An improved method for mobility prediction using a Markov model and density estimation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via the DOI in this recordThe prediction of an individual's future locations is a significant part of scientific researches. While a variety of solutions have been investigated for the prediction of future locations, predicting departure and arrival times at predicted locations is a task with higher complexity and less attention. While the challenges of combining spatial and temporal information have been stated in various works, the proposed solutions lack accuracy and robustness. This paper proposes a simple yet effective way to predict not only an individual's future location, but also most probable departure and arrival times as well as the most probable route from origin to destination

Identifying atypical travel patterns for improved medium-term mobility prediction

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via the DOI in this recordDuring the last decades, concepts of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) were continuously adapted and improved based on new insights into human travel behavior. Drivers for improvements are the quantity and quality of available mobility data, which increased significantly in recent years. Based on travel behavior, literature proposes a large number of different solutions for next step or future location prediction. However a holistic spatio-temporal prediction, which could further improve the quality of ITS, creates a more complex task. The prediction of medium-term mobility for one to seven days is challenging in particular for atypical travel behavior, since the weekdays’ order delivers no reliable indication for the next day’s travel behavior. With our contribution, we explore the benefits of various prediction approaches for medium-term mobility prediction and combine them dynamically to predict individual mobility behavior for a period of one week. The derived framework utilizes an exhaustive search approach to benefit from a machine learning based clustering method on location data. In conjunction with an Artificial Neural Network, the prediction framework is robust against prediction errors created by atypical behavior. With two data sets consisting of smartphone and vehicle data, we demonstrate the framework’s real-world applicability. We show that clustering an individual’s historical movement data can improve the prediction accuracy of different prediction methods that will be explained in detail and illustrate the interrelation of entropy and prediction accuracy.University of Exete

Search for corannulene (C20H10) in the Red Rectangle

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are widely accepted as the carriers of the Aromatic Infrared Bands (AIBs), but an unambiguous identification of any specific interstellar PAH is still missing. For polar PAHs, pure rotational transitions can be used as spectral fingerprints for identification. Combining dedicated experiments, detailed simulations and observations, we explore d the mm wavelength domain to search for specific rotational transitions of corannulene (C20H10). We performed high-resolution spectroscopic measurements and a simulation of the emission spectrum of ultraviolet-excited C20H10 in the environment of the Red Rectangle (RR), calculating its synthetic rotational spectrum. Based on these results, we conducted a first observational campaign at the IRAM 30-m telescope towards this source to search for several high-J rotational transitions of C20H10. The laboratory detection of the J = 112 ← 111 transition of corannulene showed that no centrifugal splitting is present up to this line. Observations with the IRAM 30-m telescope towards the RR do not show any corannulene emission at any of the observed frequencies, down to a rms noise level of Tmb= 8 mK for the J =135 → 134 transition at 137.615 GHz. Comparing the noise level with the synthetic spectrum, we are able to estimate an upper limit to the fraction of carbon locked in corannulene of about 1.0 × 10−5 relative to the total abundance of carbon in PAHs. The sensitivity achieved in this work shows that radio spectroscopy can be a powerful tool to search for polar PAHs. We compare this upper limit with models for the PAH size distribution, emphasizing that small PAHs are much less abundant than predicted. We show that this cannot be explained by destruction but is more likely related to the chemistry of their formation in the environment of the R

Pro-inflammatory Diet Pictured in Children With Atopic Dermatitis or Food Allergy: Nutritional Data of the LiNA Cohort

Background: Lifestyle and environmental factors are known to contribute to allergic disease development, especially very early in life. However, the link between diet composition and allergic outcomes remains unclear. Methods: In the present population-based cohort study we evaluated the dietary intake of 10-year-old children and analyses were performed with particular focus on atopic dermatitis or food allergy, allergic diseases known to be affected by dietary allergens. Dietary intake was assessed via semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires. Based on these data, individual nutrient intake as well as children’s Dietary Inflammatory Index (C-DIITM) scores were calculated. Information about atopic manifestations during the first 10 years of life and confounding factors were obtained from standardized questionnaires during pregnancy and annually thereafter. Results: Analyses from confounder-adjusted logistic regression models (n = 211) revealed that having atopic outcomes was associated with having a pro-inflammatory pattern at the age of 10 years: OR = 2.22 (95% CI: 1.14–4.31) for children with atopic dermatitis and OR = 3.82 (95% CI: 1.47–9.93) for children with food allergy in the first 10 years of life Conclusion: A pro-inflammatory dietary pattern might worsen the atopic outcome and reduce the buffering capacity of the individual against harmful environmental exposures or triggers. For pediatricians it is recommended to test for the individual tolerance of allergenic foods and to increase the nutrient density of tolerable food items to avoid undesirable effects of eating a pro-inflammatory diet

Pro-inflammatory Diet Pictured in Children With Atopic Dermatitis or Food Allergy:Nutritional Data of the LiNA Cohort

Background: Lifestyle and environmental factors are known to contribute to allergic disease development, especially very early in life. However, the link between diet composition and allergic outcomes remains unclear. Methods: In the present population-based cohort study we evaluated the dietary intake of 10-year-old children and analyses were performed with particular focus on atopic dermatitis or food allergy, allergic diseases known to be affected by dietary allergens. Dietary intake was assessed via semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires. Based on these data, individual nutrient intake as well as children’s Dietary Inflammatory Index (C-DII™) scores were calculated. Information about atopic manifestations during the first 10 years of life and confounding factors were obtained from standardized questionnaires during pregnancy and annually thereafter. Results: Analyses from confounder-adjusted logistic regression models (n = 211) revealed that having atopic outcomes was associated with having a pro-inflammatory pattern at the age of 10 years: OR = 2.22 (95% CI: 1.14–4.31) for children with atopic dermatitis and OR = 3.82 (95% CI: 1.47–9.93) for children with food allergy in the first 10 years of life. Conclusion: A pro-inflammatory dietary pattern might worsen the atopic outcome and reduce the buffering capacity of the individual against harmful environmental exposures or triggers. For pediatricians it is recommended to test for the individual tolerance of allergenic foods and to increase the nutrient density of tolerable food items to avoid undesirable effects of eating a pro-inflammatory diet.</p

Maternal and child cytokine relationship in early life is not altered by cytokine gene polymorphisms

The development of immune responses is influenced by the interaction between environmental and genetic factors. Our previous study showed a close association between maternal and young infant’s cytokine responses. The question is how this association evolves over time and the contribution of genetic polymorphisms to this association. Five cytokines in mitogen-stimulated whole blood culture were measured from pregnant mothers and their children aged 2, 5, 12, 24 and 48 months. Cytokine gene polymorphisms were determined in both mothers and children. High production of maternal interleukin (IL)-10, tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and interferon-γ (IFN-γ) was significantly associated with higher levels of the corresponding cytokines in their children at 2 months (T2), but the association decreased over time. Maternal single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in IFN-γ gene, rs3181032, was found to be associated with child’s IFN-γ levels at T2 only, whereas maternal IL-10 rs4579758 and child’s TNF-α rs13215091 were associated with child’s corresponding cytokines at later ages but not at T2. In the final models including the gene polymorphisms, maternal cytokines were still the strongest determinant of child cytokines. Maternal cytokine during pregnancy, which could be a proxy for child’s environmental factors, showed its highest impact at early age, with no or little influence from genetic factors

Search for corannulene (C20H10) in the Red Rectangle

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are widely accepted as the carriers of the Aromatic Infrared Bands (AIBs), but an unambiguous identification of any specific interstellar PAH is still missing. For polar PAHs, pure rotational transitions can be used as fingerprints for identification. Combining dedicated experiments, detailed simulations and observations, we explored the mm domain to search for specific rotational transitions of corannulene (C20H10). We performed high-resolution spectroscopic measurements and a simulation of the emission spectrum of UV-excited C20H10 in the environment of the Red Rectangle, calculating its synthetic rotational spectrum. Based on these results, we conducted a first observational campaign at the IRAM 30m telescope towards this source to search for several high-J rotational transitions of (C20H10). The laboratory detection of the J = 112 <- 111 transition of corannulene showed that no centrifugal splitting is present up to this line. Observations with the IRAM 30m telescope towards the Red Rectangle do not show any corannulene emission at any of the observed frequencies, down to a rms noise level of Tmb = 8 mK for the J =135 -> 134 transition at 137.615 GHz. Comparing the noise level with the synthetic spectrum, we are able to estimate an upper limit to the fraction of carbon locked in corannulene of about 1.0x10(-5) relative to the total abundance of carbon in PAHs. The sensitivity achieved shows that radio spectroscopy can be a powerful tool to search for polar PAHs. We compare this upper limit with models for the PAH size distribution, emphasising that small PAHs are much less abundant than predicted. We show that this cannot be explained by destruction but is more likely related to the chemistry of their formation in the environment of the Red Rectangle.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

Exposure to Moderate Air Pollution during Late Pregnancy and Cord Blood Cytokine Secretion in Healthy Neonates

Ambient air pollution can alter cytokine concentrations as shown in vitro and following short-term exposure to high air pollution levels in vivo. Exposure to pollution during late pregnancy has been shown to affect fetal lymphocytic immunophenotypes. However, effects of prenatal exposure to moderate levels of air pollutants on cytokine regulation in cord blood of healthy infants are unknown. In a birth cohort of 265 healthy term-born neonates, we assessed maternal exposure to particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM₁₀), as well as to indoor air pollution during the last trimester, specifically the last 21, 14, 7, 3 and 1 days of pregnancy. As a proxy for traffic-related air pollution, we determined the distance of mothers' homes to major roads. We measured cytokine and chemokine levels (MCP-1, IL-6, IL-10, IL-1ß, TNF-α and GM-CSF) in cord blood serum using LUMINEX technology. Their association with pollution levels was assessed using regression analysis, adjusted for possible confounders. Mean (95%-CI) PM₁₀ exposure for the last 7 days of pregnancy was 18.3 (10.3-38.4 µg/m³). PM₁₀ exposure during the last 3 days of pregnancy was significantly associated with reduced IL-10 and during the last 3 months of pregnancy with increased IL-1ß levels in cord blood after adjustment for relevant confounders. Maternal smoking was associated with reduced IL-6 levels. For the other cytokines no association was found. Our results suggest that even naturally occurring prenatal exposure to moderate amounts of indoor and outdoor air pollution may lead to changes in cord blood cytokine levels in a population based cohort

Neonatal DNA methylation and childhood low prosocial behavior: an epigenome-wide association meta-analysis

Low prosocial behavior in childhood has been consistently linked to later psychopathology, with evidence supporting the influence of both genetic and environmental factors on its development. Although neonatal DNA methylation (DNAm) has been found to prospectively associate with a range of psychological traits in childhood, its potential role in prosocial development has yet to be investigated. This study investigated prospective associations between cord blood DNAm at birth and low prosocial behavior within and across four longitudinal birth cohorts from the Pregnancy And Childhood Epigenetics (PACE) Consortium. We examined (a) developmental trajectories of "chronic-low" versus "typical" prosocial behavior across childhood in a case-control design (N = 2,095), and (b) continuous "low prosocial" scores at comparable cross-cohort time-points (N = 2,121). Meta-analyses were performed to examine differentially methylated positions and regions. At the cohort-specific level, three CpGs were found to associate with chronic low prosocial behavior; however, none of these associations was replicated in another cohort. Meta-analysis revealed no epigenome-wide significant CpGs or regions. Overall, we found no evidence for associations between DNAm patterns at birth and low prosocial behavior across childhood. Findings highlight the importance of employing multi-cohort approaches to replicate epigenetic associations and reduce the risk of false positive discoveries