Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this record.Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (that is, >5 years) timescales and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate.This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and the EU FP7 SPECS project. The contribution of D.P.R. has received funding from the NERC/DFID Future Climate for Africa programme under the AMMA-2050 project, grant number NE/M019977/1

Applying a perceptions and practicalities approach to understanding nonadherence to antiepileptic drugs

Summary Objective Nonadherence to antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) is a common cause of poor seizure control. This study examines whether reported adherence to AEDs is related to variables identified in the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) Medicines Adherence Guidelines as being important to adherence: perceptual factors (AED necessity beliefs and concerns), practical factors (limitations in capability and resources), and perceptions of involvement in treatment decisions. Methods This was a cross-sectional study of people with epilepsy receiving AEDs. Participants completed an online survey hosted by the Epilepsy Society (n = 1,010), or as an audit during inpatient admission (n = 118). Validated questionnaires, adapted for epilepsy, assessed reported adherence to AEDs (Medication Adherence Report Scale [MARS]), perceptions of AEDs (Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire [BMQ]), and patient perceptions of involvement in treatment decisions (Treatment Empowerment Scale [TES]). Results Low adherence was related to AED beliefs (doubts about necessity: t(577) = 3.90, p < 0.001; and concerns: t(995) = 3.45, p = 0.001), reported limitations in capability and resources (t(589) = 7.78, p < 0.001), and to perceptions of a lack of involvement in treatment decisions (t(623) = 4.48, p < 0.001). In multiple logistic regression analyses, these factors significantly (p < 0.001) increased variance in reported adherence, above that which could be explained by age and clinical variables (seizure frequency, type, epilepsy duration, number of AEDs prescribed). Significance Variables identified in the NICE Medicines Adherence Guidelines as potentially important factors for adherence were found to be related to adherence to AEDs. These factors are potentially modifiable. Interventions to support optimal adherence to AEDs should be tailored to address doubts about AED necessity and concerns about harm, and to overcome practical difficulties, while engaging patients in treatment decisions

Global unions: chasing the dream or building the reality?

This article takes as its theme the global restructuring of capital and its impact on worker organization. It argues for a reassertion of class in any analysis of global solidarity, and assesses the opportunities and barriers to effective global unionization. Rooted in the UK experience, the article analyzes the impact of the European social dimension on trade unions, before taking the discussion into a global dimension. It concludes by suggesting that there are reasons for cautious optimism in terms of solidarity building, despite difficult historical legacies and the common replacement of action with rhetoric

Labour market experiences of young UK Bangladeshi men: Identity, inclusion and exclusion in inner-city London

Detailed qualitative data are used to explore the processes perpetuatinglabour market disadvantage among young UK-Bangladeshi men living in central London. Strong forces of inclusion within the Bangladeshi community are found to interact with forces of exclusion from ‘mainstream’ society to constrain aspirations and limit opportunities. Though diverse forms of young Bangladeshi masculinity are found, a common pattern is heavy dependency on intra-ethnic networks. Negative experiences of and isolation from ‘mainstream’ society further reinforce reliance on ‘our own people’. However, acute ambivalence towards belonging to a dense Bangladeshi community exists, exemplified in the widespread denigration of the restaurant trade. Many respondents express the desire to ‘break out’ and access new experiences. The findings support current policy emphasis on ‘connecting people to work’ but highlight the more fundamental need to connect people across ethnic boundaries. The paper urges researchers to ‘unpack’ ethnicity to consider carefully what ethnic identity implies in terms of access to resources and opportunities for different individuals in different contexts in order better to understand the diversity of labour market outcomes and the persistence of disadvantage

Stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy for the treatment of spinal oligometastases

Abstract not availableJ.H. Chang, S. Gandhidasan, R. Finnigan, D. Whalley, R. Nair, A. Herschtal, T. Eade, A. Kneebone, J. Ruben, M. Foote, S. Siv

Exploring attitudes to edgy urban destinations: the case of Deptford, London

The role of tourists and tourism in urban development is not fully understood. Research has focused on tourism districts within city centres, but less is known about tourism in peripheral, less affluent urban districts. These areas can appeal to visitors as edgy alternatives to mainstream destinations. This study establishes who is interested in visiting and why, and it explores the underlying rationale for negative attitudes. The aims are addressed by an in-depth analysis of Deptford in South East London. This area is a relatively deprived part of a world city, albeit one that has long been earmarked as London's next cool district. The study uses a mix of different sources to analyse the case. Responses to a New York Times article on Deptford are analysed and the attitudes of actual visitors and key stakeholders are explored. The discussion includes an examination of different interpretations and attitudes towards the notion of edginess. Edginess is deemed attractive by certain audiences; something linked to a reverence for working-class life in the arts. The study concludes that, whilst edginess is a noted characteristic, what people appreciate about Deptford is its ‘distinctive ordinariness’ – its contrast with more polished and contrived urban districts

Luminous infrared galaxies as possible sources of the UHE cosmic rays

Ultra High Energy (UHE) particles coming from discrete extragalactic sources are potential candidates for EAS events above a few tens of EeV. In particular, galaxies with huge infrared luminosity triggered by collision and merging processes are possible sites of UHECR acceleration. Using the PSCz catalogue of IR galaxies we calculate a large scale anisotropy of UHE protons originating in the population of the luminous infrared galaxies (LIRGs). Small angle particle scattering in weak irregular extragalactic magnetic fields as well as deflection by regular Galactic field are taken into account. We give analytical formulae for deflection angles with included energy losses on cosmic microwave background (CMB). The hypotheses of the anisotropic and isotropic distributions of the experimental data above 40 EeV from AGASA are checked, using various statistical tests. We show that on the basis of the small scale clustering analysis there is a much better correlation of the UHECRs data below GZK cut-off with the predictions of the LIRG origin than with those of isotropy. We derive analytical formulae for a probability of a given number of doublets, triplets and quadruplets for any density distribution of independent events on the sky. The famous AGASA UHE triple event is found to be very well correlated on the sky with the brightest extragalactic infrared source within 70 Mpc - merger galaxies Arp 299 (NGC 3690 + IC 694).Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publ: Journal of Physics

Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere

Published© 2016 Royal Meteorological Society. We investigate seasonal forecasts of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their relationship with the stratosphere. Climatological frequencies of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events are well represented and the predicted risk of events varies between 25 and 90% from winter to winter, indicating predictability beyond the deterministic range. The risk of SSW and SPV events relates to predicted NAO as expected, with NAO shifts of -6.5 and +4.8hPa in forecast members containing SSW and SPV events. Most striking of all is that forecast skill of the surface winter NAO vanishes from these hindcasts if members containing SSW events are excluded.This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the UK Public Weather Service research program and the European Union Framework 7 SPECS project. The contribution of AYK is funded by FMI’s tenure track program and the Academy of Finland under grant 286298