UK regional scale modelling of natural geohazards and climate change

For over 10 years, the British Geological Survey (BGS) has been investigating geotechnical and mineralogical factors controlling volume change behaviour of UK clay soils and mudrocks. A strong understanding of the relationship between these parameters and the clays' shrink-swell properties has been developed. More recently, partly resulting from concerns of users of this knowledge, a study of the relationships between climate change and shrink-swell behaviour over the last 30 years has been carried out. Information on subsidence insurance claims has been provided by the Association of British Insurers (ABI) and the UK Meteorological Office (UKMO) historical climate station data has also been utilised. This is being combined with the BGS's GeoSure national geohazard data, to build a preliminary GIS model to provide an understanding of the susceptibility of the Tertiary London Clay to climate change. This paper summarises the data analysis and identifies future work for model construction and refinement

Landslide hazard assessment and characterisation for forestry asset management in Great Britain

Between 2008 and 2010, the British Geological Survey (BGS) carried out 2 separate studiesto identify and quantify landslide hazards with the potential to affect third party assets (infrastructure, property and communities) in Scottish Forestry Commission managed land (with the Transport Research Laboratory) and in Wales. A desk-based investigation analysed a range of information, including: the BGS National Land-slide Database, National Digital Geological Mapping (DiGMap50), landslide potential maps (GeoSure & De-brisFlow) plus information from published literature. These resources were used to score key landslide char-acteristics and, where necessary, estimate the magnitude andextent of the hazard. This was achieved using a custom geographical information system (GIS) combined with an established algorithm to assess the suscep-tibility to landslide hazards and the likelihood of their impact on third party assets. For areas where ahigh landslide potential was identified, proformas were completed, recording detailed information on the geologi-cal and geomorphological conditions, known or recorded landslides and assets at risk with a score for land-slide hazard and likelihood. The outputs from this study are an attributed GIS with an accompanying inven-tory of detailed proformas. The study results are now contributing to the management & maintenance of For-estry Commission assets in Scotland and Wales