing union behavior. An empirical analysis performed on a sample of OECD countries in the period 1960-2000 seems to support the main predictions of the model.public employment, wage bargaining, decentralization

What determines debt intolerance? The role of political and monetary institutions

Why do some states default on their debt more often than others? We argue that sovereign default is the outcome of a political struggle among different groups of citizens. It is more likely to happen if: (i) domestic debt-holders are relatively weak; (ii) the the political costs of the financial turmoil typically triggered by a sovereign bankrupcy are small. We show that these conditions are in turn more likely to be present if a country lacks a well-developed financial system and/or a sufficiently independent central bank.fiscal sustainability, political economy, bank runs, central bank independance, financial development.

Dealing with unexpected shocks to the budget

In this paper we assess the impact of unexpected shocks to real interest rates and GDP on government budgets for nine European Union countries. Shocks are estimated as onestep-ahead forecast errors arising from a recursive bivariate VAR model. To assess the impact on the budgets we use available information on budgetary sensitivities with respect to the business cycle and estimate the sensitivities to changes in interest rates on the basis of the maturity structure of public debts. Our analysis is relevant, in particular, to define what safety margins are needed to avoid the deficit exceeding the 3 per cent Maastricht threshold. The approach followed in this paper differs in two respects from standard analyses aiming at defining budgetary positions that satisfy the Stability and Growth Pact. First, whereas the latter examine only fluctuations in economic activity, we also consider fluctuations in interest rates. Second, whereas standard analyses focus on deviations from trends and define margins for the medium-term cyclically adjusted balance, we examine unexpected shocks and define margins for nominal balances. The results point to significant differences in the required margins across countries, depending on the amplitude of past shocks, the magnitude of automatic stabilizers and the size and maturity structure of the debt. In the case of Italy, the country with the highest debt/GDP ratio and the largest fraction of short-term debt, the impact of unexpected shocks to interest rates may be quite substantial. However, when shocks to interest rates and GDP are considered jointly, other countries (Belgium and Finland) seem to require larger margins.budgeting, Stability and Growth Pact, forecast errors

The quality of public services in Italy

This paper provides a survey of a number of studies conducted in recent years, above all at the Bank of Italy, aiming at assessing the quality and the efficiency of public services in Italy. We consider services provided by the central government (education and civil justice), regional governments (health) and municipalities (local public transportation, waste disposal, water and gas supply, and childcare). The analysis shows in general that Italy lags behind noticeably compared with other countries and there are large regional differences in terms of both quality and efficiency, regardless of the level of government providing the service. The lags seem to be attributable, depending on the case, to agents’ incentives, citizens’ behaviour and the regulation. Furthermore, the analysis emphasizes the need for more information to enhance our understanding of the problems and improve the effectiveness of action taken to counter them.public services, efficiency, decentralization

The public sector pay gap in a selection of Euro area countries

We investigate the public-private wage differentials in ten euro area countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain). To account for differences in employment characteristics between the two sectors, we focus on micro data taken from EU-SILC. The results point to a conditional pay differential in favour of the public sector that is generally higher for women, at the low tail of the wage distribution, in the Education and the Public administration sectors rather than in the Health sector. Notable differences emerge across countries, with Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain exhibiting higher public sector premia than other countries. JEL Classification: J310, J450, O520public/private sector, Wage differentials