Flexible insurance for long-term care: A study of stated preferences

Aging societies need efficient and flexible systems to finance care for the frail elderly. We study pre-retirees' demand for flexible insurance that can finance informal long-term care by paying income in poor health states instead of reimbursing formal care costs. We collect and analyze stated preferences for this long-term care income product, and preferences for informal care. When asked to allocate wealth to a life annuity, a liquid investment and flexible long-term care insurance, around 75% of our sample of 1008 pre-retirees choose some long-term care cover. Study participants treat long-term care income insurance as a complement to informal care from their families. Females who expect to rely exclusively on extensive care from family members prefer more cover than similar males. We also find that if long-term care income insurance were available, some healthier seniors would purchase additional longevity insurance, using liquid funds otherwise set aside to self-insure long-term care risk

Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures

Uplands around the world are facing significant social, economic and environmental changes, and decision-makers need to better understand what the future may hold if they are to adapt and maintain upland goods and services. This paper draws together all major research comprising eight studies that have used scenarios to describe possible futures for UK uplands. The paper evaluates which scenarios are perceived by stakeholders to be most likely and desirable, and assesses the benefits and drawbacks of the scenario methods used in UK uplands to date. Stakeholders agreed that the most desirable and likely scenario would be a continuation of hill farming (albeit at reduced levels) based on cross-compliance with environmental measures. The least desirable scenario is a withdrawal of government financial support for hill farming. Although this was deemed by stakeholders to be the least likely scenario, the loss of government support warrants close attention due to its potential implications for the local economy. Stakeholders noted that the environmental implications of this scenario are much less clear-cut. As such, there is an urgent need to understand the full implications of this scenario, so that upland stakeholders can adequately prepare, and policy-makers can better evaluate the likely implications of different policy options. The paper concludes that in future, upland scenario research needs to: (1) better integrate in-depth and representative participation from stakeholders during both scenario development and evaluation; and (2) make more effective use of visualisation techniques and simulation models

Are galactic star formation and quenching governed by local, global, or environmental phenomena?

We present an analysis of star formation and quenching in the SDSS-IV MaNGA-DR15, utilising over 5 million spaxels from $\sim$3500 local galaxies. We estimate star formation rate surface densities ($\Sigma_{\rm SFR}$) via dust corrected $H\alpha$ flux where possible, and via an empirical relationship between specific star formation rate (sSFR) and the strength of the 4000 Angstrom break (D4000) in all other cases. We train a multi-layered artificial neural network (ANN) and a random forest (RF) to classify spaxels into `star forming' and `quenched' categories given various individual (and groups of) parameters. We find that global parameters (pertaining to the galaxy as a whole) perform collectively the best at predicting when spaxels will be quenched, and are substantially superior to local/ spatially resolved and environmental parameters. Central velocity dispersion is the best single parameter for predicting quenching in central galaxies. We interpret this observational fact as a probable consequence of the total integrated energy from AGN feedback being traced by the mass of the black hole, which is well known to correlate strongly with central velocity dispersion. Additionally, we train both an ANN and RF to estimate $\Sigma_{\rm SFR}$ values directly via regression in star forming regions. Local/ spatially resolved parameters are collectively the most predictive at estimating $\Sigma_{\rm SFR}$ in these analyses, with stellar mass surface density at the spaxel location ($\Sigma_*$) being by far the best single parameter. Thus, quenching is fundamentally a global process but star formation is governed locally by processes within each spaxel.ERC Advanced Grant: 695671 "Quench

National Geodetic Satellite Program, Part II: Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory

A sequence of advances in the determination of geodetic parameters presented by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory are described. A Baker-Nunn photographic system was used in addition to a ruby-laser ranging system to obtain data for refinement of geodetic parameters. A summary of the data employed to: (1) derive coordinates for the locations of various tracking stations; and (2) determine the gravitational potential of the earth, is presented

How do central and satellite galaxies quench? - Insights from spatially resolved spectroscopy in the MaNGA survey

We investigate how star formation quenching proceeds within central and satellite galaxies using spatially resolved spectroscopy from the SDSS-IV MaNGA DR15. We adopt a complete sample of star formation rate surface densities ($\Sigma_{\rm SFR}$), derived in Bluck et al. (2020), to compute the distance at which each spaxel resides from the resolved star forming main sequence ($\Sigma_{\rm SFR} - \Sigma_*$ relation): $\Delta \Sigma_{\rm SFR}$. We study galaxy radial profiles in $\Delta \Sigma_{\rm SFR}$, and luminosity weighted stellar age (${\rm Age_L}$), split by a variety of intrinsic and environmental parameters. Via several statistical analyses, we establish that the quenching of central galaxies is governed by intrinsic parameters, with central velocity dispersion ($\sigma_c$) being the most important single parameter. High mass satellites quench in a very similar manner to centrals. Conversely, low mass satellite quenching is governed primarily by environmental parameters, with local galaxy over-density ($\delta_5$) being the most important single parameter. Utilising the empirical $M_{BH}$ - $\sigma_c$ relation, we estimate that quenching via AGN feedback must occur at $M_{BH} \geq 10^{6.5-7.5} M_{\odot}$, and is marked by steeply rising $\Delta \Sigma_{\rm SFR}$ radial profiles in the green valley, indicating `inside-out' quenching. On the other hand, environmental quenching occurs at over-densities of 10 - 30 times the average galaxy density at z$\sim$0.1, and is marked by steeply declining $\Delta \Sigma_{\rm SFR}$ profiles, indicating `outside-in' quenching. Finally, through an analysis of stellar metallicities, we conclude that both intrinsic and environmental quenching must incorporate significant starvation of gas supply.ERC STF

Assimilating Remote Sensing Observations of Leaf Area Index and Soil Moisture for Wheat Yield Estimates: An Observing System Simulation Experiment

Observing system simulation experiments were used to investigate ensemble Bayesian state updating data assimilation of observations of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture (theta) for the purpose of improving single-season wheat yield estimates with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CropSim-Ceres model. Assimilation was conducted in an energy-limited environment and a water-limited environment. Modeling uncertainty was prescribed to weather inputs, soil parameters and initial conditions, and cultivar parameters and through perturbations to model state transition equations. The ensemble Kalman filter and the sequential importance resampling filter were tested for the ability to attenuate effects of these types of uncertainty on yield estimates. LAI and theta observations were synthesized according to characteristics of existing remote sensing data, and effects of observation error were tested. Results indicate that the potential for assimilation to improve end-of-season yield estimates is low. Limitations are due to a lack of root zone soil moisture information, error in LAI observations, and a lack of correlation between leaf and grain growth

Riverine macrosystems ecology: sensitivity, resistance, and resilience of whole river basins with human alterations

Riverine macrosystems are described here as watershed-scale networks of connected and interacting riverine and upland habitat patches. Such systems are driven by variable responses of nutrients and organisms to a suite of global and regional factors (eg climate, human social systems) interacting with finer-scale variations in geology, topography, and human modifications. We hypothesize that spatial heterogeneity, connectivity, and asynchrony among these patches regulate ecological dynamics of whole networks, altering system sensitivity, resistance, and resilience. Long-distance connections between patches may be particularly important in riverine macrosystems, shaping fundamental system properties. Furthermore, the type, extent, intensity, and spatial configuration of human activities (eg land-use change, dam construction) influence watershed-wide ecological properties through effects on habitat heterogeneity and connectivity at multiple scales. Thus, riverine macrosystems are coupled social–ecological systems with feedbacks that influence system responses to environmental change and the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services

Nature of Guanine Oxidation in RNA via the Flash-Quench Technique versus Direct Oxidation by a Metal Oxo Complex

Oxidation of RNA can be effected by two different techniques: a photochemical, electron-transfer method termed “flash-quench” and direct oxidation by metal oxo complexes. The flash-quench method produces selective oxidation using a metal photosensitizer, tris(bipyridyl)ruthenium(III) trichloride (Ru(bpy)33+), and quencher, pentaamminechlorocobalt(III) chloride (Co(NH3)5Cl2+). We have optimized the flash-quench technique for the following RNAs: tRNAPhe, human ferritin iron-responsive element (IRE), and a mutated human ferritin IRE. We have also employed a chemical footprinting technique involving the oxoruthenium(IV) complex (Ru(tpy)(bpy)O2+ (tpy = 2,2′,2″-terpyridine; bpy = 2,2′-bipyridine)) to oxidize guanine. Comparison of the two methods shows that the flash-quench technique provides a visualization of nucleotide accessibility for a static conformation of RNA while the Ru(tpy)(bpy)O2+ complex selectively oxidizes labile guanines and gives a visualization of a composite of multiple conformations of the RNA structure

Geomorphology variables predict fish assemblages for forested and endorheic rivers of two continents

Stream fishes are restricted to specific environments with appropriate habitats for feeding and reproduction. Interactions between streams and surrounding landscapes influence the availability and type of fish habitat, nutrient concentrations, suspended solids, and substrate composition. Valley width and gradient are geomorphological variables that influence the frequency and intensity that a stream interacts with the surrounding landscape. For example, in constrained valleys, canyon walls are steeply sloped and valleys are narrow, limiting the movement of water into riparian zones. Wide valleys have long, flat floodplains that are inundated with high discharge. We tested for differences in fish assemblages with geomorphology variation among stream sites. We selected rivers in similar forested and endorheic ecoregion types of the United States and Mongolia. Sites where we collected were defined as geomorphologically unique river segments (i.e., functional process zones; FPZs) using an automated ArcGIS-based tool. This tool extracts geomorphic variables at the valley and catchment scales and uses them to cluster stream segments based on their similarity. We collected a representative fish sample from replicates of FPZs. Then, we used constrained ordinations to determine whether river geomorphology could predict fish assemblage variation. Our constrained ordination approach using geomorphology to predict fish assemblages resulted in significance using fish taxonomy and traits in several watersheds. The watersheds where constrained ordinations were not successful were next analyzed with unconstrained ordinations to examine patterns among fish taxonomy and traits with geomorphology variables. Common geomorphology variables as predictors for taxonomic fish assemblages were river gradient, valley width, and valley slope. Significant geomorphology predictors of functional traits were valley width-to-floor width ratio, elevation, gradient, and channel sinuosity. These results provide evidence that fish assemblages respond similarly and strongly to geomorphic variables on two continents

The challenge of enterprise/innovation: a case study of a modern university

In the prevailing economic and political climate for Higher Education a greater emphasis has been placed on diversifying the funding base. The present study was undertaken between 2012 and 2014 and addressed the implementation of an approach to the transformation of one academic school in a medium-sized modern university in Wales to a more engaged enterprise culture. A multimethod investigation included a bi-lingual (English and Welsh) online survey of academic staff and yielded a 71% response rate (n = 45). The findings informed a series of in-depth interviews (n = 24) with a representative sample of those involved in enterprise work (support staff, managers, senior managers), and those who were not. The results provided the platform for the ‘S4E model’ for effective engagement with enterprise: (1) Strategic significance for Enterprise, (2) Support for Enterprise, (3) Synergy for Enterprise, and (4) Success for Enterprise. The outcomes of the research and the recommendations from it have potential to inform practice in other academic schools within the university and, in a wider context, within other Schools of Education regionally, nationally and internationally. Its original empirical exploration of enterprise within education studies is a significant contribution to that body of knowledge