Worst Case Scenario and Stakeholder Group Decision: A 5-6 Meter Sea Level Rise in the Rhone Delta, France

Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5-6m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030-2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop. Group process analysis shows a high level of trust and cooperation mobilized to face the 5-6m SLR issue, despite potentially diverging interests. Two sets of recommendations stem from the scenario workshop. A conservative "wait and see" option is decided when the risk of the WAIS collapse is announced in 2030. After WAIS collapse generates an effective 1m SLR rise by 2050, decisions are taken for total retreat and rendering of the Rhone delta to its hydrological function. The transposition of these results into present times policy decisions could be considered. The methodology developed here could be applied to other risk objects and situations, and serve for policy exercises and crisis prevention.Sea level rise, France, Camargue, scenario, extreme climate, stakeholder workshop

Using simulation of accidents to assess resilience capacities of organizations

Available on: http://www.resilience-engineering.org/REPapers/Wybo_et_al.pdfInternational audienceThis paper deals with the organization of simulation exercises to train organizations to face emergencies. The original objective of simulations is to train people to emergency procedures and devices; we raise the question of training people to face potential crisis situations: are simulations fitted to that objective? Through the observation of a number of exercises by private companies and rescue services, we can answer that naïve interpretation of simulation results limits their benefits to the correction of gaps between prescribed and observed actions, without addressing complex organizational behavior. We introduce a method to organize simulations that gives access to this complexity and to the resilience capacities of the organization by giving specific roles to observers. This method uses a model of the organization seen as a combination of structures, relations and meaning

Faint Infrared Flares from the Microquasar GRS 1915+105

We present simultaneous infrared and X-ray observations of the Galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105 using the Palomar 5-m telescope and Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer on July 10, 1998 UT. Over the course of 5 hours, we observed 6 faint infrared (IR) flares with peak amplitudes of $\sim 0.3-0.6$ mJy and durations of $\sim 500-600$ seconds. These flares are associated with X-ray soft-dip/soft-flare cycles, as opposed to the brighter IR flares associated with X-ray hard-dip/soft-flare cycles seen in August 1997 by Eikenberry et al. (1998). Interestingly, the IR flares begin {\it before} the X-ray oscillations, implying an ``outside-in'' origin of the IR/X-ray cycle. We also show that the quasi-steady IR excess in August 1997 is due to the pile-up of similar faint flares. We discuss the implications of this flaring behavior for understanding jet formation in microquasars.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Shear Refinement of Formaldehyde-Free Corn Starch and Mimosa Tannin (Acacia mearnsii) Wood Adhesives

The aim of this work was to reduce the viscosity of formaldehyde-free corn starch–mimosa tannin wood adhesives, without adversely affecting the mechanical properties of the product. The reduction of viscosity was achieved using shear refinement. The study focused on the physical phenomena before cross-linking of the wood adhesive. The physical (rheological characterization) and mechanical (bond strength) properties of formaldehyde-free corn starch and mimosa tannin wood adhesives were measured. The results showed that the shear refinement (290 rpm and 5 min, optimal conditions) reduced the viscosity of the corn starch–mimosa tannin wood adhesives (from 100 000 to 458 Pa s) with the advantage of being stable over time. Mechanical tests showed that the shear refinement did not influence the mechanical properties of corn starch–mimosa tannin wood adhesives

Engaging the Public with CCUS: Reflection on a European Project Approach

The aim of this paper is to share our approach for a societal engagement and participation process that is implemented as part of two sequential research projects on CCUS. The two projects are both funded under the European Union’s (EU) Horizon 2020 research program. The first one, STRATEGY CCUS (2019-2022), develops strategic development plans for eight regions in South-East Europe; the second, Pilot STRATEGY (2021-2026), partly builds on the first project; Pilot STRATEGY aims at enabling three of the eight regions to start developing their storage resources concretely and to support two further regions in continuing to explore CCUS as an option. Both projects were designed in a way that they integrate geological, technical and economic research with social sciences, with a focus on the regional level. The paper provides an overview on the concept, objectives and the methodologies for the engagement process. It further includes reflections identifying room for improvement and provides recommendations for other projects. Overall, we find that the situation is characterized by low levels of awareness regarding CCUS, but some openness to discuss it. Specific expectations vary and the societal view is not always in line with the current scientific knowledge and the technological development. Important recommendations include building strong interdisciplinary teams that also implement processes for self-reflection.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Socio-political profiles to inform a cross-national survey in France, Germany, Norway and the UK.

European countries must continue cooperating with each other on global issues like climate change, regardless of the recent referendum result in the UK. Brexit makes understanding different nations’ perceptions even more important. By understanding how different European countries perceive climate change, progress can be made towards addressing the issue

Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

As a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the 21st century. This study investigates changes in drought occurrence, frequency, and severity in Europe in the next decades. A combined indicator based on the predominance of the drought signal over normal/wet conditions has been used. The indicator, which combines the standardized precipitation index (SPI, which accounts for anomalous low rainfall), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI, which accounts for high temperatures and scarce precipitations), and the reconnaissance drought indicator (RDI, similar to SPEI but more affected by extreme events), has been computed at 3- and 12-month accumulation scales to characterize trends in seasonal and annual events from 1981 to 2100. Climate data from 11 bias-adjusted high-resolution (0.11°) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX (coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment) have been used in the analyses. For each simulation, the frequency and severity of drought and extreme drought events for 1981–2010, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 have been analysed. Under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5), droughts are projected to become increasingly more frequent and severe in the Mediterranean area, western Europe, and Northern Scandinavia, whereas the whole European continent, with the exception of Iceland, will be affected by more frequent and severe extreme droughts under the most severe emission scenario (RCP8.5), especially after 2070. Seasonally, drought frequency is projected to increase everywhere in Europe for both scenarios in spring and summer, especially over southern Europe, and less intensely in autumn; on the contrary, winter shows a decrease in drought frequency over northern Europe.Fil: Spinoni, Jonathan. European Commission Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Vogt, Jürgen V.. European Commission Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Barbosa, Paulo. European Commission Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Dosio, Alessandro. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Itali