Can the Law of One Price be tested?

A simple stylised model, that incorporates transaction costs, is developed. The Law of One Price (LOP) is assumed to hold with regard to a reference market that is not taken into account in the empirical testing of the Law. It is shown that under these assumptions the empirical tests of the LOP will fail.Law of one price; purchasing power parity; transaction costs

On the nature of Bulgarian subsistence agriculture

In most countries of Central and Eastern Europe the process of transition to market economy resulted in an increasingly subsistence type of agriculture. The extent of subsistence farming varies from one country to another, but the phenomenon is universally present. The very existence, yet expansion of subsistence agriculture has been perceived as a paradox. It is sufficient to remind that it simply does not fit the definition of transition, which is viewed as a process that has to bring about the market into economy, the same market that went missing in agriculture. The latter would incline one to consider subsistence agriculture as a temporary phenomenon that will perish as transition advances. The basic textbook economic theory views subsistence agriculture as implicitly irrational and contradicting the sound economic logic and principles. This is also the prevailing opinion on the nature of subsistence agriculture in transition economies, as well as in general. This paper challenges this viewpoint and argues that subsistence agriculture is not only logical consequence from the worsened economic conditions at individual level, but it contributes to the overall market stability. Developing the argument with regard to Bulgaria, which is a country with a large share of subsistence agriculture, as an illustration, it dismisses the claims that subsistence causes waste of production resources and loss of overall welfare. Conversely, it is demonstrates that subsistence agriculture increases both production and consumption.

Estimating the probability of large negative stock market

Correct assessment of the risks associated with likely economic outcomes is vital for effective decision making. The objective of investment in the stock market is to obtain positive market returns. The risk, however, is the danger of suffering large negative market returns. A variety of parametric models can be used in assessing this type of risk. A major disadvantage of these techniques is that they require a specific assumption to be made about the nature of the statistical distribution. Projections based on this method are conditional on the validity of this underlying assumption, which itself is not testable. An alternative approach is to use a non-parametric methodology, based on the statistical extreme value theory, which provides a means for evaluating the unconditional distribution (or at least the tails of this distribution) beyond the historically observed values. The methodology involves the calculation of the tail index, which is used to estimate the relevant exceedence probabilities (for different critical levels of loss) for a selection of food industry companies. Information about these downside risks is critically important for investment decision making. In addition, the tail index estimates permit examination of the stable Paretian hypothesis.

Institutional foundations of subsistence agriculture in transition economies

The paper considers the problem of subsistence and semi-subsistence farming in Central and Easter Europe. The latter is analysed in terms of the institutional characteristics of the transition process. The concepts of institutions and institutional change are clarified and subsistence agriculture is derived as a natural consequence from the process of economic transition. The process of shortening which gives rise to subsistence agriculture is described. It is demonstrated to have economy-wide effects, and in the domain of agriculture these effects lead the emergence of subsistence behavioural patterns. The policy implications of the proposed view of subsistence agriculture are briefly reviewed and some policy recommendations derived.

Risk Management – Managing Risks, not Calculating Them

The expected utility approach to decision making advocates a probability vision of the world and labels any deviation from it ‘irrational’. This paper reconsiders the rationality argument and argues that calculating risks is not a viable strategy in an uncertain world. Alternative strategies not only can save considerable cognitive and computational resources, but are more ‘rational’ with view to the restricted definition of rationality applied by expected utility theorists. The alternative decision making model of risk management is presented and explained.

Decision making pattern of subsistence farmers in Bulgaria

Economic research by and large is dominated by a ‘rationality’ paradigm. Economic decision making within this paradigm is viewed as a maximising procedure. In general the latter represents the decision-making as a choice amongst a well defined set of alternatives. In this paper we question this and analyse the options of the small-scale subsistence farmers in Bulgaria in the way they see them. By applying mental accounting methodology we deduce some significant characteristics of Bulgarian subsistence agriculture.

Subsistence Agriculture in Transition Economies: its Roles and Determinants

In line with recent suggestions about the potential positive effects of subsistence agriculture in fragile economies, this paper discusses and explains the effects of subsistence agriculture with emphasis on transition countries. Some micro-economic models of subsistence agriculture are reviewed and a two-stage decision model, combining risk aversion and transaction costs explanations for subsistence is put forward. The role of subsistence agriculture is addressed in terms of a static comparison to a commercial only agriculture. It is shown that, under some conditions, subsistence can play a stabilising role and have positive impacts on total agriculture. Employing the concept of a subsistence level of consumption, the paper demonstrates that these static effects can be valid in a dynamic perspective, provided additional conditions are met. Policy recommendations and a future research agenda with regard to possible agricultural commercialisation are drawn from the analysis.

Using Mixtures-of-Distributions models to inform farm size selection decisions in representative farm modelling.

The selection of ‘representative’ farms in farm level modelling where results are aggregated to the sector level is critically important if the effects of aggregation bias are to be reduced. The process of selecting representative farms normally involves the use of cluster analysis where the decision regarding the appropriate number of clusters (or representative farm types) is largely subjective. However, when the technique of fitting mixtures of distributions is employed as a clustering technique there is an objective test of the appropriate number of clusters. This paper demonstrates the MDM approach to cluster analysis by classifying dairy farms in Northern Ireland, based on the number of cows in each farm. The results indicate that four representative farms are needed, with a view to minimising aggregation bias, to describe the dairy sector in Northern Ireland.Mixtures of distributions, cluster analysis, representative farms