Projected sea level rise and the conservation ecology of the Micronesian Megapode (Megapodius laperouse senex) in Palau, Micronesia

Climate change has been a subject of numerous studies. While findings suggest that most biological taxa will be affected by its manifestations, aspects of a species life history may increase its susceptibility to climate change. Given their reliance on environmental sources of heat to incubate their eggs, I examined the vulnerability to climate change of the avian family Megapodiidae. I also assessed habitat use, susceptibility to sea level rise, and the effect of introduced rats and tourist presence, as added stressors to climate change, on the Micronesian Megapode (Megapodius laperouse senex) in Palau. Based on available literature, I employed a trait-based assessment to investigate the vulnerability of 21 species of megapodes to climate change. All species were predicted to experience at least a 2°C increase in mean annual temperature, 12 may experience a moderate or greater fluctuation in rainfall, and 16 would be exposed to rising seas. While the most vulnerable megapodes are intrinsically rare and range restricted, mound nesting species may be more resilient to climate change than others. I examined breeding and foraging habitat use by the mound nesting megapode in the Rock Islands Southern Lagoon Conservation Area (RISL), where it almost exclusively uses low-lying littoral strand habitat for breeding. Megapodes preferentially selected sites that were 1) relatively close to shore, 2) contained large trees, and 3) exhibited greater canopy heights than the surrounding forest. The subspecies foraged in a non-preferential manner and used all littoral habitat with no apparent influence of dominant plant species composition. Using GIS and the latest spatial data, I modelled the effect of three currently accepted scenarios (0.52 m, 0.98 m, and 1.9 m) of sea level rise on their known breeding habitat. The RISL is comprised of 3,857.5 ha of forested cover of which megapodes used 120.8 ha (3.1%) for breeding, with an additional 25.3 ha potentially available to them. Megapodes may lose at least 32.5% to 43.3% of known breeding habitat and 25.7% to 31.3% of potential habitat to inundation, respectively. Using passive chew-tag and call playback surveys, I examined whether introduced rats and tourist presence may negatively affect megapodes in the RISL. Rat detection probability and site occupancy were significantly higher on tourist visited iv (89% and 99%, respectively) compared to tourist-free islands (52% and 73%). I detected significantly more megapodes at stations on tourist-free islands (93%) than tourist visited (47%), but relative abundance was not significantly different between island types. My findings suggested no significant relationship between rats and megapodes, a negative relationship between tourist presence and megapodes, and augmentation of rat populations by tourist presence. I compared the ecology of, and IUCN listed threats for, Micronesian Megapodes in Palau with those in the Mariana Islands. I proposed both the inclusion of an additional climate change related threat based on my sea level rise modelling, and new ranking of all IUCN threats by subspecies. Lastly, I proposed research and data acquisition priorities necessary to fill current gaps in the knowledge of megapodes in Palau and facilitate its long-term conservation

Analysis of Iterative Methods for the Linear Boltzmann Transport Equation

In this article we consider the iterative solution of the linear system of equations arising from the discretisation of the poly-energetic linear Boltzmann transport equation using a discontinuous Galerkin finite element approximation in space, angle, and energy. In particular, we develop preconditioned Richardson iterations which may be understood as generalisations of source iteration in the mono-energetic setting, and derive computable a posteriori bounds for the solver error incurred due to inexact linear algebra, measured in a relevant problem-specific norm. We prove that the convergence of the resulting schemes and a posteriori solver error estimates are independent of the discretisation parameters. We also discuss how the poly-energetic Richardson iteration may be employed as a preconditioner for the generalised minimal residual (GMRES) method. Furthermore, we show that standard implementations of GMRES based on minimising the Euclidean norm of the residual vector can be utilized to yield computable a posteriori solver error estimates at each iteration, through judicious selections of left- and right-preconditioners for the original linear system. The effectiveness of poly-energetic source iteration and preconditioned GMRES, as well as their respective a posteriori solver error estimates, is demonstrated through numerical examples arising in the modelling of photon transport.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figure

Impacts of invasive rats and tourism on a threatened island bird: The Palau Micronesian scrubfowl

SummaryInvasive predators have decimated island biodiversity worldwide. Rats (Rattus spp.) are perhaps the greatest conservation threat to island fauna. The ground nesting Palau Micronesian Scrubfowl Megapodius laperouse senex (Megapodiidae) inhabits many of the islands of Palau\u27s Rock Island Southern Lagoon Conservation Area (RISL) in the western Pacific. These islands are also heavily visited by tourists and support populations of introduced rats, both of which may act as added stressors for the scrubfowl. Using passive chew-tag and call playback surveys on five tourist-visited and five tourist-free islands, we investigated if rats and tourists negatively affect scrubfowl, and if higher rat activity is associated with tourist presence. Rat detection probability and site occupancy were significantly higher on tourist visited (89% and 99%, respectively) compared to tourist-free islands (52% and 73%). Scrubfowl were detected at significantly more stations on tourist-free (93%) than tourist visited (47%) islands and their relative abundance was higher (2.66 and 1.58 birds per station, respectively), although not statistically significantly. While rat occupancy probability likewise had a non-significant negative effect on scrubfowl numbers across islands, our results show a negative relationship between tourist presence and scrubfowl in the RISL. Our findings also suggest that rat populations may be augmented by tourist visitation in the RISL. Although this situation may not seriously affect the scrubfowl, it may be highly detrimental to populations of other threatened island landbirds

History: The San and Its Mission

This book is a re-telling of the story of the mission of the Sydney Adventist Hospital - even today still known fondly to many as the San - based on the many stories and vignettes shared by people, and about people, who lived the San\u27s mission, contributing to a hospital that has had an impact on many lives.This is not a chronological and systematic historical narrative, but it uses the motivation and inspiration of individuals and events to illustrate how the mission of the hospital has been fulfilled through its healing and restorative ministry since 1903. It also illustrates how mission inspired individuals, decisions, strategies and the pioneering work that remains the hallmark of the San

Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

The western Pacific island of Rota is the fourth largest human-inhabited island in the Mariana archipelago and designated an Endemic Bird Area. Between 1982 and 2012, 12 point-transect distance-sampling surveys were conducted to assess bird population status. Surveys did not consistently sample the entire island; thus, we used a ratio estimator to estimate bird abundances in strata not sampled during every survey. Trends in population size were reliably estimated for 11 of 13 bird species, and 7 species declined over the 30-y time series, including the island collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata, white-throated ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Mariana fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, collared kingfisher Todiramphus chloris orii, Micronesian myzomela Myzomela rubratra, black drongo Dicrurus macrocercus, and Mariana crow Corvus kubaryi. The endangered Mariana crow (x̄  =  81 birds, 95% CI 30–202) declined sharply to fewer than 200 individuals in 2012, down from 1,491 birds in 1982 (95% CI  =  815–3,115). Trends increased for white tern Gygis alba, rufous fantail Rhipidura rufifrons mariae, and Micronesian starling Aplonis opaca. Numbers of the endangered Rota white-eye Zosterops rotensis declined from 1982 to the late 1990s but returned to 1980s levels by 2012, resulting in an overall stable trend. Trends for the yellow bittern Ixobrychus sinensis were inconclusive. Eurasian tree sparrow Passer montanus trends were not assessed; however, their numbers in 1982 and 2012 were similar. Occupancy models of the 2012 survey data revealed general patterns of land cover use and detectability among 12 species that could be reliably modeled. Occupancy was not assessed for the Eurasian tree sparrow because of insufficient detections. Based on the 2012 survey, bird distribution and abundance across Rota revealed three general patterns: 1) range restriction, including Mariana crow, Rota white-eye, and Eurasian tree sparrow; 2) widespread distribution, low abundance, including collared kingfisher, island collared-dove, white-throated ground-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, white tern, yellow bittern, black drongo, and Micronesian myzomela; and 3) widespread distribution, high abundance, including rufous fantail and Micronesian starling. The Mariana crow was dispersed around the periphery of the island in steep forested land-cover types. In contrast, the Rota white-eye was restricted to the high-elevation mesa. Only for the white-throated ground-dove was there a significant difference among cover types, with lower occupancy in open field than in forested areas. Vegetation was included in the best-fit occupancy models for yellow bittern, black drongo, Micronesian myzomela, and Micronesian starling, but vegetation type was not a significant variable nor included in the top models for the remaining five species: white tern, island collared-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, collared kingfisher, and rufous fantail. Given declining population trends, the Rota bird-monitoring program could benefit from establishing threshold and alert limits and identifying alternative research and management actions. Continued monitoring and demographic sampling, in conjunction with ecological studies, are needed to understand why most bird species on Rota are declining, identify the causative agents, and assess effectiveness of conservation actions, especially for the Mariana crow

Linking vital rates of landbirds on a tropical island to rainfall and vegetation greenness

Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival) of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus), and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei). Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness); while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the coming decades

Linking vital rates of landbirds on a tropical island to rainfall and vegetation greenness

Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival) of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus), and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei). Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness); while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the coming decades

Efficient High-Order Space-Angle-Energy Polytopic Discontinuous Galerkin Finite Element Methods for Linear Boltzmann Transport

We introduce an $hp$-version discontinuous Galerkin finite element method (DGFEM) for the linear Boltzmann transport problem. A key feature of this new method is that, while offering arbitrary order convergence rates, it may be implemented in an almost identical form to standard multigroup discrete ordinates methods, meaning that solutions can be computed efficiently with high accuracy and in parallel within existing software. This method provides a unified discretisation of the space, angle, and energy domains of the underlying integro-differential equation and naturally incorporates both local mesh and local polynomial degree variation within each of these computational domains. Moreover, general polytopic elements can be handled by the method, enabling efficient discretisations of problems posed on complicated spatial geometries. We study the stability and $hp$-version a priori error analysis of the proposed method, by deriving suitable $hp$-approximation estimates together with a novel inf-sup bound. Numerical experiments highlighting the performance of the method for both polyenergetic and monoenergetic problems are presented.Comment: 27 pages, 2 figure

Quadrature-free polytopic discontinuous Galerkin methods for transport problems

In this article we consider the application of Euler's homogeneous function theorem together with Stokes' theorem to exactly integrate families of polynomial spaces over general polygonal and polyhedral (polytopic) domains in two and three dimensions, respectively. This approach allows for the integrals to be evaluated based on only computing the values of the integrand and its derivatives at the vertices of the polytopic domain, without the need to construct a sub-tessellation of the underlying domain of interest. Here, we present a detailed analysis of the computational complexity of the proposed algorithm and show that this depends on three key factors: the ambient dimension of the underlying polytopic domain; the size of the requested polynomial space to be integrated; and the size of a directed graph related to the polytopic domain. This general approach is then employed to compute the volume integrals arising within the discontinuous Galerkin finite element approximation of the linear transport equation. Numerical experiments are presented which highlight the efficiency of the proposed algorithm when compared to standard quadrature approaches defined on a sub-tessellation of the polytopic elements

Quadrature-Free Polytopic Discontinuous Galerkin Methods for Transport Problems

In this article we consider the application of Euler’s homogeneous function theorem to- gether with Stokes’ theorem to exactly integrate families of polynomial spaces over general polygonal and polyhedral (polytopic) domains in two and three dimensions, respectively. This approach allows for the integrals to be evaluated based on only computing the values of the integrand and its deriva- tives at the vertices of the polytopic domain, without the need to construct a sub-tessellation of the underlying domain of interest. Here, we present a detailed analysis of the computational complexity of the proposed algorithm and show that this depends on three key factors: the ambient dimension of the underlying polytopic domain; the size of the requested polynomial space to be integrated; and the size of a directed graph related to the polytopic domain. This general approach is then employed to com- pute the volume integrals arising within the discontinuous Galerkin finite element approximation of the linear transport equation. Numerical experiments are presented which highlight the efficiency of the proposed algorithm when compared to standard quadrature approaches defined on a sub-tessellation of the polytopic elements