Climate Variability and Ross River Virus Transmission in Townsville Region, Australia 1985 to 1996

Background How climate variability affects the transmission of infectious diseases at a regional level remains unclear. In this paper, we assessed the impact of climate variation on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission in the Townsville region, Queensland, north-east Australia. Methods Population-based information was obtained on monthly variations in RRv cases, climatic factors, sea level, and population growth between 1985 and 1996. Cross-correlations were computed for a series of associations between climate variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity and high tide) and the monthly incidence of RRv disease over a range of time lags. The impact of climate variability on RRv transmission was assessed using the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Results There were significant correlations of the monthly incidence of RRv to rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity, all at a lag of 2 months, and high tide in the current month. The results of SARIMA models show that monthly average rainfall (β=0.0012, p=0.04) and high tide (β=0.0262, p=0.01) were significantly associated with RRv transmission, although temperature and relative humidity did not seem to have played an important role in the Townsville region. Conclusions Rainfall, and high tide were likely to be key determinants of RRv transmission in the Townsville region

Partial Covering Arrays: Algorithms and Asymptotics

A covering array $\mathsf{CA}(N;t,k,v)$ is an $N\times k$ array with entries in $\{1, 2, \ldots , v\}$, for which every $N\times t$ subarray contains each $t$-tuple of $\{1, 2, \ldots , v\}^t$ among its rows. Covering arrays find application in interaction testing, including software and hardware testing, advanced materials development, and biological systems. A central question is to determine or bound $\mathsf{CAN}(t,k,v)$, the minimum number $N$ of rows of a $\mathsf{CA}(N;t,k,v)$. The well known bound $\mathsf{CAN}(t,k,v)=O((t-1)v^t\log k)$ is not too far from being asymptotically optimal. Sensible relaxations of the covering requirement arise when (1) the set $\{1, 2, \ldots , v\}^t$ need only be contained among the rows of at least $(1-\epsilon)\binom{k}{t}$ of the $N\times t$ subarrays and (2) the rows of every $N\times t$ subarray need only contain a (large) subset of $\{1, 2, \ldots , v\}^t$. In this paper, using probabilistic methods, significant improvements on the covering array upper bound are established for both relaxations, and for the conjunction of the two. In each case, a randomized algorithm constructs such arrays in expected polynomial time

Associations between food group intakes and circulating insulin-like growth factor-I in the UK Biobank: a cross-sectional analysis

PURPOSE: Circulating insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) concentrations have been positively associated with risk of several common cancers and inversely associated with risk of bone fractures. Intakes of some foods have been associated with increased circulating IGF-I concentrations; however, evidence remains inconclusive. Our aim was to assess cross-sectional associations of food group intakes with circulating IGF-I concentrations in the UK Biobank. METHODS: At recruitment, the UK Biobank participants reported their intake of commonly consumed foods. From these questions, intakes of total vegetables, fresh fruit, red meat, processed meat, poultry, oily fish, non-oily fish, and cheese were estimated. Serum IGF-I concentrations were measured in blood samples collected at recruitment. After exclusions, a total of 438,453 participants were included in this study. Multivariable linear regression was used to assess the associations of food group intakes with circulating IGF-I concentrations. RESULTS: Compared to never consumers, participants who reported consuming oily fish or non-oily fish ≥ 2 times/week had 1.25 nmol/L (95% confidence interval:1.19–1.31) and 1.16 nmol/L (1.08–1.24) higher IGF-I concentrations, respectively. Participants who reported consuming poultry ≥ 2 times/week had 0.87 nmol/L (0.80–0.94) higher IGF-I concentrations than those who reported never consuming poultry. There were no strong associations between other food groups and IGF-I concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: We found positive associations between oily and non-oily fish intake and circulating IGF-I concentrations. A weaker positive association of IGF-I with poultry intake was also observed. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms which might explain these associations

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Barmah Forest Virus Disease in Queensland, Australia

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland

Shared care: a pathway for the rejuvenation of home haemodialysis?

There much evidence for the benefits to patients of being able to manage their own haemodialysis rather following the thrice weekly model of most in-centre dialysis programmes. Numbers of patients dialysing at home remains disappointingly small and there are considerable variations between renal centres. Shared care models have been promoted as a route of encouraging greater take-up of home haemodialysis (HHD). There is currently little available evidence to support this assertion. Barriers have been identified to increasing self-management by haemodialysis patients, many of which apply to both shared care and HHD programmes. Overcoming the barriers, many of which are institutional is key to increasing numbers of patients dialysing at home. The development of shared care initiatives alone will not foster greater HHD engagement rather the cultural and other barriers to both must be overcome if such growth is to be seen

Conserved presence of G-quadruplex forming sequences in the Long Terminal Repeat Promoter of Lentiviruses

G-quadruplexes (G4s) are secondary structures of nucleic acids that epigenetically regulate cellular processes. In the human immunodeficiency lentivirus 1 (HIV-1), dynamic G4s are located in the unique viral LTR promoter. Folding of HIV-1 LTR G4s inhibits viral transcription; stabilization by G4 ligands intensifies this effect. Cellular proteins modulate viral transcription by inducing/unfolding LTR G4s. We here expanded our investigation on the presence of LTR G4s to all lentiviruses. G4s in the 5'-LTR U3 region were completely conserved in primate lentiviruses. A G4 was also present in a cattle-infecting lentivirus. All other non-primate lentiviruses displayed hints of less stable G4s. In primate lentiviruses, the possibility to fold into G4s was highly conserved among strains. LTR G4 sequences were very similar among phylogenetically related primate viruses, while they increasingly differed in viruses that diverged early from a common ancestor. A strong correlation between primate lentivirus LTR G4s and Sp1/NF\u3baB binding sites was found. All LTR G4s folded: their complexity was assessed by polymerase stop assay. Our data support a role of the lentiviruses 5'-LTR G4 region as control centre of viral transcription, where folding/unfolding of G4s and multiple recruitment of factors based on both sequence and structure may take place

Weather Variability, Tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone Region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention

From Classical Genetics to Quantitative Genetics to Systems Biology: Modeling Epistasis

Gene expression data has been used in lieu of phenotype in both classical and quantitative genetic settings. These two disciplines have separate approaches to measuring and interpreting epistasis, which is the interaction between alleles at different loci. We propose a framework for estimating and interpreting epistasis from a classical experiment that combines the strengths of each approach. A regression analysis step accommodates the quantitative nature of expression measurements by estimating the effect of gene deletions plus any interaction. Effects are selected by significance such that a reduced model describes each expression trait. We show how the resulting models correspond to specific hierarchical relationships between two regulator genes and a target gene. These relationships are the basic units of genetic pathways and genomic system diagrams. Our approach can be extended to analyze data from a variety of experiments, multiple loci, and multiple environments

The Complexity of Vascular and Non-Vascular Complications of Diabetes: The Hong Kong Diabetes Registry

Diabetes is a complex disease characterized by chronic hyperglycemia and multiple phenotypes. In 1995, we used a doctor-nurse-clerk team and structured protocol to establish the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry in a quality improvement program. By 2009, we had accrued 2616 clinical events in 9588 Chinese type 2 diabetic patients with a follow-up duration of 6 years. The detailed phenotypes at enrollment and follow-up medications have allowed us to develop a series of risk equations to predict multiple endpoints with high sensitivity and specificity. In this prospective database, we were able to validate findings from clinical trials in real practice, confirm close links between cardiovascular and renal disease, and demonstrate the emerging importance of cancer as a leading cause of death. In addition to serving as a tool for risk stratification and quality assurance, ongoing data analysis of the registry also reveals secular changes in disease patterns and identifies unmet needs

Towards strange metallic holography

We initiate a holographic model building approach to `strange metallic' phenomenology. Our model couples a neutral Lifshitz-invariant quantum critical theory, dual to a bulk gravitational background, to a finite density of gapped probe charge carriers, dually described by D-branes. In the physical regime of temperature much lower than the charge density and gap, we exhibit anomalous scalings of the temperature and frequency dependent conductivity. Choosing the dynamical critical exponent $z$ appropriately we can match the non-Fermi liquid scalings, such as linear resistivity, observed in strange metal regimes. As part of our investigation we outline three distinct string theory realizations of Lifshitz geometries: from F theory, from polarised branes, and from a gravitating charged Fermi gas. We also identify general features of renormalisation group flow in Lifshitz theories, such as the appearance of relevant charge-charge interactions when $z \geq 2$. We outline a program to extend this model building approach to other anomalous observables of interest such as the Hall conductivity.Comment: 71 pages, 8 figure