The effect of flares on total solar irradiance

Flares are powerful energy releases occurring in stellar atmospheres. Solar flares, the most intense energy bursts in the solar system, are however hardly noticeable in the total solar luminosity. Consequently, the total amount of energy they radiate 1) remains largely unknown and 2) has been overlooked as a potential contributor to variations in the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), i.e. the total solar flux received at Earth. Here, we report on the detection of the flare signal in the TSI even for moderate flares. We find that the total energy radiated by flares exceeds the soft X-ray emission by two orders of magnitude, with an important contribution in the visible domain. These results have implications for the physics of flares and the variability of our star.Comment: accepted in Nature Physic

The effect of the systemic inflammatory response on plasma vitamin 25 (OH) D concentrations adjusted for albumin

<b>Aim</b><p></p> To examine the relationship between plasma 25(OH)D, CRP and albumin concentrations in two patient cohorts.<p></p> <b>Methods</b><p></p> 5327 patients referred for nutritional assessment and 117 patients with critical illness were examined. Plasma 25 (OH) D concentrations were measured using standard methods. Intra and between assay imprecision was <10%.<p></p> <b>Result</b><p></p> In the large cohort, plasma 25 (OH) D was significantly associated with CRP (rs = −0.113, p<0.001) and albumin (rs = 0.192, p<0.001). 3711 patients had CRP concentrations ≤10 mg/L; with decreasing albumin concentrations ≥35, 25–34 and <25 g/l, median concentrations of 25 (OH) D were significantly lower from 35 to 28 to 14 nmol/l (p<0.001). This decrease was significant when albumin concentrations were reduced between 25–34 g/L (p<0.001) and when albumin <25 g/L (p<0.001). 1271 patients had CRP concentrations between 11–80 mg/L; with decreasing albumin concentrations ≥35, 25–34 and <25 g/l, median concentrations of 25 (OH) D were significantly lower from 31 to 24 to 19 nmol/l (p<0.001). This decrease was significant when albumin concentration were 25–34 g/L (p<0.001) and when albumin <25 g/L (p<0.001). 345 patients had CRP concentrations >80 mg/L; with decreasing albumin concentrations ≥35, 25–34 and <25 g/l, median concentrations of 25 (OH) D were not significantly altered varying from 19 to 23 to 23 nmol/l. Similar relationships were also obtained in the cohort of patients with critical illness.<p></p> <b>Conclusion</b><p></p> Plasma concentrations of 25(OH) D were independently associated with both CRP and albumin and consistent with the systemic inflammatory response as a major confounding factor in determining vitamin D status.<p></p&gt

Recombination rate and selection strength in HIV intra-patient evolution

The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the parameters governing genetic diversification and the strength of selection need to be known. While mutation rates can be measured in single replication cycles, the relevant effective recombination rate depends on the probability of coinfection of a cell with more than one virus and can only be inferred from population data. However, most population genetic estimators for recombination rates assume absence of selection and are hence of limited applicability to HIV, since positive and purifying selection are important in HIV evolution. Here, we estimate the rate of recombination and the distribution of selection coefficients from time-resolved sequence data tracking the evolution of HIV within single patients. By examining temporal changes in the genetic composition of the population, we estimate the effective recombination to be r=1.4e-5 recombinations per site and generation. Furthermore, we provide evidence that selection coefficients of at least 15% of the observed non-synonymous polymorphisms exceed 0.8% per generation. These results provide a basis for a more detailed understanding of the evolution of HIV. A particularly interesting case is evolution in response to drug treatment, where recombination can facilitate the rapid acquisition of multiple resistance mutations. With the methods developed here, more precise and more detailed studies will be possible, as soon as data with higher time resolution and greater sample sizes is available.Comment: to appear in PLoS Computational Biolog

Use of stochastic simulation to evaluate the reduction in methane emissions and improvement in reproductive efficiency from routine hormonal interventions in dairy herds

This study predicts the magnitude and between herd variation in changes of methane emissions and production efficiency associated with interventions to improve reproductive efficiency in dairy cows. Data for 10,000 herds of 200 cows were simulated. Probability of conception was predicted daily from the start of the study (parturition) for each cow up to day 300 of lactation. Four scenarios of differing first insemination management were simulated for each herd using the same theoretical cows: A baseline scenario based on breeding from observed oestrus only, synchronisation of oestrus for pre-set first insemination using 2 methods, and a regime using prostaglandin treatments followed by first insemination to observed oestrus. Cows that did not conceive to first insemination were re-inseminated following detection of oestrus. For cows that conceived, gestation length was 280 days with cessation of milking 60 days before calving. Those cows not pregnant after 300 days of lactation were culled and replaced by a heifer. Daily milk yield was calculated for 730 days from the start of the study for each cow. Change in mean reproductive and economic outputs were summarised for each herd following the 3 interventions. For each scenario, methane emissions were determined by daily forage dry matter intake, forage quality, and cow replacement risk. Linear regression was used to summarise relationships. In some circumstances improvement in reproductive efficiency using the programmes investigated was associated with reduced cost and methane emissions compared to reliance on detection of oestrus. Efficiency of oestrus detection and the time to commencement of breeding after calving influenced variability in changes in cost and methane emissions. For an average UK herd this was a saving of at least £50 per cow and a 3.6% reduction in methane emissions per L of milk when timing of first insemination was pre-set

Using simulation to interpret a discrete time survival model in a complex biological system: fertility and lameness in dairy cows

The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds) were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd’s incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance) using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period), PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd’s lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd) rather than individual level

The effect of intervertebral cartilage on neutral posture and range of motion in the necks of sauropod dinosaurs

The necks of sauropod dinosaurs were a key factor in their evolution. The habitual posture and range of motion of these necks has been controversial, and computer-aided studies have argued for an obligatory sub-horizontal pose. However, such studies are compromised by their failure to take into account the important role of intervertebral cartilage. This cartilage takes very different forms in different animals. Mammals and crocodilians have intervertebral discs, while birds have synovial joints in their necks. The form and thickness of cartilage varies significantly even among closely related taxa. We cannot yet tell whether the neck joints of sauropods more closely resembled those of birds or mammals. Inspection of CT scans showed cartilage:bone ratios of 4.5% for Sauroposeidon and about 20% and 15% for two juvenile Apatosaurus individuals. In extant animals, this ratio varied from 2.59% for the rhea to 24% for a juvenile giraffe. It is not yet possible to disentangle ontogenetic and taxonomic signals, but mammal cartilage is generally three times as thick as that of birds. Our most detailed work, on a turkey, yielded a cartilage:bone ratio of 4.56%. Articular cartilage also added 11% to the length of the turkey's zygapophyseal facets. Simple image manipulation suggests that incorporating 4.56% of neck cartilage into an intervertebral joint of a turkey raises neutral posture by 15°. If this were also true of sauropods, the true neutral pose of the neck would be much higher than has been depicted. An additional 11% of zygapophyseal facet length translates to 11% more range of motion at each joint. More precise quantitative results must await detailed modelling. In summary, including cartilage in our models of sauropod necks shows that they were longer, more elevated and more flexible than previously recognised

IRIS study: a phase II study of the steroid sulfatase inhibitor Irosustat when added to an aromatase inhibitor in ER-positive breast cancer patients

Purpose: Irosustat is a first-generation, orally active, irreversible steroid sulfatase inhibitor. We performed a multicentre, open label phase II trial of the addition of Irosustat to a first-line aromatase inhibitor (AI) in patients with advanced BC to evaluate the safety of the combination and to test the hypothesis that the addition of Irosustat to AI may further suppress estradiol levels and result in clinical benefit. Experimental design: Postmenopausal women with ER-positive locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer who had derived clinical benefit from a first-line AI and who subsequently progressed were enrolled. The first-line AI was continued and Irosustat (40 mg orally daily) added. The primary endpoint was clinical benefit rate (CBR). Secondary endpoints included safety, tolerability, and pharmacodynamic end points. Results: Twenty-seven women were recruited, four discontinued treatment without response assessment. Based on local reporting, the CBR was 18.5% (95% CI 6.3–38.1%) on an intent to treat basis, increasing to 21.7% (95% CI 7.4–43.7%) by per-protocol analysis. In those patients that achieved clinical benefit (n = 5), the median (interquartile range) duration was 9.4 months (8.1–11.3) months. The median progression-free survival time was 2.7 months (95% CI 2.5–4.6) in both the ITT and per-protocol analyses. The most frequently reported grade 3/4 toxicities were dry skin (28%), nausea (13%), fatigue (13%), diarrhoea (8%), headache (7%), anorexia (7%) and lethargy (7%). Conclusions: The addition of Irosustat to aromatase inhibitor therapy resulted in clinical benefit with an acceptable safety profile. The study met its pre-defined success criterion by both local and central radiological assessments

Boundaries of Semantic Distraction: Dominance and Lexicality Act at Retrieval

Three experiments investigated memory for semantic information with the goal of determining boundary conditions for the manifestation of semantic auditory distraction. Irrelevant speech disrupted the free recall of semantic category-exemplars to an equal degree regardless of whether the speech coincided with presentation or test phases of the task (Experiment 1) and occurred regardless of whether it comprised random words or coherent sentences (Experiment 2). The effects of background speech were greater when the irrelevant speech was semantically related to the to-be-remembered material, but only when the irrelevant words were high in output dominance (Experiment 3). The implications of these findings in relation to the processing of task material and the processing of background speech is discussed

Collaboration and knowledge exchange between scholars in Britain and the empire, 1830–1914

In recent years there has been a growing interest among historians in the British Empire as a space of knowledge production and circulation. Much of this work assumes that scholarly cooperation and collaboration between individuals and institutions within the Empire had the effect (and often also the aim) of strengthening both imperial ties and the idea of empire. This chapter argues, however, that many examples of scholarly travel, exchange, and collaboration were undertaken with very different goals in mind. In particular, it highlights the continuing importance of an ideal of scientific internationalism, which stressed the benefits of scholarship for the whole of humanity and prioritized the needs and goals of individual academic and scientific disciplines. As the chapter shows, some scholars even went on to develop nuanced critiques of the imperial project while using the very structures of empire to further their own individual, disciplinary and institutional goals

Population genomics of sub-Saharan Drosophila melanogaster: African diversity and non-African admixture

(ABRIDGED) We report the genome sequencing of 139 wild-derived strains of D. melanogaster, representing 22 population samples from the sub-Saharan ancestral range of this species, along with one European population. Most genomes were sequenced above 25X depth from haploid embryos. Results indicated a pervasive influence of non-African admixture in many African populations, motivating the development and application of a novel admixture detection method. Admixture proportions varied among populations, with greater admixture in urban locations. Admixture levels also varied across the genome, with localized peaks and valleys suggestive of a non-neutral introgression process. Genomes from the same location differed starkly in ancestry, suggesting that isolation mechanisms may exist within African populations. After removing putatively admixed genomic segments, the greatest genetic diversity was observed in southern Africa (e.g. Zambia), while diversity in other populations was largely consistent with a geographic expansion from this potentially ancestral region. The European population showed different levels of diversity reduction on each chromosome arm, and some African populations displayed chromosome arm-specific diversity reductions. Inversions in the European sample were associated with strong elevations in diversity across chromosome arms. Genomic scans were conducted to identify loci that may represent targets of positive selection. A disproportionate number of candidate selective sweep regions were located near genes with varied roles in gene regulation. Outliers for Europe-Africa FST were found to be enriched in genomic regions of locally elevated cosmopolitan admixture, possibly reflecting a role for some of these loci in driving the introgression of non-African alleles into African populations