762 research outputs found
Radial Velocity along the Voyager 1 Trajectory: The Effect of Solar Cycle
As Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 are approaching the heliopause (HP)βthe boundary between the solar wind (SW) and the local interstellar medium (LISM)βwe expect new, unknown features of the heliospheric interface to be revealed. A seeming puzzle reported recently by Krimigis et al. concerns the unusually low, even negative, radial velocity components derived from the energetic ion distribution. Steady-state plasma models of the inner heliosheath (IHS) show that the radial velocity should not be equal to zero even at the surface of the HP. Here we demonstrate that the velocity distributions observed by Voyager 1 are consistent with time-dependent simulations of the SW-LISM interaction. In this Letter, we analyze the results from a numerical model of the large-scale heliosphere that includes solar cycle effects. Our simulations show that prolonged periods of low to negative radial velocity can exist in the IHS at substantial distances from the HP. It is also shown that Voyager 1 was more likely to observe such regions than Voyager 2
Quantitative Biological Electron Probe Microanalysis with a Wavelength Dispersive Spectrometer
This paper describes the details of quantitative electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) performed with a wavelength dispersive spectrometer (WDS). EPMA was carried out on the giant neuron of a fresh frozen ganglion from the snail Lymnaea stagnalis. The freeze-dried cryosections were compared with sections of freeze-dried, embedded tissue. It was found, that in the ganglion there are two kinds of neurons with a different chlorine concentration of 11 mmole/liter and 32 mmole/liter. Isolated neurons in culture were shown to differ in elemental composition from those in the ganglion tissue
Quantum Electrodynamics at Extremely Small Distances
The asymptotics of the Gell-Mann - Low function in QED can be determined
exactly, \beta(g)= g at g\to\infty, where g=e^2 is the running fine structure
constant. It solves the problem of pure QED at small distances L and gives the
behavior g\sim L^{-2}.Comment: Latex, 6 pages, 1 figure include
Transport Processes in Metal-Insulator Granular Layers
Tunnel transport processes are considered in a square lattice of metallic
nanogranules embedded into insulating host to model tunnel conduction in real
metal/insulator granular layers. Based on a simple model with three possible
charging states (, or 0) of a granule and three kinetic processes
(creation or recombination of a pair, and charge transfer) between
neighbor granules, the mean-field kinetic theory is developed. It describes the
interplay between charging energy and temperature and between the applied
electric field and the Coulomb fields by the non-compensated charge density.
The resulting charge and current distributions are found to be essentially
different in the free area (FA), between the metallic contacts, or in the
contact areas (CA), beneath those contacts. Thus, the steady state dc transport
is only compatible with zero charge density and ohmic resistivity in FA, but
charge accumulation and non-ohmic behavior are \emph{necessary} for conduction
over CA. The approximate analytic solutions are obtained for characteristic
regimes (low or high charge density) of such conduction. The comparison is done
with the measurement data on tunnel transport in related experimental systems.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures, 1 reference corrected, acknowlegments adde
THE PHENOMENON OF VIRTUAL IDENTITY: THE CONTEMPORARY CONDITION OF THE PROBLEM
Introduction. Modern society is characterized by the formation of a new socio-cultural environment, which is based on a wide access to a variety of sources of information. Mass distribution of the Internet has a direct impact on socialization processes of the representatives of βZ-generationβ who spend enormous amount of time in a cyberspace, quite often losing at the same time an ability of real personal development, interest in acquisition of skills for real interaction and effective communication. In this regard, the research of a phenomenon of a new, virtual identity of the personality, which is formed in the Internet environment, is brought into focus. The aim of the present publication is to consider the current level of knowledge in the field of virtual identity and systematization of scientific knowledge of this phenomenon. Methodology and research methods. Theoretical analysis, methods of synthesis and generalization were used. Results and scientific novelty. Various approaches to interpretation of virtual identity are considered; research tendencies are highlighted. The concepts βreal identityβ and βvirtual identityβ are viewed in relation to each other; the features and risks of virtual identity formation are revealed. The functions of virtual identity are specified. It is revealed that virtual identity reflects the subjectively significant image of the βIdeal-Iβ which is compiled from the completed material, character set and graphic images of the Internet environment, and therefore does not possess the uniqueness. Factors of designing by the person of virtual identity are described. Virtual identity can arise as a result of dissatisfaction with real identity, as a consequence of the identification crisis, in which the individual loses integrity. At the same time, it is shown that the cyberspace gives ample opportunities for self-expression and maximum personal fulfillment, realization of qualities, playing of roles and experience of emotions which turn out to be frustrated under any circumstances in real life. Problem areas of excessive immersion into virtual space are identified. An immature personality can lose life orientations as well as acquire the programmed decisions and ready cogitative patterns through excessive Internet use. The social activity in the Internet environment significantly reduces the moral level of communication on social networking sites and messengers. Aspiration always βto be onlineβ, fear to miss a new message or a post aggravate anxiety of the user, increase the feeling of fatigue and uncontrollable temper, scant attention and strongwilled self-regulation, aggravation of a hypodynamia.The authors conclude that is required to continue to study the specifics of socialization in the Internet environment since it generates new forms of age development, changes the tasks and ideas of children and teenagers about social relations, and transforms an ideal image of the subsequent age stages in their consciousness. Practical significance. The results of the work carried out can be applied in the activities of teachers, social educators, educators, psychologists and otherΒ specialists who deal with the questions of socialization of modern children and adolescents.Β ΠΠ²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅. Π ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΌ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΆΠ°Π΅ΡΡΡ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠΎΠΊΡΠ»ΡΡΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΠ΅Π΄Ρ, ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π½ΠΎΠΉ Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΡΠΉ Π΄ΠΎΡΡΡΠΏ ΠΊ ΡΠ°Π·Π½ΠΎΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΈΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΠΌ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ. ΠΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ΅ ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈ ΠΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ½Π΅Ρ ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·ΡΠ²Π°Π΅Ρ Π½Π΅ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠ΅ Π²Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΠ΅ Π½Π° ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ°Π²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Β«Z-ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠΎΠ»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡΒ», ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½ΠΈ Π² ΠΊΠΈΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½ΡΡΠ²Π΅, Π½Π΅ΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΊΠΎ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠ²Π°Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΠΌ ΡΠΏΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΡ, ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Ρ ΠΊ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π½Π°Π²ΡΠΊΠΎΠ² ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π²Π·Π°ΠΈΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΠΉΡΡΠ²ΠΈΡ ΠΈ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΡ
, Π½ΠΈΡΠ΅ΠΌ Π½Π΅ ΠΎΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΌΡΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΠΉ. Π ΡΠ²ΡΠ·ΠΈ Ρ ΡΡΠΈΠΌ Π°ΠΊΡΡΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½Π° Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ, Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΉΡΡ Π² ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ½Π΅Ρ-ΡΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅. Π¦Π΅Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠ±Π»ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ β ΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠΆΠ΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΎΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ·ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΡ Π½Π°ΡΡΠ½ΡΡ
Π·Π½Π°Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΎ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅. ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ, ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ²ΡΠΈΠ΅ΡΡ Π² ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ΅, β ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·, ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π· ΠΈ ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅. Π Π΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ ΠΈ Π½Π°ΡΡΠ½Π°Ρ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°. Π Π°ΡΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π½Ρ ΡΠ°Π·Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΊ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΏΡΠ΅ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Ρ ΡΠ΅Π½Π΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΠΈ Π΅Π΅ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ. Π‘ΠΎΠΎΡΠ½Π΅ΡΠ΅Π½Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ½ΡΡΠΈΡ Β«ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡΒ» ΠΈ Β«Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡΒ», Π²ΡΡΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Ρ ΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ»Π΅Π΄Π½Π΅ΠΉ. Π£ΡΠΎΡΠ½Π΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ. Π ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΌ Π²ΠΈΠ΄Π΅ ΠΎΠ½Π° ΠΎΡΡΠ°ΠΆΠ°Π΅Ρ ΡΡΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎ-Π·Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΡΠΉ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π· Β«ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π―Β», ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΡΠΉ, ΠΎΠ΄Π½Π°ΠΊΠΎ, ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠΈΠ»ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΈΠ· Π³ΠΎΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ°Π»Π°, Π½Π°Π±ΠΎΡΠ° ΡΠΈΠΌΠ²ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ Π³ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ½Π΅Ρ-ΡΡΠ΅Π΄Ρ ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠΎΠΌΡ Π½Π΅ ΠΎΠ±Π»Π°Π΄Π°Π΅Ρ ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡΡ. ΠΠΏΠΈΡΠ°Π½Ρ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΠ²Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠΌ Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ Π²ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎ Π²ΠΎΠ·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ½Π΅ Π½Π΅ΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠ²ΠΈΠ΄Π° ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ΅ΠΉ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡΡ ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ Π²ΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΡΠ²ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΊΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΠ° ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π½ΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ, ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠΎΠΌ Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π΅Ρ ΡΠ΅Π»ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ. ΠΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠ΅ Ρ ΡΠ΅ΠΌ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½ΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ ΠΊΠΈΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΠ΅Ρ ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠΊΠΈΠ΅ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΎΠ²ΡΡΠ°ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈ ΠΌΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ°ΡΠΊΡΡΡΠΈΡ Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ°Π»Π°, ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ², ΠΏΡΠΎΠΈΠ³ΡΡΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΎΠ»Π΅ΠΉ ΠΈ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΠΆΠΈΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΌΠΎΡΠΈΠΉ, ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π²ΡΠΈΡ
ΡΡ ΠΈΠ·-Π·Π° ΠΊΠ°ΠΊΠΈΡ
-Π»ΠΈΠ±ΠΎ ΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡΡΠ² ΡΡΡΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ Π² ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΆΠΈΠ·Π½ΠΈ. ΠΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ½ΡΠ΅ Π·ΠΎΠ½Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π·ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π² Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ. ΠΠ»ΠΎΡΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π±Π»ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π±ΡΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ Π² Π½Π΅ΠΌ, Π½Π΅Π·ΡΠ΅Π»Π°Ρ Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΡΡ ΠΆΠΈΠ·Π½Π΅Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΎΡΠΈΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΡΡ, ΡΡΠ²ΠΎΠΈΡΡ Π·Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈ Π³ΠΎΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ ΠΌΡΡΠ»ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΡΡΠ°ΠΌΠΏΡ. Π‘ΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π² ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ½Π΅Ρ-ΡΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΆΠ°Π΅Ρ ΠΌΠΎΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎ-Π½ΡΠ°Π²ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΡΠΉ ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½Ρ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΌΡΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ Π² ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ
ΠΈ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π΄ΠΆΠ΅ΡΠ°Ρ
. Π‘ΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π²ΡΠ΅Π³Π΄Π° Β«Π±ΡΡΡ ΠΎΠ½Π»Π°ΠΉΠ½Β», ΡΡΡΠ°Ρ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΡΡΡΠΈΡΡ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ΅ ΡΠΎΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΡΡ ΡΡΠΈΠ»ΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΡ ΡΡΠ΅Π²ΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Ρ, ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ΡΡ ΠΊ ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Ρ Π½Π΅Π³ΠΎ ΡΡΠΎΠΌΠ»ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈ ΡΠ°Π·Π΄ΡΠ°ΠΆΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΠΎΡΠ»Π°Π±Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π²Π½ΠΈΠΌΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈ Π²ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π²ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ»ΡΡΠΈΠΈ, ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π³ΠΈΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΠΈ.Π‘Π΄Π΅Π»Π°Π½ Π²ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ ΠΎ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ·ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ Π² ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ½Π΅Ρ-ΡΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅, ΠΏΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΡΠΊΡ ΠΎΠ½Π° Π²ΡΡΠ°Π±Π°ΡΡΠ²Π°Π΅Ρ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΡ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΡ, ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡ Π΅Π³ΠΎ Π·Π°Π΄Π°ΡΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π΄Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΡΠΎΡΡΠΊΠΎΠ² ΠΎ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΡ
, ΡΡΠ°Π½ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΡΡ Π² ΠΈΡ
ΡΠΎΠ·Π½Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΈΠ΄Π΅Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π· ΠΏΠΎΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΡΡΠΈΡ
Π²ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ°ΠΏΠΎΠ². ΠΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ. ΠΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ°Π»Ρ ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΡΡ Π½Π°ΠΉΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ Π² Π΄Π΅ΡΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠ΅Π΄Π°Π³ΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠ², ΠΏΠ΅Π΄Π°Π³ΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠ²-ΠΏΡΠΈΡ
ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΠΈΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΠΈΡΡΠΎΠ², Π·Π°Π½ΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΡΠΈΡ
ΡΡ Π²ΠΎΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π΄Π΅ΡΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΡΠΎΡΡΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ.
Ensemble simulations of the 12 July 2012 Coronal Mass Ejection with the Constant Turn Flux Rope Model
Flux-rope-based magnetohydrodynamic modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
is a promising tool for the prediction of the CME arrival time and magnetic
field at Earth. In this work, we introduce a constant-turn flux rope model and
use it to simulate the 12-July-2012 16:48 CME in the inner heliosphere. We
constrain the initial parameters of this CME using the graduated cylindrical
shell (GCS) model and the reconnected flux in post-eruption arcades. We
correctly reproduce all the magnetic field components of the CME at Earth, with
an arrival time error of approximately 1 hour. We further estimate the average
subjective uncertainties in the GCS fittings, by comparing the GCS parameters
of 56 CMEs reported in multiple studies and catalogs. We determined that the
GCS estimates of the CME latitude, longitude, tilt, and speed have average
uncertainties of 5.74 degrees, 11.23 degrees, 24.71 degrees, and 11.4%
respectively. Using these, we have created 77 ensemble members for the
12-July-2012 CME. We found that 55% of our ensemble members correctly reproduce
the sign of the magnetic field components at Earth. We also determined that the
uncertainties in GCS fitting can widen the CME arrival time prediction window
to about 12 hours for the 12-July-2012 CME. On investigating the forecast
accuracy introduced by the uncertainties in individual GCS parameters, we
conclude that the half-angle and aspect ratio have little impact on the
predicted magnetic field of the 12-July-2012 CME, whereas the uncertainties in
longitude and tilt can introduce a relatively large spread in the magnetic
field predicted at Earth
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