Regional Air Pollution Impact: A Dispersion Methodology Developed and Applied to Energy Systems

A methodology is presented to account for the dispersion of air pollution emissions at a regional level to arrive at ambient ground-level concentrations. Air pollution due to energy is a major concern. This methodology has particular relevance to studies of alternative futures and to long-range environmental policy analysis. The methodology is developed using detailed dispersion model results and a Smeared Concentration Approximation (SCA) Dispersion Model is derived for Wisconsin using the methodology. A preliminary validation for sulfur dioxide and particulate matter pollution indicates that the methodology provides a reasonable picture of the urban air pollution concentrations. Results are presented to demonstrate that dispersion is important and relative impact is not at all proportional to a sector's percentage of total emissions. The results of the use of the SCA method in specific case studies indicates the value the method has for addressing air pollution impacts

Polarization singularities in the clear sky

Ideas from singularity theory provide a simple account of the pattern of polarization directions in daylight. The singularities (two near the Sun and two near the anti-Sun) are points in the sky where the polarization line pattern has index +1/2 and the intensity of polarization is zero. The singularities are caused by multiple scattering that splits into two each of the unstable index +1 singularities at the Sun and anti-Sun, which occur in the single-dipole scattering (Rayleigh) theory. The polarization lines are contours of an elliptic integral. For the intensity of polarization (unnormalized degree), it is necessary to incorporate the strong depolarizing effect of multiple scattering near the horizon. Singularity theory is compared with new digital images of sky polarization, and gives an excellent description of the pattern of polarization directions. For the intensity of polarization, the theory can reproduce not only the zeros but also subtle variations in the polarization maxima

Data Needs of the Environmental Model for the Integrated Energy System Research Program

This paper has the purpose of putting together under one cover a short diagrammatic description and the data needs of the environmental submodels that will be used in the IIASA Integrated Energy System Research Program. The environmental impact model interacts with the energy conversion and supply sectors and the end-use demand sectors. The specific objective of the model is to simulate the year-to-year quantified environmental impacts resulting from direct energy use in the region of study

A Methodology to Assess the Human Health Impact of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions from a Fossil Fuel Power Plant

This paper presents a methodology we have developed for assessing human health effects due to the emission of sulfur dioxide from a single fossil fuel power plant. This has been a difficult task to attempt in the past, containing great uncertainty; however, a new EPA model of health effects has recently been published and is, in our opinion, the best and most careful model of health impact of air pollution to date. The EPA model has current best judgements of impacts; it does not include all health effects thought to be related to air pollution. Our methodology was developed around this model using detailed air pollution data from Wisconsin. The EPA model is based on two main points. The first is that acid sulfates, not SO2, are the root cause of the health effects, and that the important averaging time is one day (24 hours). The second is the well established observation that the frequency of occurrence of different levels of pollution in the course of a year is distributed log-normally. The output of the model is the excess mortality in the population and the excess morbidity in the population for certain ailments and population subgroups due to the exposure to acid sulfates

An Initial Framework for Description of Regional Pollution Emissions in the IIASA Integrated Energy System Research Program

A brief overview of the environmental impact analysis for the Integrated Energy System Research Program is given in Foell (1). Three major pathways of environmental impact were identified and are shown in Figure 1. These are: (1) the impacts due to the emission of pollutants from the direct combustion of energy in the region, (2) the impacts due to the physical presence and use of the combustion machinery, e.g. cars and power plants, and (3) the impacts along the fuel chain (from extraction of raw material to the point of end use of the fuel). The content of this paper is concerned with the first pathway -- the impact of emissions within the region. Three levels of within-the-region impact analysis break out naturally, where each increasing level represents an increase in the complexity of the analysis of about an order of magnitude: (1) First Level: calculation of emissions; (2) Second Level: emissions with simple dispersion to obtain a dosage; (3) Third Level: dosage and health effects (dose-response) to obtain health impacts. This paper describes two models both at the First Level, for calculating emissions of pollutants due to the use of energy, on an annual basis, over a given study period. Both models assume some measure of energy use is available as input. The first model, the Regional Emissions Model, is a universal approach, using the Japanese experience, for calculating the total emissions of pollutants for a given region. The second model, the Subregional Emissions Model, is the Wisconsin model for calculating air pollution emissions at the subregional level (Wisconsin is composed of 72 subregions: counties). Finally, a simple method is presented for displaying relative emission impact comparisons between different subregions. The main emphasis in this paper is on air pollution emissions, however the first model also includes water and solid waste emission pathways to give a broader overall sense to the system of impacts

A Cross-National Comparison of Air Pollution Management: France, G.D.R., and the U.S

The close ties of the IIASA Ecology Project with research institutions in France, the GDR, and Wisconsin permitted the collection of parallel legal documents dealing with environmental protection in the three regions. The IIASA team also obtained empirical values of pollution concentrations in the cities of each study area. This material provided a basis for a cross-national comparison of such factors as government roles in supervising industry, the chain of authority in the implementation of pollution legislation, pollution standards, and sanctions against polluters. Also, a preliminary attempt was made to assess each country's progress in executing its legislation, through examination of current concentrations of pollutants in the ambient air

Evaluation of Health Effects from Sulfur Dioxide Emissions for A Reference Coal-Fired Power Plant

Health effects from coal-fired power plants are causing growing concern. Interest is stimulated by delays in the use of nuclear power and the possibility of greater use of coal. A model to evaluate health effects has been developed, based on the concept of a reference 1,000 MW plant. This model has particular relevance to studies of alternative futures and analysis for long range planning. The model consists of two parts, dealing with health impact and dispersion to dosage. The health submodel is based on a study by Finklea et al. at the USEPA, and the dispersion submodel is based on results of detailed dispersion modeling and monitoring for a typical power plant. The human health impacts are parameterized in terms of SO2 emissions, population and site characteristics, and background SO2 concentration. Although these quantified impacts are only a partial indicator of the total air pollution impact, the results show that these impacts may be significant and that they should be considered in the analysis of power plant impacts

The Smeared Concentration Approximation Method: A Simplified Air Pollution Dispersion Methodology for Regional Analysis

This paper describes a simplified method, the smeared concentration approximation (SCA) method, developed to characterize air pollution dispersion on the local scale. The SCA method is intended for use in models and analysis concerned with long term policy analysis at the regional level. The methodology centers around the development of SCA dispersion parameters for short-range transport (urban scale) for each of three emission classes: low-level area sources, medium-level point sources, and high-level point sources. Development of the SCA dispersion parameters, using detailed air pollution dispersion models, is described. An SCA dispersion kit for each of the three emission classes is given. Validation of the SCA method and examples of its use are discussed. Some typical questions concerning the use of the SCA method are also discussed. In an Appendix, an example is worked through to show how the SCA dispersion kits are used to develop each SCA dispersion parameter

Assessment of Alternative Energy/Environment Futures for Austria, 1977-2015: An Executive Summary

This report was prepared to complement a presentation made October 25, 1977 at IIASA. The presentation, titled "An Executive Briefing Session", was designed to present the final results of a thirteen-month study of the Austrian Energy/Environment System to leaders in Austrian government, industry, and science. This written documentation of the results (of which a German translation is also available) presents in a brief form the final conclusions of this study. The study results provide a comprehensive spatial and sectoral description of Austrian energy consumption, and examine alternative energy and environmental policy strategies. This report, however, is only a summary and a more complete description will appear in Research Report form in 1978

Assessment of Alternative Energy/Environment Futures for Austria: 1977-2015

The Austrian Regional Energy/Environment Study is the fourth in a series of IIASA studies on regional energy and environmental systems. The regions studied previously were the German Democratic Republic, the Rhone-Alpes Region in France and the state of Wisconsin in the U.S.A. The Austrian case study, regional in scope, complements the work of the IIASA Energy Systems Program which focuses primarily on global aspects of energy. This report presents the major results of the l5-month, Austrian case study, which examines alternative energy futures and strategies for Austria and some of their environmental implications. A secondary objective is the development of appropriate concepts and methods for energy/environment management and policy design in Austria