Unraveling population trends in Italy (1921–2021) with spatial econometrics

Testing density-dependence and path-dependence in long-term population dynamics under differentiated local contexts contributes to delineate the changing role of socioeconomic forces at the base of regional disparities. Despite a millenary settlement history, such issue has been rarely investigated in Europe, and especially in highly divided countries such as those in the Mediterranean region. Using econometric modeling to manage spatial heterogeneity, our study verifies the role of selected drivers of population growth at ten times between 1921 and 2021 in more than 8000 Italian municipalities verifying density-dependent and path-dependent dynamics. Results of global and quantile (spatial) regressions highlight a differential impact of density and (lagged) population growth on demographic dynamics along the urban cycle in Italy. Being weakly significant in the inter-war period (1921-1951), econometric models totalized a high goodness-of-fit in correspondence with compact urbanization (1951-1981). Model's fit declined in the following decades (1981-2021) reflecting suburbanization and counter-urbanization. Density-dependence and path-dependence were found significant and, respectively, positive or negative, with compact urbanization, and much less intense with suburbanization and counter-urbanization. A spatial econometric investigation of density-dependent and path-dependent mechanisms of population dynamics provided an original explanation of metropolitan cycles, delineating the evolution of socioeconomic (local) systems along the urban-rural gradient

Institutions and literacy rates: the legacy of Napoleonic reforms in Italy

The provincial gap in human capital at the time of Italy’s unification is a plausible explanation for the North–South divide of the following decades.We show that the roots of the literacy gap that existed in 1861 can be traced back to Napoleonic educational reforms enacted between 1801 and 1814.We use exogenous variation in provincial distance to Paris to quantify effects, linking the duration of Napoleonic control to human capital. If the south had experienced the same Napoleonic impact as the north, southern literacy rates would have been up to 70 percent higher than they were in 1861

Politiche di Bilancio e Debito Pubblico nella Storia Italiana: Un Modello Non Lineare

Are Italy’s primary-surplus policies compatible with the sustainability of government debt? We address the question by examining historical budget data in post-unification Italy, over the 150 years from 1862 to 2012. Controlling for temporary output, temporary spending and world war-time periods in assessing whether primary surpluses significantly reacted to changes in debt, we find the following results: (i) the hypothesis of nonlinearity in the surplus-debt relationship significantly outperforms the hypothesis of linearity; (ii) there exists a threshold level in the debt-GDP ratio, approximately equal to 111%, above which Italian fiscal policy makers are concerned with corrective actions to avoid insolvency; (iii) the robustly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt beyond the trigger point ensures fiscal sustainability

A Reconstruction of the Italian Provincial Population (ca. 1770-1861): a new dataset

We present the first ever analysis of the provincial population in Italy since ca. 1770, using 1911 boundaries, and providing a key variable for future studies on Italian economic history. The new data reveal, in line with national figures, two distinct stages: one of low population growth before 1821, and one of higher growth after 1821. A preliminary inspection suggests that the process of Unification did not represent a significant factor of change in the demographic trends of the majority of the Italian provinces, with only a few exceptions. Rather, it seems that the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the period of Restoration constituted the key dynamics in driving population growth

Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy, 1861-2009

We examine the historical dynamics of government debt in post-unification Italy, from 1861 to 2009. Unit root tests for the debt-GDP ratio are unable to reject either the non-stationarity or the stationarity null hypothesis. Controlling debt dynamics for fiscal feedback policies of the Barro-Bohn style, however, the debt-GDP ratio is found to be mean-reverting. Mean-reversion in the debt-GDP ratio is due not only to a nominal growth dividend, but also to a positive response of primary surpluses to variations in outstanding debt. There is indeed significant evidence that, over the history of Italy, fiscal policy makers have reacted to the accumulation of debt, taking corrective measures to rule out potential long-term sustainability problems