Sensitivity Analysis for a Scenario-Based Reliability Prediction Model

As a popular means for capturing behavioural requirements, scenariosshow how components interact to provide system-level functionality.If component reliability information is available, scenarioscan be used to perform early system reliability assessment. Inprevious work we presented an automated approach for predictingsoftware system reliability that extends a scenario specificationto model (1) the probability of component failure, and (2) scenariotransition probabilities. Probabilistic behaviour models ofthe system are then synthesized from the extended scenario specification.From the system behaviour model, reliability predictioncan be computed. This paper complements our previous work andpresents a sensitivity analysis that supports reasoning about howcomponent reliability and usage profiles impact on the overall systemreliability. For this purpose, we present how the system reliabilityvaries as a function of the components reliabilities and thescenario transition probabilities. Taking into account the concurrentnature of component-based software systems, we also analysethe effect of implied scenarios prevention into the sensitivity analysisof our reliability prediction technique

Using presence-absence data to establish reserve selection procedures that are robust to temporal species turnover

Previous studies suggest that a network of nature reserves with maximum efficiency (obtained by selecting the minimum area such that each species is represented once) is likely to be insufficient to maintain species in the network over time. Here, we test the performance of three selection strategies which require presence-absence data, two of them previously proposed (multiple representations and selecting an increasing percentage of each species' range) and a novel one based on selecting the site where each species has exhibited a higher permanence rate in the past. Multiple representations appear to be a safer strategy than selecting a percentage of range because the former gives priority to rarer species while the latter favours the most widespread. The most effective strategy was the one based on the permanence rate, indicating that the robustness of reserve networks can be improved by adopting reserve selection procedures that integrate information about the relative value of sites. This strategy was also very efficient, suggesting that the investment made in the monitoring schemes may be compensated for by a lower cost in reserve acquisition

Product renovation and shared ownership: sustainable routes to satisfying the world's growing demand for goods

It has been estimated that by 2030 the number of people who are wealthy enough to be considered as middle class consumers will have tripled. This will have a dramatic impact on the demands for primary materials and energy. Much work has been carried out on sustainable ways of meeting the World’s energy demands and some work has been carried out on the sustainable production and consumption of goods. It has been estimated that with improvements in design and manufacturing it is possible to reduce the primary material requirements by 30% to produce the current demand for goods. Whilst this is a crucial step on the production side, there will still be a doubling of primary material requirements by the end of the century because of an absolute rise in demand for goods and services. It is therefore clear that the consumption of products must also be explored. This is a key areas of research for the UK INDEMAND centre, which is investigating ways of reducing the UK’s industrial energy demand and demand for energy intensive materials. Our ongoing work shows that two strategies would result in considerable reductions in the demand for primary materials: product longevity and using goods more intensively (which may requires increased durability). Product longevity and durability are not new ideas, but ones that can be applied across a raft of goods as methods of reducing the consumption of materials. With long life products there is a potential risk of outdated design and obsolescence, consequently there is a need to ensure upgradability and adaptability are incorporated at the design stage. If products last longer, then the production of new products can be diverted to emerging markets rather than the market for replacement goods. There are many goods which are only used occasionally; these goods do not normally wear out. The total demand for such could be drastically reduced if they were shared with other people. Sharing of goods has traditionally been conducted between friends or by hiring equipment. The use of modern communication systems and social media could enable the development of sharing co-ops and swap spaces that will increase the utilisation of goods and hence reduce the demand for new goods. This could also increase access to a range of goods for those on low incomes. From a series of workshops it has been found that the principal challenges are sociological rather than technological. This paper contains a discussion of these challenges and explores possible futures where these two strategies have been adopted. In addition, the barriers and opportunities that these strategies offer for consumers and businesses are identified, and areas where government policy could be instigated to bring about change are highlighted

Arruda: (Ruta graveolens L.)

Publicação com informações sintéticas sobre a arruda e sua aplicação medicinal.bitstream/item/100482/1/Folder-arruda.pd