Modelling the economic efficiency of using different strategies to control Porcine Reproductive & Respiratory Syndrome at herd level

PRRS is among the diseases with the highest economic impact in pig production worldwide. Different strategies have been developed and applied to combat PRRS at farm level. The broad variety of available intervention strategies makes it difficult to decide on the most cost-efficient strategy for a given farm situation, as it depends on many farm-individual factors like disease severity, prices or farm structure. Aim of this study was to create a simulation tool to estimate the cost-efficiency of different control strategies at individual farm level. Baseline is a model that estimates the costs of PRRS, based on changes in health and productivity, in a specific farm setting (e.g. farm type, herd size, type of batch farrowing). The model evaluates different intervention scenarios: depopulation/repopulation (D/R), close & roll-over (C&R), mass vaccination of sows (MS), mass vaccination of sows and vaccination of piglets (MS + piglets), improvements in internal biosecurity (BSM), and combinations of vaccinations with BSM. Data on improvement in health and productivity parameters for each intervention were obtained through literature review and from expert opinions. The economic efficiency of the different strategies was assessed over 5 years through investment appraisals: the resulting expected value (EV) indicated the most cost-effective strategy. Calculations were performed for 5 example scenarios with varying farm type (farrow-to-finish – breeding herd), disease severity (slightly – moderately – severely affected) and PRRSV detection (yes – no). The assumed herd size was 1000 sows with farm and price structure as commonly found in Germany. In a moderately affected (moderate deviations in health and productivity parameters from what could be expected in an average negative herd), unstable farrow-to-finish herd, the most cost-efficient strategies according to their median EV were C&R (€1′126′807) and MS + piglets (€ 1′114′649). In a slightly affected farrow-to-finish herd, no virus detected, the highest median EV was for MS + piglets (€ 721′745) and MS (€ 664′111). Results indicate that the expected benefits of interventions and the most efficient strategy depend on the individual farm situation, e.g. disease severity. The model provides new insights regarding the cost-efficiency of various PRRSV intervention strategies at farm level. It is a valuable tool for farmers and veterinarians to estimate expected economic consequences of an intervention for a specific farm setting and thus enables a better informed decision

Farm-Level Evaluation of Agricultural and Environmental Policies with an Integrated Modeling System

Concern is growing throughout the United States about environmental and health risks associated with the use of agricultural chemicals. In response to these concerns, public policies designed to alter farming practices and the use of agricultural chemicals are being proposed and implemented. In addition, existing U.S. agricultural policies directed at price stabilization and income support are being reviewed for interdependencies with environmental measures. This paper provides a farm-level analysis of the interrelationships between the current U.S. commodity program for corn and selected environmentally motivated policies for controlling the use of corn rootworm insecticides. An integrated modeling system is employed that includes economic and biological components. The farm modeled is for opportunities for coordinating agricultural commodity and environmental policies. Policy adjustments are identified that can reduce corn rootworm insecticide use, improving the quality of the environment and limiting health risk, while only modestly affecting certainly equivalent farm income

Flexibility and the Integration of Commodity and Environmental Policies

Environmental and health risk concerns associated with the use of agricultural chemicals in the United States are increasing. In response, public policies designed to alter farming practices and the use of agricultural chemicals are being proposed and implemented. In addition, agricultural price stabilization and income support policies are being reviewed for environmental implications. This paper provides a farm-level analysis of the interrelationships between the current U.S. commodity program for corn and selected policies for controlling the use of corn rootworm insecticides. The farm modeled is for Chickasaw County, Iowa. Results show significant opportunities for coordinating agricultural commodity and environmental policies. Corn rootworm insecticide use can be reduced with only modest effects

Cost of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus at individual farm level – An economic disease model

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is reported to be among the diseases with the highest economic impact in modern pig production worldwide. Yet, the economic impact of the disease at farm level is not well understood as, especially in endemically infected pig herds, losses are often not obvious. It is therefore difficult for farmers and veterinarians to appraise whether control measures such as virus elimination or vaccination will be economically beneficial for their farm. Thus, aim of this study was to develop an epidemiological and economic model to determine the costs of PRRS for an individual pig farm. In a production model that simulates farm outputs, depending on farm type, farrowing rhythm or length of suckling period, an epidemiological model was integrated. In this, the impact of PRRS infection on health and productivity was estimated. Financial losses were calculated in a gross margin analysis and a partial budget analysis based on the changes in health and production parameters assumed for different PRRS disease severities. Data on the effects of endemic infection on reproductive performance, morbidity and mortality, daily weight gain, feed efficiency and treatment costs were obtained from literature and expert opinion. Nine different disease scenarios were calculated, in which a farrow-to-finish farm (1000 sows) was slightly, moderately or severely affected by PRRS, based on changes in health and production parameters, and either in breeding, in nursery and fattening or in all three stages together. Annual losses ranged from a median of € 75′724 (90% confidence interval (C.I.): € 78′885–€ 122′946), if the farm was slightly affected in nursery and fattening, to a median of € 650′090 (90% C.I. € 603′585–€ 698′379), if the farm was severely affected in all stages. Overall losses were slightly higher if breeding was affected than if nursery and fattening were affected. In a herd moderately affected in all stages, median losses in breeding were € 46′021 and € 422′387 in fattening, whereas costs were € 25′435 lower in nursery, compared with a PRRSV-negative farm. The model is a valuable decision-support tool for farmers and veterinarians if a farm is proven to be affected by PRRS (confirmed by laboratory diagnosis). The output can help to understand the need for interventions in case of significant impact on the profitability of their enterprise. The model can support veterinarians in their communication to farmers in cases where costly disease control measures are justified

Planar trees, free nonassociative algebras, invariants, and elliptic integrals

We consider absolutely free algebras with (maybe infinitely) many multilinear operations. Such multioperator algebras were introduced by Kurosh in 1960. Multioperator algebras satisfy the Nielsen-Schreier property and subalgebras of free algebras are also free. Free multioperator algebras are described in terms of labeled reduced planar rooted trees. This allows to apply combinatorial techniques to study their Hilbert series and the asymptotics of their coefficients. Then, over a field of characteristic 0, we investigate the subalgebras of invariants under the action of a linear group, their sets of free generators and their Hilbert series. It has turned out that, except in the trivial cases, the algebra of elliptic integrals. invariants is never finitely generated. In important partial cases the Hilbert series of the algebras of invariants and the generating functions of their sets of free generators are expressed in terms of elliptic integrals

Shock and Release Temperatures in Molybdenum

Shock and release temperatures in Mo were calculated, taking account of heating from plastic flow predicted using the Steinberg-Guinan model. Plastic flow was calculated self-consistently with the shock jump conditions: this is necessary for a rigorous estimate of the locus of shock states accessible. The temperatures obtained were significantly higher than predicted assuming ideal hydrodynamic loading. The temperatures were compared with surface emission spectrometry measurements for Mo shocked to around 60GPa and then released into vacuum or into a LiF window. Shock loading was induced by the impact of a planar projectile, accelerated by high explosive or in a gas gun. Surface velocimetry showed an elastic wave at the start of release from the shocked state; the amplitude of the elastic wave matched the prediction to around 10%, indicating that the predicted flow stress in the shocked state was reasonable. The measured temperatures were consistent with the simulations, indicating that the fraction of plastic work converted to heat was in the range 70-100% for these loading conditions

Explanation for Anomalous Shock Temperatures Measured by Neutron Resonance Spectroscopy

Neutron resonance spectrometry (NRS) has been used to measure the temperature inside Mo samples during shock loading. The temperatures obtained were significantly higher than predicted assuming ideal hydrodynamic loading. The effect of plastic flow and non-ideal projectile behavior were assessed. Plastic flow was calculated self-consistently with the shock jump conditions: this is necessary for a rigorous estimate of the locus of shock states accessible. Plastic flow was estimated to contribute a temperature rise of 53K compared with hydrodynamic flow. Simulations were performed of the operation of the explosively-driven projectile system used to induce the shock in the Mo sample. The simulations predicted that the projectile was significantly curved on impact, and still accelerating. The resulting spatial variations in load, including radial components of velocity, were predicted to increase the apparent temperature that would be deduced from the width of the neutron resonance by 160K. These corrections are sufficient to reconcile the apparent temperatures deduced using NRS with the accepted properties of Mo, in particular its equation of state.Comment: near-final version, waiting for final consent from an autho