Generating national projections of dementia cases for Ireland using a calibrated macro-simulation model.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological data on dementia is not available in many European countries and regions due to the high cost and complexity of conducting large scale dementia screening studies. The available epidemiological studies identify potentially substantial variation in the prevalence of dementia over time and across Europe. METHODS: In this paper we generate simulations of the number of dementia cases in Ireland from 1991 to 2036 using a three-state Markov illness-death model. Parameters values are selected for each simulation from a range using a random parameter search pattern. We employ a novel calibration method which exploits the strong relationship between dementia, ageing and mortality. Simulation weights are generated based on differences between observed and modelled cohorts of older people and the reported number of deaths from dementia. Irish Census data from 1991 to 2016 and the number of recorded deaths due to dementia in 2018 are used as calibration points. A weighted average projection of the number of dementia cases is generated. RESULTS: We estimate a weighted average number of cases of dementia in 2016 of 54 877 increasing to 98 946 in 2036; this estimate is substantially lower than the estimates generated using extrapolation methods. We show the wide range of possible outcomes given the range in the available parameter estimates and show that irrespective of whether the incidence rate of dementia is declining the number of cases of dementia is rapidly increasing due to population ageing. CONCLUSION: Previous studies have used parameter estimates from meta-analyses of the literature or from individual studies. In this paper we supplement these with a calibration approach using observed cause of death and population age structure data. These additional sources of data can be used to generate estimates of dementia prevalence in any country or region which has census data and data on deaths due to dementia

Resource allocation across the dementia continuum: a mixed methods study examining decision making on optimal dementia care among health and social care professionals

Background: The understanding of appropriate or optimal care is particularly important for dementia, characterised by multiple, long-term, changing needs and the increasing expectations of people using services. However, the response of health and social care services is limited by resource constraints in most countries. This study sought to determine the optimal level, mix and cost of services for different dementia case types across the dementia continuum, and to better understand the resource allocation decision making process among health and social care professionals (HSCPs). Methods: A balance of care framework was applied to the study questions and developed in three ways; firstly by considering optimality across the course of dementia and not just at the margin with residential care; secondly, through the introduction of a fixed budget to reveal constrained optimisation strategies; and thirdly through the use of a mixed methods design whereby qualitative data was collected at workshops using nominal group technique and analysed to obtain a more detailed understanding of the decision-making process. Twenty four HSCPs from a variety of disciplines participated in the resource allocation decision-making exercise. Results: HSCPs differentiated between case type severity; providing 2.6 times more resources to case types with higher level needs than those with lower level needs. When a resource constraint was introduced there was no evidence of any disproportionate rationing of services on the basis of need, i.e. more severe case types were not favoured over less severe case types. However, the fiscal constraint led to a much greater focus on meeting physical and clinical dependency needs through conventional social care provision. There was less emphasis on day care and psychosocial provision when resources were scarcer following the introduction of a fixed budget constraint. Conclusions: HSCPs completed complex resource allocation exercises for people with dementia, including expected differentiation across case type severity. When rationing was introduced, HSCPs did not discriminate in favour of case types with high levels of need. They did, however, support conventional home care provision over psychosocial care, although participants were still keen to provide some residual cover for the latter, especially for case types that might benefit

Resource allocation in dementia care: comparing the views of people with dementia, carers and health and social care professionals under constrained and unconstrained budget scenarios

Background: People with dementia and their carers have a wide range of health and social care needs. People with dementia, carers and health and social care professionals (HSCPs) all have different perspectives on dementia care. Differences among these groups are important for commissioners of services and for front-line HSCPs. Objective: To compare the service recommendations of people with dementia and carers with those of HSCPs, under different budgetary conditions. Methods: A mixed-methods approach, which builds on the Balance of Care method, was used. Nine workshops were held with 41 participants from three groups: people with dementia, carers and HSCPs. Participants were asked to make decisions on a set of services for case types of dementia under two scenarios: a no budget constraint (NBC) scenario and a budget constraint (BC) scenario. Results: While each group allocated resources in broadly similar overall proportions, important differences in emphasis emerged: (i) people with dementia and carers placed more emphasis on psychosocial supports than HSCPs; (ii) carers put more emphasis on respite opportunities for carers; and (iii) carers identified residential care as the most suitable setting for the person with dementia more frequently than health care professionals. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the importance of psychosocial interventions, including counselling and peer support programmes, are currently underestimated by HSCPs. The provision of in-home respite is highly valued by carers. Even with unconstrained resources, some carers do not judge home care to be a viable option for dementia case types with high-level care needs

Exploratory pilot study on resource allocation along the dementia continuum under constrained and unconstrained budget scenarios

BACKGROUND: People with dementia and their carers have a wide range of health and social care needs which vary along the dementia continuum. The government response to events and transitions at various stages of the continuum can have a substantial impact on the lived experience of dementia and to resource allocation decision-making. Hearing what practitioners have to say about need at various points of transition along the dementia continuum is very important, especially for the resource allocation process. METHODS: The paper uses an innovative longitudinal balance of care (BoC) methodology to identify the impact of changes along the dementia care continuum for care recipients and practitioners throughout the course of the condition. Participatory workshops were held with five Health and Social Care Professionals (HSCPs) to pilot a mixed methods approach to resource allocation decision-making along the dementia continuum. In these workshops, these practitioner participants were asked to generate a set of services and supports for a person with dementia with changing and evolving needs over a five year period under two budget scenarios: no budget constraint (NBC); and a budget constraint (BC). Participants were asked to recommend services for short, post event, transition periods and for longer steady state periods. RESULTS: Participants were able to allocate different packages of services and supports for different stages of dementia under different budgetary conditions. The total cost for the five year period under the NBC scenario is €200,000 on average, reducing to €133,000 under the BC scenario. Under the BC (NBC) scenarios, participants spent on average 85% (90%) of their budget on community services and 15% (10%) on nursing home services. CONCLUSION: The methodology used in this paper is a valuable complement to cross-sectional BoC studies through its identification of the importance of events, transitions and staging along the dementia care continuum. The desire of participants to keep people with dementia living in their own home is strong, even in the later stages of dementia, as evident by their recommendation to spend €400 per week more on home care provision compared to the alternative residential care, albeit in the absence of any budget constraints. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03089-1

Resource allocation decision-making in dementia care with and without budget constraints: a qualitative analysis

Introduction: Health systems in many different countries have increasingly been reorienting the delivery of dementia care to home and community care settings. This paper provides information on how health and social care professionals (HSCPs) in Ireland make decisions on resource allocation for people with dementia living at home and how resource constraints affect their decisions and choices.Methods: A balance of care approach was used to assess resource allocation across six dementia case types, from low to high needs. Workshops were held with 24 HSCPs from multiple disciplines. Participants allocated services in two scenarios: allocation with and without a budget constraint. Nominal group technique was used to structure discussions around resource allocation in both scenarios. Thematic analysis was applied to analyse the qualitative data using a general inductive approach.Results: The following themes influenced allocative deliberations: whose needs are being met; what needs are identified; decision making context; decision making process; and allocation outcomes. Participants were proficient in making decisions, using ‘decision rules’ or heuristics to help them make decisions under fixed budget rules and sticking to conventional provision when constraints were in place.Conclusions: Freedom from a budget constraint allowed HSCPs to consider a broader range of services and to take a more expansive view on what needs should be considered, with a particular emphasis on adopting a proactive, preventative approach to the allocation of resources. The effect of the budget constraint overall was to narrow all considerations, using heuristics to limit the type of needs addressed and the range of services and supports provided. The consequences were a largely reactive, less personalised system of care. The findings emphasise the need for an integrated and comprehensive assessment process that is more concerned with individualised responses rather than relying on existing models of care alone

Unemployment inflows and outflows in the UK: a micro economometric analysis

The unemployment rate is a function of both the inflows to unemployment and the outflows from unemployment. Understanding the unemployment rate requires an understanding of the flows that drive the rate. This thesis contributes to the literature by using micro economic data to look carefully at a selection of factors that affect the heterogeneity of flows into and out of unemployment. In particular, I examine (i) how balance sheet factors affect decisions to reduce employment and other operating costs following a revenue shock; (ii) how unionisation affects redundancies and other involuntary job endings with particular attention to the interaction between unionisation and tenure; and (iii) how local labour demand conditions affects the duration of individual unemployment spells. I find that (i) the state of a firms balance sheet is not related to how it cuts employment numbers and operating costs; (ii) unionised firms have lower redundancy rates for low tenure employees; and (iii) unemployment durations are not affected by a lack of local labour demand

A pilot study of the duration of GP consultations in Ireland

General practitioner (GP)-led primary care is the linchpin of health care in Ireland. Reflecting international trends, there are increasing concerns about the sustainability of the current Irish GP service due to an increasing workload. Objective data on the duration of GP consultations are currently not available in Ireland. The objective of this pilot study is to demonstrate how the duration of consultations can be collected, using readily available administrative data. Software was developed to extract the duration of GP consultations using the opening and closing of electronic patient records associated with a GP consultation. GP practices (N =¿3) comprising 15 GPs were recruited from a university-affiliated research network. A retrospective analysis of GP consultations with patients with diabetes for the 9 years between 2010 and 2018 was used to assess the feasibility of using this system to measure the duration of consultations. The average duration of a consultation was 14.1¿min for the 9 years spanning 2010 to 2018. Patients had an average time between consultations of 99¿days. This pilot study confirms that an administrative data set can be utilised at negligible cost to monitor GP practice consultation workload over time. Our preliminary pilot data show that GP consultation durations among participating practices were longer than the 5-11.7¿min reported in the UK and show an increase over the period. Clearly, a larger number of practices and patients are required to substantiate this finding.This study has been supported by funding HRB RL/2013/16 for the study’s conduct and publication costs

A comparison, for older people with diabetes, of health and health care utilisation in two different health systems on the island of Ireland

Background: There are social and economic differences between Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (ROI). There are also differences in the health care systems in the two jurisdictions. The aims of this study are to compare health (prevalence of diabetes and related complications) and health care utilisation (general practitioner, outpatient or accident and emergency utilisation) among older people with diabetes in the NI and ROI. Methods: Large scale comparable surveys of people over 50years of age in Northern Ireland (NICOLA, wave 1) and the Republic of Ireland (TILDA, wave 1) are used to compare people with diabetes (type I and type II) in the two jurisdictions. The combined data set comprises 1536 people with diabetes. A coarsened exact matching approach is used to compare health care utilisation among people with diabetes in NI and ROI with equivalent demographic, lifestyle and illness characteristics (age, gender, education, smoking status and self-related health, number of other chronic diseases and number of diabetic complications). Results: The overall prevalence of diabetes in the 50 to 84years old age group is 3.4 percentage points higher in NI (11.1% in NI, 7.7% ROI, p-value <0.01). The diabetic population in NI appear sicker – with more diabetic complications and more chronic illnesses. Comparing people with diabetes in the two jurisdictions with similar levels of illness we find that there are no statistically significant differences in GP, outpatient or A&E utilisation. Conclusion: Despite the proximity of NI and ROI there are substantial differences in the prevalence of diabetes and its related complications. Despite differences in the health services in the two jurisdictions the differences in health care utilisation for an equivalent cohort are small

A pilot study of the duration of GP consultations in Ireland

Background: General practitioner (GP)-led primary care is the linchpin of health care in Ireland. Reflecting international trends, there are increasing concerns about the sustainability of the current Irish GP service due to an increasing workload. Objective data on the duration of GP consultations are currently not available in Ireland. The objective of this pilot study is to demonstrate how the duration of consultations can be collected, using readily available administrative data. Methods: Software was developed to extract the duration of GP consultations using the opening and closing of electronic patient records associated with a GP consultation. GP practices (N = 3) comprising 15 GPs were recruited from a university-affiliated research network. A retrospective analysis of GP consultations with patients with diabetes for the 9 years between 2010 and 2018 was used to assess the feasibility of using this system to measure the duration of consultations. Results: The average duration of a consultation was 14.1 min for the 9 years spanning 2010 to 2018. Patients had an average time between consultations of 99 days. Conclusions: This pilot study confirms that an administrative data set can be utilised at negligible cost to monitor GP practice consultation workload over time. Our preliminary pilot data show that GP consultation durations among participating practices were longer than the 5–11.7 min reported in the UK and show an increase over the period. Clearly, a larger number of practices and patients are required to substantiate this finding