Outcomes of Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma evansi infections on health of Southern coati (Nasua nasua), crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous), and ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) in the Brazilian Pantanal.

The occurrence of Trypanosoma spp. in wild carnivore populations has been intensively investigated during the last decades. However, the impact of these parasites on the health of free-living infected animals has been largely neglected. The Pantanal biome is the world's largest seasonal wetland, harboring a great diversity of species and habitats. This includes 174 species of mammals, of which 20 belong to the order Carnivora. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of Trypanosoma evansi and Trypanosoma cruzi infections and coinfections on the health of the most abundant carnivores in the Pantanal: coati (Nasua nasua), crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous), and ocelot (Leopardus pardalis). We captured 39 coatis, 48 crab-eating foxes, and 19 ocelots. Diagnostic tests showed T. cruzi infection in 7 crab-eating foxes and 5 coatis. Additionally, 7 crab-eating foxes, 10 coatis, and 12 ocelots were positive for T. evansi. We observed coinfections in 9 crab-eating foxes, 8 coatis, and 2 ocelots. This is the first report of T. evansi and T. cruzi infection on the health of free-living ocelots and crab-eating foxes. We showed that single T. evansi or T. cruzi infection, as well as coinfection, caused some degree of anemia in all animals, as well as an indirect negative effect on body condition in coatis and crab-eating foxes via anemia indicators and immune investment, respectively. Furthermore, the vigorous immune investment observed in sampled coatis, crab-eating foxes and ocelots infected by T. evansi, T. cruzi and coinfected can be highly harmful to their health. Overall, our results indicate that single and combined infection with T. evansi and T. cruzi represent a severe risk to the health of wild carnivores in the Pantanal region

Previsões climáticas sazonais sobre o Brasil: avaliação do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA Seasonal climatic forecast over Brazil: evaluation of the RegCM3 model nested to the CPTEC/COLA global model

Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP), respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões) foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE), Sudeste (SDE) e Sul (SUL). As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência), nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL) a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.<br>This study presents an assessment of seasonal forecasts from the regional climate model RegCM3 nested to the CPTEC/COLA global model. The used RegCM3 version is 60 km horizontal resolution over an area that includes large part of South America. RegCM3 and CPTEC/COLA forecasts were evaluated using the rainfall and air temperature analyses from Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), respectively. From May 2005 to July 2007, 27 seasonal forecast of rainfall and air temperature (except for air temperature from CPTEC/COLA with 26 forecasts) were evaluated over three regions of Brazil: Northeast (NDE), Southeast (SDE) and South (SUL). RegCM3 forecasts were also compared with the climatologic fields of the analyses. The statistical indexes (bias, correlation coefficient, root mean square error and efficiency coefficient) showed that over the three regions (NDE, SDE and SUL) the RegCM3 predicted seasonal rainfall is closer to the observations than the CPTEC/COLA. Moreover, the RegCM3 is a best predictor of the seasonal rainfall than the average of the observations during the period. For air temperature, the RegCM3 forecasts perform better than the CPTEC/COLA over NDE and SUL regions, while the CPTEC/COLA shows better performance ovver SDE. Finally, the RegCM3 seasonal air temperature and rainfall estimated are closer to the observations than the observed climatology. These results suggest a potential utility of RegCM3 to be used for seasonal forecast which will be explored in the future using ensemble forecast