Eliciting Dirichlet and Gaussian copula prior distributions for multinomial models

In this paper, we propose novel methods of quantifying expert opinion about prior distributions for multinomial models. Two different multivariate priors are elicited using median and quartile assessments of the multinomial probabilities. First, we start by eliciting a univariate beta distribution for the probability of each category. Then we elicit the hyperparameters of the Dirichlet distribution, as a tractable conjugate prior, from those of the univariate betas through various forms of reconciliation using least-squares techniques. However, a multivariate copula function will give a more flexible correlation structure between multinomial parameters if it is used as their multivariate prior distribution. So, second, we use beta marginal distributions to construct a Gaussian copula as a multivariate normal distribution function that binds these marginals and expresses the dependence structure between them. The proposed method elicits a positive-definite correlation matrix of this Gaussian copula. The two proposed methods are designed to be used through interactive graphical software written in Java

Dietary supplement use among health care professionals enrolled in an online curriculum on herbs and dietary supplements

BACKGROUND: Although many health care professionals (HCPs) in the United States have been educated about and recommend dietary supplements, little is known about their personal use of dietary supplements and factors associated with their use. METHODS: We surveyed HCPs at the point of their enrollment in an on-line course about dietary supplements between September, 2004 and May, 2005. We used multivariable logistic regression to analyze demographic and practice factors associated with use of dietary supplements. RESULTS: Of the 1249 health care professionals surveyed, 81 % reported having used a vitamin, mineral, or other non-herbal dietary supplements in the last week. Use varied by profession with highest rates among nurses (88%), physician assistants or nurse practitioners (84 %) and the lowest rates among pharmacists (66%) and trainees (72%). The most frequently used supplements were multivitamins (60%), calcium (40%), vitamin B (31%), vitamin C (30%), and fish oil (24%). Factors associated with higher supplement use were older age, female, high knowledge of dietary supplements, and discussing dietary supplements with patients. In our adjusted model, nurses were more likely than other professionals to use a multivitamin and students were more likely to use calcium. CONCLUSION: Among HCPs enrolled in an on-line course about dietary supplements, women, older clinicians, those with higher knowledge and those who talk with patients about dietary supplements had higher use of dietary supplements. Additional research is necessary to understand the impact of professionals' personal use of dietary supplements on communication with patients about them

Residual sleep disturbance and risk of relapse during the continuation/maintenance phase treatment of major depressive disorder with the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor fluoxetine

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Relapse of major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common clinical problem. This study was designed to determine whether residual sleep disturbance (insomnia and hypersomnia) predict risk of relapse during the continuation and maintenance treatment of MDD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 570 patients with MDD were treated with open-label, flexible dose fluoxetine (range 20 to 60 mg; mean dose = 45.8 mg/day; SD = 15.1) for 12 weeks. Under double blind conditions, 262 patients who achieved clinical response were randomly assigned to continue fluoxetine or to switch to placebo for 52 weeks or until relapse. Residual sleep disturbance during the baseline visit of the double-blind phase was assessed using items 4, 5, 6 (insomnia) and 22, 23, 24 (hypersomnia) of the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS). Survival analysis was utilized to determine the effect of residual sleep disturbance on risk of relapse.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The severities of early (<it>P </it>> 0.05), middle (<it>P </it>> 0.05), late (<it>P </it>> 0.05), or total (<it>P </it>> 0.05) residual insomnia were not found to significantly predict risk of relapse during continuation and maintenance-phase treatment. Similarly, the severities of early bedtime (<it>P </it>> 0.05), oversleeping (<it>P </it>> 0.05), napping (<it>P </it>> 0.05), or total (<it>P </it>> 0.05) residual hypersomnia were not found to significantly predict risk of relapse during continuation and maintenance-phase treatment.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study did not identify the severity of residual sleep disturbance among fluoxetine responders to predict risk of MDD relapse. The size of our sample may have precluded us from identifying more modest effects of residual sleep disturbance on the risk of relapse in MDD patients. Future studies are needed to further explore the relationship between residual sleep disturbance and relapse in MDD.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00427128</p

Heavy metals in the irrigation water, soils and vegetables in the Philippi horticultural area in the Western Cape Province of South Africa

The aims of this study were to investigate the extent of heavy metal contamination in the Philippi horticultural area in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. Concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were determined in the irrigation water, soils and vegetables in both winter and summer cropping seasons with an ICP-AES and tested against certified standards. Differences were found in heavy metal concentrations between the winter and summer cropping seasons in the irrigation water, soils and vegetables. Certain heavy metals exceeded the maximum permissible concentrations in the irrigation water, soils and vegetables produced in South Africa. These toxic concentrations were predominantly found in the summer cropping season for the soils and in the crops produced in winter. It is thus suggested that further studies are carried out in the Philippi horticultural area to determine the sources of the heavy metals to try and mitigate the inputs thereof and therefore reduce the amount of heavy metals entering the human food chain.ISI & Scopu

Synergies, tensions and challenges in HIV prevention, treatment and cure research: exploratory conversations with HIV experts in South Africa

Background: The ethical concerns associated with HIV prevention and treatment research have been widely explored in South Africa over the past 3 decades. However, HIV cure research is relatively new to the region and significant ethical and social challenges are anticipated. There has been no published empirical enquiry in Africa into key informant perspectives on HIV cure research. Consequently, this study was conducted to gain preliminary data from South African HIV clinicians, researchers and activists. Methods: In-depth interviews were conducted on a purposive sample of fourteen key informants in South Africa. Audiotaped interviews were transcribed verbatim with concurrent thematic analysis. The perspectives of HIV clinicians, researchers and activists were captured. Analyst triangulation occurred as the data were analysed by three authors independently. Results: The rapid evolution of HIV cure research agendas was prominent with participants expressing some concern that the global North was driving the cure agenda. Participants described a symbiotic relationship between cure, treatment and prevention research necessitating collaboration. Assessing and managing knowledge and expectations around HIV cure research emerged as a central theme related to challenges to constructing ‘cure’ - how patients understand the idea of cure is important in explaining the complexity of cure research especially in the South African context where understanding of science is often challenging. Managing expectations and avoiding curative misconception will have implications for consent processes. Unique strategies in cure research could include treatment interruption, which has the potential to create therapeutic and ethical conflict and will be perceived as a significant risk. Ethical challenges in cure research will impact on informed consent and community engagement. Conclusions: It was encouraging to note the desire for synergy amongst researchers and clinicians working in the fields of prevention, treatment and cure. Translation of complex HIV cure science into lay language is critical. Moving forward, RECs must be adequately constituted with scientific expertise and community representation when reviewing cure protocols. It is hoped that knowledge and resource sharing in the context of collaboration between research scientists working in cure and those working in treatment and prevention will accelerate progress towards cur

A Recombinant Avian Infectious Bronchitis Virus Expressing a Heterologous Spike Gene Belonging to the 4/91 Serotype

We have shown previously that replacement of the spike (S) gene of the apathogenic IBV strain Beau-R with that from the pathogenic strain of the same serotype, M41, resulted in an apathogenic virus, BeauR-M41(S), that conferred protection against challenge with M41 [1]. We have constructed a recombinant IBV, BeauR-4/91(S), with the genetic backbone of Beau-R but expressing the spike protein of the pathogenic IBV strain 4/91(UK), which belongs to a different serogroup as Beaudette or M41. Similar to our previous findings with BeauR-M41(S), clinical signs observations showed that the S gene of the pathogenic 4/91 virus did not confer pathogenicity to the rIBV BeauR-4/91(S). Furthermore, protection studies showed there was homologous protection; BeauR-4/91(S) conferred protection against challenge with wild type 4/91 virus as shown by the absence of clinical signs, IBV RNA assessed by qRT-PCR and the fact that no virus was isolated from tracheas removed from birds primarily infected with BeauR-4/91(S) and challenged with IBV 4/91(UK). A degree of heterologous protection against M41 challenge was observed, albeit at a lower level

Radiotherapy Suppresses Angiogenesis in Mice through TGF-βRI/ALK5-Dependent Inhibition of Endothelial Cell Sprouting

BACKGROUND: Radiotherapy is widely used to treat cancer. While rapidly dividing cancer cells are naturally considered the main target of radiotherapy, emerging evidence indicates that radiotherapy also affects endothelial cell functions, and possibly also their angiogenic capacity. In spite of its clinical relevance, such putative anti-angiogenic effect of radiotherapy has not been thoroughly characterized. We have investigated the effect of ionizing radiation on angiogenesis using in vivo, ex vivo and in vitro experimental models in combination with genetic and pharmacological interventions. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we show that high doses ionizing radiation locally suppressed VEGF- and FGF-2-induced Matrigel plug angiogenesis in mice in vivo and prevented endothelial cell sprouting from mouse aortic rings following in vivo or ex vivo irradiation. Quiescent human endothelial cells exposed to ionizing radiation in vitro resisted apoptosis, demonstrated reduced sprouting, migration and proliferation capacities, showed enhanced adhesion to matrix proteins, and underwent premature senescence. Irradiation induced the expression of P53 and P21 proteins in endothelial cells, but p53 or p21 deficiency and P21 silencing did not prevent radiation-induced inhibition of sprouting or proliferation. Radiation induced Smad-2 phosphorylation in skin in vivo and in endothelial cells in vitro. Inhibition of the TGF-beta type I receptor ALK5 rescued deficient endothelial cell sprouting and migration but not proliferation in vitro and restored defective Matrigel plug angiogenesis in irradiated mice in vivo. ALK5 inhibition, however, did not rescue deficient proliferation. Notch signaling, known to hinder angiogenesis, was activated by radiation but its inhibition, alone or in combination with ALK5 inhibition, did not rescue suppressed proliferation. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that irradiation of quiescent endothelial cells suppresses subsequent angiogenesis and that ALK5 is a critical mediator of this suppression. These results extend our understanding of radiotherapy-induced endothelial dysfunctions, relevant to both therapeutic and unwanted effects of radiotherapy