Principios e interés de los test Bondad de Ajuste (GOF) para los modelos de captura–recaptura multiestado

Optimal goodness–of–fit procedures for multistate models are new. Drawing a parallel with the corresponding single–state procedures, we present their singularities and show how the overall test can be decomposed into interpretable components. All theoretical developments are illustrated with an application to the now classical study of movements of Canada geese between wintering sites. Through this application, we exemplify how the interpretable components give insight into the data, leading eventually to the choice of an appropriate general model but also sometimes to the invalidation of the multistate models as a whole. The method for computing a corrective overdispersion factor is then mentioned. We also take the opportunity to try to demystify some statistical notions like that of Minimal Sufficient Statistics by introducing them intuitively. We conclude that these tests should be considered an important part of the analysis itself, contributing in ways that the parametric modelling cannot always do to the understanding of the data.Los procedimientos óptimos de bondad de ajuste, aplicados a los modelos multiestado, son nuevos. Trazando un paralelismo con los correspondientes procesos de uniestado, presentamos sus articularidades y mostramos como el test general puede descomponerse en componentes susceptibles de ser interpretados. Todos los desarrollos teóricos están ilustrados con una aplicación del ya clásico estudio de los desplazamientos de la barnacla canadiense entre sus lugares de invernada. Mediante esta aplicación, presentamos un ejemplo de cómo los componentes susceptibles de ser interpretados nos proporcionan una idea de los datos que nos pueden llevar a la elección de un modelo general apropiado, pero también a veces a la invalidación de los modelos de multiestados en su conjunto. Se menciona entonces el método para calcular un factor de corrección de la sobredispersión. Aprovechamos esta ocasión para intentar también desmitificar algunas nociones estadísticas, como las Estadísticas Suficientes Mínimas, introduciéndolas intuitivamente. La conclusión es que estas pruebas deberían considerarse una parte importante del propio análisis, contribuyendo a la comprensión de los datos, de un modo que el modelaje paramétrico no siempre consigue

M–SURGE: new software specifically designed for multistate capture–recapture models

M–SURGE, al igual que su compañero, el programa U–CARE, se ha escrito con el propósito específico de manejar modelos multiestado de captura–recaptura, lo que a su vez permite mitigar las dificultades inherentes a los mismos (especificación de los modelos, calidad de la convergencia, flexibilidad de parametrización, evaluación del ajuste). En su terreno, M–SURGE abarca una gama de modelos más extensa que un programa general, como el MARK (White & Burnham, 1999), al tiempo que resulta más accesible para el usuario que el MS–SURVIV (Hines, 1994). De entre las principales características del M–SURGE, cabe destacar una amplia gama de modelos y varias parametrizaciones: (1) M–SURGE abarca los modelos condicionales con probabilidad de recaptura según el estado actual (modelos tipo Arnason–Schwarz), y según el estado actual y previo (modelos tipo Jolly–movement). En ambos casos, es posible examinar los efectos dependientes de la edad y/o del tiempo, así como grupos múltiples. (2) Las probabilidades combinadas de supervivencia–transición pueden representarse como tales, o descomponerse en probabilidades de transición y supervivencia. (3) Por lo que respecta a las probabilidades de transición con el mismo estado de partida, el usuario puede elegir libremente la probabilidad que deberá calcularse por sustracción. Además de ser un programa muy accesible para el usuario, también debe subrayarse la facilidad con que permite construir modelos constreñidos utilizando un lenguaje interpretado denominado GEMACO. En este estudio desarrollamos y presentamos varios tipos de modelos multiestado.M–SURGE (along with its companion program U–CARE) has been written specifically to handle multistate capture–recapture models and to alleviate their inherent difficulties (model specification, quality of convergence, flexibility of parameterization, assessment of fit). In its domain, M–SURGE covers a broader range of models than a general program like MARK (White & Burnham, 1999), while being more user–friendly than MS–SURVIV (Hines, 1994). Among the main features of M–SURGE is a wide class of models and a variety of parameterizations: (1) M–SURGE covers conditional models with probability of recapture depending on the current state (Arnason–Schwarz type models) as well as on the current and previous state (Jolly–movement type models). In both cases, age and/or time–dependence and multiple groups can be considered. (2) Combined survival–transition probabilities can be represented as such or decomposed into transition and survival probabilities. (3) Among the transition probabilities with the same state of departure, the one to be computed by subtraction can be freely picked by the user. User–friendliness is enhanced by the easiness with which constrained models are built, using an interpreted language called GEMACO. Examples of various types of multistate models are developed and presented

Rings and rigidity transitions in network glasses

Three elastic phases of covalent networks, (I) floppy, (II) isostatically rigid and (III) stressed-rigid have now been identified in glasses at specific degrees of cross-linking (or chemical composition) both in theory and experiments. Here we use size-increasing cluster combinatorics and constraint counting algorithms to study analytically possible consequences of self-organization. In the presence of small rings that can be locally I, II or III, we obtain two transitions instead of the previously reported single percolative transition at the mean coordination number $\bar r=2.4$, one from a floppy to an isostatic rigid phase, and a second one from an isostatic to a stressed rigid phase. The width of the intermediate phase $~ \bar r$ and the order of the phase transitions depend on the nature of medium range order (relative ring fractions). We compare the results to the Group IV chalcogenides, such as Ge-Se and Si-Se, for which evidence of an intermediate phase has been obtained, and for which estimates of ring fractions can be made from structures of high T crystalline phases.Comment: 29 pages, revtex, 7 eps figure

Examination of stick-slip scenario on lubricated spring-brake systems

Several complex mechanisms can be responsible for undesirable friction-induced vibrations in many mechanical systems. This paper presents a tribological and dynamic analysis of the stick-slip problem, under greased lubrication, taking into account the practical application of a spring-brake system used in electric tubular motors. The main functioning of these brakes is based on the frictional greased contact between a stationary cylinder and a torsional spring, which rotates inside it. The identification of the parameters that most affect the stick-slip appearance in greased contacts requires a complete understanding and appropriate analysis of the entire system, to identify the effects of all physical parameters on the system. Here the global dynamics and the local contact behaviour is analysed, providing an in-depth examination of the stick-slip phenomenon on a greased contact

Modeling Trap-Awareness and Related Phenomena in Capture-Recapture Studies

Trap-awareness and related phenomena whereby successive capture events are not independent is a feature of the majority of capture-recapture studies. This phenomenon was up to now difficult to incorporate in open population models and most authors have chosen to neglect it although this may have damaging consequences. Focusing on the situation where animals exhibit a trap response at the occasion immediately following one where they have been trapped but revert to their original naïve state if they are missed once, we show that trap-dependence is more naturally viewed as a state transition and is amenable to the current models of capture-recapture. This approach has the potential to accommodate lasting or progressively waning trap effects

Faster linearizability checking via PP-compositionality

Linearizability is a well-established consistency and correctness criterion for concurrent data types. An important feature of linearizability is Herlihy and Wing's locality principle, which says that a concurrent system is linearizable if and only if all of its constituent parts (so-called objects) are linearizable. This paper presents $P$-compositionality, which generalizes the idea behind the locality principle to operations on the same concurrent data type. We implement $P$-compositionality in a novel linearizability checker. Our experiments with over nine implementations of concurrent sets, including Intel's TBB library, show that our linearizability checker is one order of magnitude faster and/or more space efficient than the state-of-the-art algorithm.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figure

High catalytic efficiency of palladium nanoparticles immobilized in a polymer membrane containing poly(ionic liquid) in Suzuki–Miyaura cross-coupling reaction

The elaboration of a polymeric catalytic membrane containing palladium nanoparticles is presented. The membrane was prepared using a photo-grafting process with imidazolium-based ionic liquid monomers as modifying agent and microPES® as support membrane. Ionic liquid serves as a stabilizer and immobilizer for the catalytic species, i.e. palladium nanoparticles. The Suzuki–Miyaura cross-coupling reaction was carried out on the catalytic membrane in flow-through configuration. Complete conversion was achieved in 10 s through one single filtration, without formation of byproducts. The apparent reaction rate constant was three orders of magnitude greater than in a batch reactor. No catalyst leaching was detected. This membrane offers the possibility of continuous production with no need for a separation step of the catalyst from the reaction medium

ClbP is a prototype of a peptidase subgroup involved in biosynthesis of nonribosomal peptides

The pks genomic island of Escherichia coli encodes polyketide (PK) and nonribosomal peptide (NRP) synthases that allow assembly of a putative hybrid PK-NRP compound named colibactin that induces DNA double-strand breaks in eukaryotic cells. The pks-encoded machinery harbors an atypical essential protein, ClbP. ClbP crystal structure and mutagenesis experiments revealed a serine-active site and original structural features compatible with peptidase activity, which was detected by biochemical assays. Ten ClbP homologs were identified in silico in NRP genomic islands of closely and distantly related bacterial species. All tested ClbP homologs were able to complement a clbP-deficient E. coli mutant. ClbP is therefore a prototype of a new subfamily of extracytoplasmic peptidases probably involved in the maturation of NRP compounds. Such peptidases will be powerful tools for the manipulation of NRP biosynthetic pathways

Superluminal motion of a relativistic jet in the neutron star merger GW170817

The binary neutron star merger GW170817 was accompanied by radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum and localized to the galaxy NGC 4993 at a distance of 41+/-3 Mpc. The radio and X-ray afterglows of GW170817 exhibited delayed onset, a gradual rise in the emission with time as t^0.8, a peak at about 150 days post-merger, followed by a relatively rapid decline. To date, various models have been proposed to explain the afterglow emission, including a choked-jet cocoon and a successful-jet cocoon (a.k.a. structured jet). However, the observational data have remained inconclusive as to whether GW170817 launched a successful relativistic jet. Here we show, through Very Long Baseline Interferometry, that the compact radio source associated with GW170817 exhibits superluminal motion between two epochs at 75 and 230 days post-merger. This measurement breaks the degeneracy between the models and indicates that, while the early-time radio emission was powered by a wider-angle outflow (cocoon), the late-time emission was most likely dominated by an energetic and narrowly-collimated jet, with an opening angle of <5 degrees, and observed from a viewing angle of about 20 degrees. The imaging of a collimated relativistic outflow emerging from GW170817 adds substantial weight to the growing evidence linking binary neutron star mergers and short gamma-ray bursts.Comment: 42 pages, 4 figures (main text), 2 figures (supplementary text), 2 tables. Referee and editor comments incorporate