Investigating poultry trade patterns to guide avian influenza surveillance and control: a case study in Vietnam

Live bird markets are often the focus of surveillance activities monitoring avian influenza viruses (AIV) circulating in poultry. However, in order to ensure a high sensitivity of virus detection and effectiveness of management actions, poultry management practices features influencing AIV dynamics need to be accounted for in the design of surveillance programmes. In order to address this knowledge gap, a cross-sectional survey was conducted through interviews with 791 traders in 18 Vietnamese live bird markets. Markets greatly differed according to the sources from which poultry was obtained, and their connections to other markets through the movements of their traders. These features, which could be informed based on indicators that are easy to measure, suggest that markets could be used as sentinels for monitoring virus strains circulating in specific segments of the poultry production sector. AIV spread within markets was modelled. Due to the high turn-over of poultry, viral amplification was likely to be minimal in most of the largest markets. However, due to the large number of birds being introduced each day, and challenges related to cleaning and disinfection, environmental accumulation of viruses at markets may take place, posing a threat to the poultry production sector and to public health

Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods-wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling-we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens

A large-scale study of a poultry trading network in Bangladesh: implications for control and surveillance of avian influenza viruses

Since its first report in 2007, avian influenza (AI) has been endemic in Bangladesh. While live poultry marketing is widespread throughout the country and known to influence AI dissemination and persistence, trading patterns have not been described. The aim of this study is to assess poultry trading practices and features of the poultry trading networks which could promote AI spread, and their potential implications for disease control and surveillance. Data on poultry trading practices was collected from 849 poultry traders during a cross-sectional survey in 138 live bird markets (LBMs) across 17 different districts of Bangladesh. The quantity and origins of traded poultry were assessed for each poultry type in surveyed LBMs. The network of contacts between farms and LBMs resulting from commercial movements of live poultry was constructed to assess its connectivity and to identify the key premises influencing it

Mapping and modelling the geographical distribution and environmental limits of podoconiosis in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND Ethiopia is assumed to have the highest burden of podoconiosis globally, but the geographical distribution and environmental limits and correlates are yet to be fully investigated. In this paper we use data from a nationwide survey to address these issues. METHODOLOGY Our analyses are based on data arising from the integrated mapping of podoconiosis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) conducted in 2013, supplemented by data from an earlier mapping of LF in western Ethiopia in 2008-2010. The integrated mapping used woreda (district) health offices' reports of podoconiosis and LF to guide selection of survey sites. A suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to investigate environmental limits and predict the probability of podoconiosis occurrence. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations of Ethiopia. In 41.9% of surveyed districts no cases of podoconiosis were identified, with all districts in Affar, Dire Dawa, Somali and Gambella regional states lacking the disease. The disease was most common, with lymphoedema positivity rate exceeding 5%, in the central highlands of Ethiopia, in Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional states. BRT modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with population density and clay content. Based on the BRT model, we estimate that in 2010, 34.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.2-51.7) million people (i.e. 43.8%; 95% CI: 25.3-64.8% of Ethiopia's national population) lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis. CONCLUSIONS Podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated, but occurs in distinct geographical regions that are tied to identifiable environmental factors. The resultant maps can be used to guide programme planning and implementation and estimate disease burden in Ethiopia. This work provides a framework with which the geographical limits of podoconiosis could be delineated at a continental scale

Using Risk Assessment as Part of a Systems Approach to the Control and Prevention of HPAIV H5N1

Since its emergence in China in 1996, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 has spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Countries had to promptly implement control and prevention measures. Numerous research and capacity building initiatives were conducted in the affected regions to improve the capacity of national animal health services to support the development of risk-based mitigation strategies. This paper reviews and discusses risk assessments initiated in several South-East Asian and African countries under one of these projects. Despite important data gaps, the risk assessment results improved the ability of policy makers to design appropriate risk management policies. Disease risk was strongly influenced by various human behavioral factors. The ongoing circulation of HPAIV H5N1 in several Asian countries and in Egypt, despite major disease control efforts, supports the need for an interdisciplinary approach to development of tailored risk management policies, in accordance with the EcoHealth paradigm and the broad concept of risk governance. In particular, active stakeholders engagement and integration of economic and social studies into the policy making process are needed to optimize compliance and sustainable behavioral changes, thereby increasing the effectiveness of mitigation strategies

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Monitoring and evaluating the impact of national school-based deworming in Kenya: study design and baseline results.

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of countries in Africa and elsewhere are developing national plans for the control of neglected tropical diseases. A key component of such plans is school-based deworming (SBD) for the control of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) and schistosomiasis. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of national programmes is essential to ensure they are achieving their stated aims and to evaluate when to reduce the frequency of treatment or when to halt it altogether. The article describes the M&E design of the Kenya national SBD programme and presents results from the baseline survey conducted in early 2012. METHODS: The M&E design involves a stratified series of pre- and post-intervention, repeat cross-sectional surveys in a representative sample of 200 schools (over 20,000 children) across Kenya. Schools were sampled based on previous knowledge of STH endemicity and were proportional to population size. Stool (and where relevant urine) samples were obtained for microscopic examination and in a subset of schools; finger-prick blood samples were collected to estimate haemoglobin concentration. Descriptive and spatial analyses were conducted. The evaluation measured both prevalence and intensity of infection. RESULTS: Overall, 32.4% of children were infected with at least one STH species, with Ascaris lumbricoides as the most common species detected. The overall prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni was 2.1%, while in the Coast Province the prevalence of S. haematobium was 14.8%. There was marked geographical variation in the prevalence of species infection at school, district and province levels. The prevalence of hookworm infection was highest in Western Province (25.1%), while A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura prevalence was highest in the Rift Valley (27.1% and 11.9%). The lowest prevalence was observed in the Rift Valley for hookworm (3.5%), in the Coast for A. lumbricoides (1.0%), and in Nyanza for T. trichiura (3.6%). The prevalence of S. mansoni was most common in Western Province (4.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The current findings are consistent with the known spatial ecology of STH and schistosome infections and provide an important empirical basis on which to evaluate the impact of regular mass treatment through the school system in Kenya

Meeting the global target in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health care services in low- And middle-income countries

Introduction: Improving reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) care services is imperative for reducing maternal and child mortality. Many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are striving to achieve RMNCH-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We monitored progress, made projections, and calculated the average annual rate of change needed to achieve universal (100%) access of RMNCH service indicators by 2030. Methods: We extracted Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data of 75 LMICs to estimate the coverage of RMNCH indicators and composite coverage index (CCI) to measure health system strengths. Bayesian linear regression models were fitted to predict the coverage of indicators and the probability of achieving targets. Results: The projection analysis included 64 countries with available information for at least 2 DHS rounds. No countries are projected to reach universal CCI by 2030; only Brazil, Cambodia, Colombia, Honduras, Morocco, and Sierra Leone will have more than 90% CCI. None of the LMICs will achieve universal coverage of all RMNCH indicators by 2030, although some may achieve universal coverage for specific services. To meet targets for universal service access by 2030, most LMICs must attain a 2-fold increase in the coverage of indicators from 2019 to 2030. Coverage of RMNCH indicators, the probability of target attainments, and the required rate of increase vary significantly across the spectrum of sociodemographic disadvantages. Most countries with poor historical and current trends for RMNCH coverage are likely to experience a similar scenario in 2030. Countries with lower coverage had higher disparities across the subgroups of wealth, place of residence, and women's/mother's education and age; these disparities are projected to persist in 2030. Conclusion: None of the LMICs will meet the SDG RMNCH 2030 targets without scaling up essential RMNCH interventions, reducing gaps in coverage, and reaching marginalized and disadvantaged populations.MMH acknowledges the financial assistance from the University of Queensland and the Commonwealth Government of Australia to undertake his PhD

Model-based geostatistical mapping of the prevalence of onchocerca volvulus in West Africa.

Background: The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. Methods and Findings: Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson’s correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2–90%) in 1975. Conclusions and Significance: This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools

Combined Spatial Prediction of Schistosomiasis and Soil-Transmitted Helminthiasis in Sierra Leone: A Tool for Integrated Disease Control

Two forms of schistosomiasis or bilharzia (intestinal and urogenital) exist in Sierra Leone. The main control strategy for this disease currently is through mass drug administration (MDA) according to the World Health Organization recommended anthelminthic chemotherapy guidelines, and others include snail control, behavior change, and safe water, sanitation and hygiene. Survey on distribution and prevalence of the disease is vital to the planning of MDA in each district. The distribution of intestinal schistosomiasis in the country has been reported previously. The current national survey showed that urogenital schistosomiasis has a specific focal distribution particularly in the central and eastern regions of the country, most prevalent in Bo (24.6%), Koinadugu (20.4%) and Kono (25.3%) districts. Using a simple probabilistic model, this map was combined with the previously reported maps on intestinal schistosomiasis and the combined schistosomiasis prevalence was estimated. The combined schistosomiasis map highlights the presence of high-risk communities in an extensive area in the northeastern half of the country, which provides a tool for planning the national MDA activities