Global warming reshapes European pyroregions

Wildland fire is expected to increase in response to global warming, yet little is known about future changes to fire regimes in Europe. Here, we developed a pyrogeography based on statistical fire models to better understand how global warming reshapes fire regimes across the continent. We identified five large-scale pyroregions with different levels of area burned, fire frequency, intensity, length of fire period, size distribution, and seasonality. All other things being equal, global warming was found to alter the distribution of these pyroregions, with an expansion of the most fire prone pyroregions ranging respectively from 50% to 130% under 2° and 4°C global warming scenarios. Our estimates indicate a strong amplification of fire across parts of southern Europe and a subsequent shift toward new fire regimes, implying substantial socio-ecological impacts in the absence of mitigation or adaptation measures

MEASUREMENT OF THE REGRESSION RATE IN A HYBRID ROCKET MOTOR BY ACQUIRING THE HELMHOLTZ FREQUENCY IN THE COMBUSTION CHAMBER

Low thrust values obtained with a hybrid rocket motor (HRM) are a consequence of the difficulty in quickly mixing the fuel and oxidizer, which is characterized by a low regression rate of the fuel grain. Therefore, the measurement of this parameter is of great importance in studies that aim at solutions for this deficiency in HRM. Several studies calculate a reliable value of the average regression rate over time by measuring the total mass of fuel before and after each burn. A method to measure instantaneous regression rate is by acquiring the Helmholtz resonance frequency in the combustion chamber. This work uses a piezoelectric pressure transducer to obtain the Helmholtz frequency mode of the combustion chamber in a laboratory scale test bench with high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and gaseous oxygen, and is based on the principle that this frequency is inversely proportional to the square-root of the chamber volume. With the chamber volume variation, the port diameter of the grain variation is obtained. In conclusion, the calculated variation of port diameter agreed well with the correlation for average regression rate, determined from mass loss during operation

SurEau-Ecos v2.0: a trait-based plant hydraulics model for simulations of plant water status and drought-induced mortality at the ecosystem level

A widespread increase in tree mortality has been observed around the globe, and this trend is likely to continue because of ongoing climate-induced increases in drought frequency and intensity. This raises the need to identify regions and ecosystems that are likely to experience the most frequent and significant damage. We present SurEau-Ecos, a trait-based, plant hydraulic model designed to predict tree desiccation and mortality at scales from stand to region. SurEau-Ecos draws on the general principles of the SurEau model but introduces a simplified representation of plant architecture and alternative numerical schemes. Both additions were made to facilitate model parameterization and large-scale applications. In SurEau-Ecos, the water fluxes from the soil to the atmosphere are represented through two plant organs (a leaf and a stem, which includes the volume of the trunk, roots and branches) as the product of an interface conductance and the difference between water potentials. Each organ is described by its symplasmic and apoplasmic compartments. The dynamics of a plant's water status beyond the point of stomatal closure are explicitly represented via residual transpiration flow, plant cavitation and solicitation of plants' water reservoirs. In addition to the “explicit” numerical scheme of SurEau, we implemented a “semi-implicit” and “implicit” scheme. Both schemes led to a substantial gain in computing time compared to the explicit scheme (&gt;10 000 times), and the implicit scheme was the most accurate. We also observed similar plant water dynamics between SurEau-Ecos and SurEau but slight disparities in infra-daily variations of plant water potentials, which we attributed to the differences in the representation of plant architecture between models. A global model's sensitivity analysis revealed that factors controlling plant desiccation rates differ depending on whether leaf water potential is below or above the point of stomatal closure. Total available water for the plant, leaf area index and the leaf water potential at 50 % stomatal closure mostly drove the time needed to reach stomatal closure. Once stomata are closed, resistance to cavitation, residual cuticular transpiration and plant water stocks mostly determined the time to hydraulic failure. Finally, we illustrated the potential of SurEau-Ecos to simulate regional drought-induced mortality over France. SurEau-Ecos is a promising tool to perform regional-scale predictions of drought-induced hydraulic failure, determine the most vulnerable areas and ecosystems to drying conditions, and assess the dynamics of forest flammability.</p

Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects

Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine-scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e. living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine-scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process-based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future

Fuel bulk density and fuel moisture content effects on fire rate of spread A comparison between FIRETEC model predictions and experimental results in shrub fuels

Fuel bulk density and fuel moisture content effects on fire rate of spread were assessed in shrub fuels, comparing experimental data observed in outdoor wind tunnel burns and predictions from the physically-based model FIRETEC. Statistical models for the combined effects of bulk density and fuel moisture content were fitted to both the experimental and the simulated rate of spread values using non-linear regression techniques. Results confirmed a significant decreasing effect of bulk density on rate of spread in a power law in both laboratory burns and simulations. However, experimental data showed a lesser effect than simulations, suggesting a difference in the effective drag. Fuel moisture content effect was highly consistent, showing a similar exponential relationship with rate of spread in laboratory and in simulations. FIRETEC simulations showed similar orders of magnitude with predictions of two field-based empirical models, finding a significant correlation between rate of spread values. The study confirms the efficacy of the combined approach through experimental data and simulations to study fire behaviour. © The Author(s) 2012

Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie?

International audienceGlobal warming is expected to increase droughts and heatwaves, and consequently fire danger in southern Europe in the forthcoming decades. However, an assessment of the uncertainties associated with this general trend at regional scales, relevant to decision-making, is still missing. This study aims at assessing potential climate change impacts on fire danger over France through the projection of the widely used Fire Weather Index (FWI) and at quantifying the different sources of climate-driven uncertainty associated with these projections. We used daily climate experiments covering the 1995-2098 period under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) provided by the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Our results show an overall increase in FWI throughout the century, with the largest absolute increases in the Mediterranean area. Model uncertainty was very high in western France, previously identified as a potential fire-prone region under future climate. In contrast, large increases in FWI in the Mediterranean area showed low uncertainty across models. Besides, analyzing the natural variability of FWI revealed that extreme years under present-day climate could become much more frequent by the end of the century. The FWI is projected to emerge from the background of natural variability by mid-twenty-first century with a summer elevated fire danger three times more likely when summer temperature anomaly exceeds + 2 degrees C

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) time series for multiple sites and species in the French Mediterranean area since 1996

International audienceNo abstract availabl