Assessing the probative value of DNA evidence: guidance for judges, lawyers, forensic scientists and expert witnesses

Practical guidance for judges, lawyers, forensic scientists and expert witnesses on the logical analysis of DNA profiles, and their probative value in criminal proceedings. Explains technical aspects of DNA profiling and how this information should be presented and interpreted in criminal trials

Interpretation of DNA data within the context of UK forensic science — investigation

This article is the second part of a review of the interpretation of DNA data in forensic science. The first part describes the evaluation of autosomal profile for criminal trials where an evidential weight is assigned to the profile of a person of interest (POI) and a crime-scene profile. This part describes the state of the art and future advances in the interpretation of forensic DNA data for providing intelligence information during an investigation. Forensic DNA is crucial in the investigative phase of an undetected crime where a POI needs to be identified. A sample taken from a crime scene is profiled using a range of forensic DNA tests. This review covers investigation using autosomal profiles including searching national and international crime and reference DNA databases. Other investigative methodologies described are kinship analysis; familial searching; Y chromosome (Y-STR) and mitochondrial (mtDNA) profiles; appearance prediction and geographic ancestry; forensic genetic genealogy; and body identification. For completeness, the evaluation of Y-STRs, mtDNA and kinship analysis are briefly described. Taken together, parts I and II, cover the range of interpretation of DNA data in a forensic context

A UK-based ground truth data set of GCMS analysed ignitable liquid samples — a template for making chromatographic data accessible as an open source data set

Fire debris is often recovered as part of a fire scene investigation to determine whether an ignitable liquid might be present which may be evidence of a deliberate fire. The analysis of fire debris produces chromatograms that a forensic chemist uses to determine whether or not an ignitable liquid may be present. Currently there are very few publicly available data sets that can be used for training and statistical modelling in this area. The data set in this paper has been prepared with these two applications in mind and covers a wide range of ignitable liquids available in the UK. We created a data set of 35 ignitable liquids including petrol (gasoline), light, medium and heavy petroleum distillates (i.e diesel) from several retailers. Each ignitable liquid was systematically evaporated to produce six additional samples. Each sample was repetitively analysed to provide an overall data set of 751 analytical outputs (including chromatograms). Each data sample is expressed in multiple formats and the metadata containing any data used in the production of the samples is included. The folder and file names are designed to avoid misplacements and to manipulate folders and files systematically using computer code

A Ground Truth Data Set of Gas Chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS) Analysed Synthesised Methylenedioxymethylamphetamine (MDMA)

An open source format data set of Methylenedioxymethylamphetamine. This data set was derived from a PhD project which involved the repetitive chemical synthesis of a series of methylenedioxymethylamphetamine (MDMA) samples following a series of known synthetic chemical routes. Controlled drug samples are normally chemically analysed to determine their identity and in some cases, their purity. There are also circumstances where a more broad chemical characterisation of drug samples may also be required. This involves investigating the chemical impurities that may be present in a drug sample as a consequence of their synthesis. This ‘impurity or drug profiling’ can be derived from drugs which are synthesised chemically or extracted from plant materials and then modified chemically. Impurity profiling can provide some insight into the synthetic methods used and sometimes the starting chemicals used. We report on the data generated from repetitive (n=18) synthesis of ecstasy (methylenedioxymethylamphetamine or MDMA) made by three different synthetic methods. Each data sample is expressed in multiple formats. Data are made available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license

Assessing the probative value of DNA evidence: guidance for judges, lawyers, forensic scientists and expert witnesses

Practical guidance for judges, lawyers, forensic scientists and expert witnesses on the logical analysis of DNA profiles, and their probative value in criminal proceedings. Explains technical aspects of DNA profiling and how this information should be presented and interpreted in criminal trials

Calculation of likelihood ratios for inference of biological sex from human skeletal remains

It is common in forensic anthropology to draw inferences (e.g., inferences with respect to biological sex of human remains) using statistical models applied to anthropometric data. Commonly used models can output posterior probabilities, but a threshold is usually applied in order to obtain a classification. In the forensic-anthropology literature, there is some unease with this “fall-off-the-cliff” approach. Proposals have been made to exclude results that fall within a “zone of uncertainty”, e.g., if the posterior probability for “male” is greater than 0.95 then the remains are classified as male, and if the posterior probability for “male” is less than 0.05 then the remains are classified as female, but if the posterior probability for “male” is between 0.05 and 0.95 the remains are not classified as either male or female. In the present paper, we propose what we believe is a simpler solution that is in line with interpretation of evidence in other branches of forensic science: implementation of the likelihood-ratio framework using relevant data, quantitative measurements, and statistical models. Statistical models that can implement this approach are already widely used in forensic anthropology. All that is required are minor modifications in the way those models are used and a change in the way practitioners and researchers think about the meaning of the output of those models. We explain how to calculate likelihood ratios using osteometric data and linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, and logistic regression models. We also explain how to empirically validate likelihood-ratio models

Estimation of Parameters in DNA Mixture Analysis

In Cowell et al. (2007), a Bayesian network for analysis of mixed traces of DNA was presented using gamma distributions for modelling peak sizes in the electropherogram. It was demonstrated that the analysis was sensitive to the choice of a variance factor and hence this should be adapted to any new trace analysed. In the present paper we discuss how the variance parameter can be estimated by maximum likelihood to achieve this. The unknown proportions of DNA from each contributor can similarly be estimated by maximum likelihood jointly with the variance parameter. Furthermore we discuss how to incorporate prior knowledge about the parameters in a Bayesian analysis. The proposed estimation methods are illustrated through a few examples of applications for calculating evidential value in casework and for mixture deconvolution

Assessing the probative value of DNA evidence: guidance for judges, lawyers, forensic scientists and expert witnesses

Practical guidance for judges, lawyers, forensic scientists and expert witnesses on the logical analysis of DNA profiles, and their probative value in criminal proceedings. Explains technical aspects of DNA profiling and how this information should be presented and interpreted in criminal trials