Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO2 storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. Here we present a numerical program that calculates CO2 storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10,000 years. This combines quantitative estimates of geological subsurface CO2 retention, and of surface CO2 leakage. We calculate that realistically well-regulated storage in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0008% per year, with over 98% of the injected CO2 retained in the subsurface over 10,000 years. An unrealistic scenario, where CO2 storage is inadequately regulated, estimates that more than 78% will be retained over 10,000 years. Our modelling results suggest that geological storage of CO2 can be a secure climate change mitigation option, but we note that long-term behaviour of CO2 in the subsurface remains a key uncertainty

Comparative Assessment of Status and Opportunities for Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage and Radioactive Waste Disposal in North America

Aside from the target storage regions being underground, geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) and radioactive waste disposal (RWD) share little in common in North America. The large volume of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) needed to be sequestered along with its relatively benign health effects present a sharp contrast to the limited volumes and hazardous nature of high-level radioactive waste (RW). There is well-documented capacity in North America for 100 years or more of sequestration of CO{sub 2} from coal-fired power plants. Aside from economics, the challenges of GCS include lack of fully established legal and regulatory framework for ownership of injected CO{sub 2}, the need for an expanded pipeline infrastructure, and public acceptance of the technology. As for RW, the USA had proposed the unsaturated tuffs of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as the region's first high-level RWD site before removing it from consideration in early 2009. The Canadian RW program is currently evolving with options that range from geologic disposal to both decentralized and centralized permanent storage in surface facilities. Both the USA and Canada have established legal and regulatory frameworks for RWD. The most challenging technical issue for RWD is the need to predict repository performance on extremely long time scales (10{sup 4}-10{sup 6} years). While attitudes toward nuclear power are rapidly changing as fossil-fuel costs soar and changes in climate occur, public perception remains the most serious challenge to opening RW repositories. Because of the many significant differences between RWD and GCS, there is little that can be shared between them from regulatory, legal, transportation, or economic perspectives. As for public perception, there is currently an opportunity to engage the public on the benefits and risks of both GCS and RWD as they learn more about the urgent energy-climate crisis created by greenhouse gas emissions from current fossil-fuel combustion practices

Mitochondrial function as a determinant of life span

Average human life expectancy has progressively increased over many decades largely due to improvements in nutrition, vaccination, antimicrobial agents, and effective treatment/prevention of cardiovascular disease, cancer, etc. Maximal life span, in contrast, has changed very little. Caloric restriction (CR) increases maximal life span in many species, in concert with improvements in mitochondrial function. These effects have yet to be demonstrated in humans, and the duration and level of CR required to extend life span in animals is not realistic in humans. Physical activity (voluntary exercise) continues to hold much promise for increasing healthy life expectancy in humans, but remains to show any impact to increase maximal life span. However, longevity in Caenorhabditis elegans is related to activity levels, possibly through maintenance of mitochondrial function throughout the life span. In humans, we reported a progressive decline in muscle mitochondrial DNA abundance and protein synthesis with age. Other investigators also noted age-related declines in muscle mitochondrial function, which are related to peak oxygen uptake. Long-term aerobic exercise largely prevented age-related declines in mitochondrial DNA abundance and function in humans and may increase spontaneous activity levels in mice. Notwithstanding, the impact of aerobic exercise and activity levels on maximal life span is uncertain. It is proposed that age-related declines in mitochondrial content and function not only affect physical function, but also play a major role in regulation of life span. Regular aerobic exercise and prevention of adiposity by healthy diet may increase healthy life expectancy and prolong life span through beneficial effects at the level of the mitochondrion

420,000 year assessment of fault leakage rates shows geological carbon storage is secure

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is routinely cited as a cost effective tool for climate change mitigation. CCS can directly reduce industrial CO2 emissions and is essential for the retention of CO2 extracted from the atmosphere. To be effective as a climate change mitigation tool, CO2 must be securely retained for 10,000 years (10 ka) with a leakage rate of below 0.01% per year of the total amount of CO2 injected. Migration of CO2 back to the atmosphere via leakage through geological faults is a potential high impact risk to CO2 storage integrity. Here, we calculate for the first time natural leakage rates from a 420 ka paleo-record of CO2 leakage above a naturally occurring, faulted, CO2 reservoir in Arizona, USA. Surface travertine (CaCO3) deposits provide evidence of vertical CO2 leakage linked to known faults. U-Th dating of travertine deposits shows leakage varies along a single fault and that individual seeps have lifespans of up to 200 ka. Whilst the total volumes of CO2 required to form the travertine deposits are high, time-averaged leakage equates to a linear rate of less than 0.01%/yr. Hence, even this natural geological storage site, which would be deemed to be of too high risk to be selected for engineered geologic storage, is adequate to store CO2 for climate mitigation purposes

Spatial cointegration and heteroscedasticity

Spatial autocorrelation, Spatial autoregression, Spatial nonstationarity, Spatial cointegration, Unobserved heteroscedasticity, C21, C40, C51, J60,

Changes in the chemistry of shallow groundwater related to the 2008 injection of CO2 at the ZERT field site, Bozeman, Montana

Approximately 300 kg/day of food-grade CO2 was injected through a perforated pipe placed horizontally 2–2.3 m deep during July 9–August 7, 2008 at the MSU-ZERT field test to evaluate atmospheric and near-surface monitoring and detection techniques applicable to the subsurface storage and potential leakage of CO2. As part of this multidisciplinary research project, 80 samples of water were collected from 10 shallow monitoring wells (1.5 or 3.0 m deep) installed 1–6 m from the injection pipe, at the southwestern end of the slotted section (zone VI), and from two distant monitoring wells. The samples were collected before, during, and following CO2 injection. The main objective of study was to investigate changes in the concentrations of major, minor, and trace inorganic and organic compounds during and following CO2 injection. The ultimate goals were (1) to better understand the potential of groundwater quality impacts related to CO2 leakage from deep storage operations, (2) to develop geochemical tools that could provide early detection of CO2 intrusion into underground sources of drinking water (USDW), and (3) to test the predictive capabilities of geochemical codes against field data. Field determinations showed rapid and systematic changes in pH (7.0–5.6), alkalinity (400–1,330 mg/l as HCO3), and electrical conductance (600–1,800 μS/cm) following CO2 injection in samples collected from the 1.5 m-deep wells. Laboratory results show major increases in the concentrations of Ca (90–240 mg/l), Mg (25–70 mg/l), Fe (5–1,200 ppb), and Mn (5–1,400 ppb) following CO2 injection. These chemical changes could provide early detection of CO2 leakage into shallow groundwater from deep storage operations. Dissolution of observed carbonate minerals and desorption-ion exchange resulting from lowered pH values following CO2 injection are the likely geochemical processes responsible for the observed increases in the concentrations of solutes; concentrations generally decreased temporarily following four significant precipitation events. The DOC values obtained are 5 ± 2 mg/l, and the variations do not correlate with CO2 injection. CO2 injection, however, is responsible for detection of BTEX (e.g. benzene, 0–0.8 ppb), mobilization of metals, the lowered pH values, and increases in the concentrations of other solutes in groundwater. The trace metal and BTEX concentrations are all significantly below the maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). Sequential leaching of core samples is being carried out to investigate the source of metals and other solutes