Strategic Default, Debt Structure, and Stock Returns

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates how debt structure and strategic interaction among shareholders and debt holders in the event of default affect expected stock returns. The model predicts that expected stock returns are higher for firms that face high debt renegotiation difficulties and that have a large fraction of secured or convertible debt. Using a large sample of publicly traded U.S. firms for the period 1985–2012, the paper presents new evidence on the link between debt structure and stock returns that is supportive of the model’s predictions

How Does Corporate Investment Respond to Increased Entry Threat?

We study how product-market interactions affect investment. We use reductions of import tariffs to examine how incumbents modify investment when the threat of rivals’ entry intensifies. Incumbents reduce investment by 7.2% in response to higher entry threat. Consistent with a strategic behavior, the investment reduction varies across market structures: it concentrates in markets in which competitive actions are strategic substitutes, where deterring entry is costly and investment makes incumbents look soft. Our results provide novel evidence on how and why firms’ interactions influence corporate investment

Debt Enforcement, Investment, and Risk Taking Across Countries

We argue that the prospect of an imperfect enforcement of debt contracts in default reduces shareholder-debtholder conflicts and induces leveraged firms to invest more and take on less risk as they approach financial distress. To test these predictions, we use a large panel of firms in 41 countries with heterogeneous debt enforcement characteristics. Consistent with our model, we find that the relation between debt enforcement and firms’ investment and risk depends on the firm-specific probability of default. A differences-in-differences analysis of firms’ investment and risk taking in response to bankruptcy reforms that make debt more renegotiable confirms the cross-country evidence

Corporate Finance, Asset Returns, and Credit Risk

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter empirically investigates how the intensity of product market competition affects the cost of debt. Using a large sample of loans to publicly traded US manufacturing firms, the chapter provides evidence that an intensification of product market competition among firms significantly increases the cost of bank loans. The analysis reveals that the effect is strongest in industries with high illiquidity and specificity of assets. This finding indicates that the liquidation value of assets is an important channel through which competition affects the cost of debt. Moreover, loans to firms that operate in more competitive industries contain more covenants restricting the firms' financing and dividend policies. Overall, the results suggest that banks explicitly take into account the risk arising from product market competition when pricing and designing debt contracts. The second chapter tests whether equity risk reflects the shareholders' incentives to default strategically on the firm's debt obligations. The chapter develops a model that relates shareholders' incentives to default strategically with the likelihood that debt renegotiations fail. Using an international cross-section of stocks to exploit the exogenous variation of insolvency procedures across countries and to test the model's predictions, the analysis reveals that the equity beta increases with the degree of creditor protection. Moreover, the equity beta decreases with the costs of liquidation and shareholders' bargaining power, and the sensitivity of this relationship weakens as country's creditor protection toughens. The results are economically important, and robust to various specifications and estimation techniques. The third chapter investigates how the debt structure and the strategic interaction between shareholders and creditors in the event of default affect expected stock returns. By endogenizing shareholders' decision to default, the model generates new predictions linking firm characteristics to expected stock returns through an intuitive economic mechanism. In particular, the model predicts that expected stock returns are higher for firms that face high debt renegotiation difficulties, and that have a large fraction of secured or convertible debt. Expected stock returns are lower for firms whose shareholders maintain strong bargaining power, and for firms subject to high liquidation costs. Using a large sample of publicly traded US firms between 1985 and 2005, the third chapter presents new evidence on the link between debt structure, renegotiation frictions, and stock returns, which is supportive of the model's predictions

Strategic Default, Debt Structure, and Stock Returns

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates how the debt structure and the strategic interaction between shareholders and debt holders in the event of default affect expected stock returns. The model predicts that expected stock returns are higher for firms that face high debt renegotiation difficulties and that have a large fraction of secured or convertible debt. Using a large sample of publicly traded US firms between 1985 and 2012, the paper presents new evidence on the link between debt structure and stock returns that is supportive of the model's predictions

Competition and the cost of debt

International audienceThis paper empirically shows that the cost of bank debt is systematically higher for firms that operate in competitive product markets. Using various proxies for product market competition, and reductions of import tariff rates to capture exogenous changes to a firm's competitive environment, I find that competition has a significantly positive effect on the cost of bank debt. Moreover, the analysis reveals that the effect of competition is greater in industries in which small firms face financially strong rivals, in industries with intense strategic interactions between firms, and in illiquid industries. Overall, these findings suggest that banks price financial contracts by taking into account the risk that arises from product market competition

Debt in Political Campaigns

Debt is a significant source of funding of political campaigns, with almost half of all campaigns relying on some form of debt. We analyze the incentives created by this type of debt financing. We show that indebted politicians raise more funds in subsequent elections, especially from special interest groups. Consistent with votes-for-money arrangements, indebted politicians vote for the benefit of those interest groups that help funding their reelection campaigns. The findings support the hypothesis that debt creates distortions, as it forces indebted politicians to take policy positions that are not aligned with the local constituents’ interests

Self-funding of Political Campaigns

Candidate self-funding, in particular self-loans, is a significant source of funding of political campaigns. Self-funding clusters among non-incumbent campaigns, Republican campaigns and more expensive campaigns. Self-funded campaigns raise less money from individuals and special interests and also spend less. Self-funders are wealthier on average and run in more competitive elections. The analysis of self-funders’ legislative decisions shows that self-funders’ votes, especially those of Republicans, are significantly more sensitive to contributions from special interests that are affected by the votes. The results highlight the importance of considering politicians’ self-funding choices in analyzing voting behavior and the value of political activism