The role of urban boundary layer investigated with high-resolution models and ground-based observations in Rome area: a step towards understanding parameterization potentialities

Abstract. The urban forcing on thermodynamical conditions can greatly influence the local evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer. Heat stored in an urban environment can produce noteworthy mesoscale perturbations of the lower atmosphere. The new generation of high-resolution numerical weather prediction models (NWP) is nowadays often applied also to urban areas. An accurate representation of cities is key role because of the cities' influence on wind, temperature and water vapor content of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting model WRF (ARW) has been used to reproduce the circulation in the urban area of Rome. A sensitivity study is performed using different PBL and surface schemes. The significant role of the surface forcing in the PBL evolution has been investigated by comparing model results with observations coming from many instruments (lidar, sodar, sonic anemometer and surface stations). The impact of different urban canopy models (UCMs) on the forecast has also been investigated. One meteorological event will be presented, chosen as statistically relevant for the area of interest. The WRF-ARW model shows a tendency to overestimate the vertical transport of horizontal momentum from upper levels to low atmosphere if strong large-scale forcing occurs. This overestimation is partially corrected by a local PBL scheme coupled with an advanced UCM. Moreover, a general underestimation of vertical motions has been verified

Water vapour distribution at urban scale using high-resolution numerical weather model and spaceborne SAR interferometric data

Abstract. The local distribution of water vapour in the urban area of Rome has been studied using both a high resolution mesoscale model (MM5) and Earth Remote Sensing-1 (ERS-1) satellite radar data. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques, after the removal of all other geometric effects, estimate excess path length variation between two different SAR acquisitions (Atmospheric Phase Screen: APS). APS are strictly related to the variations of the water vapour content along the radar line of sight. To the aim of assessing the MM5 ability to reproduce the gross features of the Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) spatial distribution, as a first step ECMWF IWV has been used as benchmark against which the high resolution MM5 model and InSAR APS maps have been compared. As a following step, the high resolution IWV MM5 maps have been compared with both InSAR and surface meteorological data. The results show that the high resolution IWV model maps compare well with the InSAR ones. Support to this finding is obtained by semivariogram analysis that clearly shows good agreement beside from a model bias

Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results

Abstract. The Special Observation Period (SOP1), part of the HyMeX campaign (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiments, 5 September–6 November 2012), was dedicated to heavy precipitation events and flash floods in the western Mediterranean, and three Italian hydro-meteorological monitoring sites were identified: Liguria–Tuscany, northeastern Italy and central Italy. The extraordinary deployment of advanced instrumentation, including instrumented aircrafts, and the use of several different operational weather forecast models, including hydrological models and marine models, allowed an unprecedented monitoring and analysis of high-impact weather events around the Italian hydro-meteorological sites. This activity has seen strong collaboration between the Italian scientific and operational communities. In this paper an overview of the Italian organization during SOP1 is provided, and selected Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) are described. A significant event for each Italian target area is chosen for this analysis: IOP2 (12–13 September 2012) in northeastern Italy, IOP13 (15–16 October 2012) in central Italy and IOP19 (3–5 November 2012) in Liguria and Tuscany. For each IOP the meteorological characteristics, together with special observations and weather forecasts, are analyzed with the aim of highlighting strengths and weaknesses of the forecast modeling systems, including the hydrological impacts. The usefulness of having different weather forecast operational chains characterized by different numerical weather prediction models and/or different model set up or initial conditions is finally shown for one of the events (IOP19)

Investigating the representation of heatwaves from an ensemble of km-scale regional climate simulations within CORDEX-FPS convection

Heatwaves (HWs) are high-impact phenomena stressing both societies and ecosystems. Their intensity and frequency are expected to increase in a warmer climate over many regions of the world. While these impacts can be wide-ranging, they are potentially influenced by local to regional features such as topography, land cover, and urbanization. Here, we leverage recent advances in the very high-resolution modelling required to elucidate the impacts of heatwaves at these fine scales. Further, we aim to understand how the new generation of km-scale regional climate models (RCMs) modulates the representation of heatwaves over a well-known climate change hot spot. We analyze an ensemble of 15 convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM, ~ 2–4 km grid spacing) simulations and their driving, convection-parameterized regional climate model (RCM, ~ 12–15 km grid spacing) simulations from the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Convection. The focus is on the evaluation experiments (2000–2009) and three subdomains with a range of climatic characteristics. During HWs, and generally in the summer season, CPRCMs exhibit warmer and drier conditions than their driving RCMs. Higher maximum temperatures arise due to an altered heat flux partitioning, with daily peaks up to ~ 150 W/m$^{2}$ larger latent heat in RCMs compared to the CPRCMs. This is driven by a 5–25% lower soil moisture content in the CPRCMs, which is in turn related to longer dry spell length (up to double). It is challenging to ascertain whether these differences represent an improvement. However, a point-scale distribution-based maximum temperature evaluation, suggests that this CPRCMs warmer/drier tendency is likely more realistic compared to the RCMs, with ~ 70% of reference sites indicating an added value compared to the driving RCMs, increasing to 95% when only the distribution right tail is considered. Conversely, a CPRCMs slight detrimental effect is found according to the upscaled grid-to-grid approach over flat areas. Certainly, CPRCMs enhance dry conditions, with knock-on implications for summer season temperature overestimation. Whether this improved physical representation of HWs also has implications for future changes is under investigation

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution. Part I: Evaluation of precipitation

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼ 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40 at 12 km to ∼ −3 at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales. © 2021, The Author(s)

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40% at 12 km to ∼ −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales

THE MM5 NUMERICAL MODEL TO CORRECT PSINSAR ATMOSPHERIC PHASE SCREEN

ABSTRACT In this work we make an experimental analysis to research the capability of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as MM5 to produce high resolution (1km-500m) maps of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) in the atmosphere to mitigate the well-known disturbances that affect the radar signal while travelling from the sensor to the ground and back. Experiments have been conducted over the area surrounding Rome using ERS data acquired during the three days phase in '94 and using Envisat data acquired in recent years. By means of the PS technique SAR data have been processed and the Atmospheric Phase Screen (APS) of Slave images with respect to a reference Master have been extracted. MM5 IWV maps have a much lower resolution than PSInSAR APS's: the turbulent term of the atmospheric vapour field cannot be well resolved by MM5, at least with the low resolution ECMWF inputs. However, the vapour distribution term that depends on the local topography has been found quite in accordance

Mitigation of atmospheric Water-Vapour effects on spaceborne interferometric SAR imaging through the MM5 Numerical model

Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) imaging is a well established technique to derive useful products for several land applications. One of the major limitations of InSAR is due to atmospheric e® ects, and in particular to high water vapor variability. In this work, we make an experimental analysis to research the capability of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as MM5 to produce high resolution (1 km{500 m) maps of Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) in the atmosphere to mitigate the well-known disturbances that a® ect the radar signal while traveling from the sensor to the ground and back. Experiments have been conducted over the area surrounding Rome using ERS data acquired during the three days phase in '94 and using Envisat data acquired in recent years. By means of the PS technique SAR data have been processed and the Atmospheric Phase Screen (APS) of Slave images with respect to a reference Master have been extracted. MM5 provides realistic water vapor distribution elds that can be converted into electromagnetic slant delays. PSInSAR APS's have then been compared to MM5 IWV maps revealing interesting results. MM5 IWV maps have a much lower resolution than PSInSAR APS's: the turbulent term of the atmospheric vapor field cannot be well resolved by MM5, at least with the low resolution ECMWF inputs. However, the vapor distribution term that depends on the local topography has been found quite in accordance. In this work, we will present experimental results as well as discussions over the adopted processing strategy