Cost-effectiveness and Benefit-to-Harm Ratio of Risk-Stratified Screening for Breast Cancer: A Life-Table Model.

IMPORTANCE: The age-based or "one-size-fits-all" breast screening approach does not take into account the individual variation in risk. Mammography screening reduces death from breast cancer at the cost of overdiagnosis. Identifying risk-stratified screening strategies with a more favorable ratio of overdiagnoses to breast cancer deaths prevented would improve the quality of life of women and save resources. OBJECTIVE: To assess the benefit-to-harm ratio and the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified breast screening programs compared with a standard age-based screening program and no screening. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: A life-table model was created of a hypothetical cohort of 364 500 women in the United Kingdom, aged 50 years, with follow-up to age 85 years, using (1) findings of the Independent UK Panel on Breast Cancer Screening and (2) risk distribution based on polygenic risk profile. The analysis was undertaken from the National Health Service perspective. INTERVENTIONS: The modeled interventions were (1) no screening, (2) age-based screening (mammography screening every 3 years from age 50 to 69 years), and (3) risk-stratified screening (a proportion of women aged 50 years with a risk score greater than a threshold risk were offered screening every 3 years until age 69 years) considering each percentile of the risk distribution. All analyses took place between July 2016 and September 2017. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Overdiagnoses, breast cancer deaths averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, costs in British pounds, and net monetary benefit (NMB). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess uncertainty around parameter estimates. Future costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per year. RESULTS: The risk-stratified analysis of this life-table model included a hypothetical cohort of 364 500 women followed up from age 50 to 85 years. As the risk threshold was lowered, the incremental cost of the program increased linearly, compared with no screening, with no additional QALYs gained below 35th percentile risk threshold. Of the 3 screening scenarios, the risk-stratified scenario with risk threshold at the 70th percentile had the highest NMB, at a willingness to pay of £20 000 (US $26 800) per QALY gained, with a 72$26 888) vs £537 985 (US $720 900) less, would have 26.7% vs 71.4% fewer overdiagnoses, and would avert 2.9% vs 9.6% fewer breast cancer deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Not offering breast cancer screening to women at lower risk could improve the cost-effectiveness of the screening program, reduce overdiagnosis, and maintain the benefits of screening

Meta-analysis confirms BCL2 is an independent prognostic marker in breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: A number of protein markers have been investigated as prognostic adjuncts in breast cancer but their translation into clinical practice has been impeded by a lack of appropriate validation. Recently, we showed that BCL2 protein expression had prognostic power independent of current used standards. Here, we present the results of a meta-analysis of the association between BCL2 expression and both disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in female breast cancer. METHODS: Reports published in 1994-2006 were selected for the meta-analysis using a search of PubMed. Studies that investigated the role of BCL2 expression by immunohistochemistry with a sample size greater than 100 were included. Seventeen papers reported the results of 18 different series including 5,892 cases with an average median follow-up of 92.1 months. RESULTS: Eight studies investigated DFS unadjusted for other variables in 2,285 cases. The relative hazard estimates ranged from 0.85 - 3.03 with a combined random effects estimate of 1.66 (95%CI 1.25 - 2.22). The effect of BCL2 on DFS adjusted for other prognostic factors was reported in 11 studies and the pooled random effects hazard ratio estimate was 1.58 (95%CI 1.29-1.94). OS was investigated unadjusted for other variables in eight studies incorporating 3,910 cases. The hazard estimates ranged from 0.99-4.31 with a pooled estimate of risk of 1.64 (95%CI 1.36-2.0). OS adjusted for other parameters was evaluated in nine series comprising 3,624 cases and the estimates for these studies ranged from 1.10 to 2.49 with a pooled estimate of 1.37 (95%CI 1.19-1.58). CONCLUSION: The meta-analysis strongly supports the prognostic role of BCL2 as assessed by immunohistochemistry in breast cancer and shows that this effect is independent of lymph node status, tumour size and tumour grade as well as a range of other biological variables on multi-variate analysis. Large prospective studies are now needed to establish the clinical utility of BCL2 as an independent prognostic marker

The effect of rare variants on inflation of the test statistics in case-control analyses.

BACKGROUND: The detection of bias due to cryptic population structure is an important step in the evaluation of findings of genetic association studies. The standard method of measuring this bias in a genetic association study is to compare the observed median association test statistic to the expected median test statistic. This ratio is inflated in the presence of cryptic population structure. However, inflation may also be caused by the properties of the association test itself particularly in the analysis of rare variants. We compared the properties of the three most commonly used association tests: the likelihood ratio test, the Wald test and the score test when testing rare variants for association using simulated data. RESULTS: We found evidence of inflation in the median test statistics of the likelihood ratio and score tests for tests of variants with less than 20 heterozygotes across the sample, regardless of the total sample size. The test statistics for the Wald test were under-inflated at the median for variants below the same minor allele frequency. CONCLUSIONS: In a genetic association study, if a substantial proportion of the genetic variants tested have rare minor allele frequencies, the properties of the association test may mask the presence or absence of bias due to population structure. The use of either the likelihood ratio test or the score test is likely to lead to inflation in the median test statistic in the absence of population structure. In contrast, the use of the Wald test is likely to result in under-inflation of the median test statistic which may mask the presence of population structure.This work was supported by a grant from Cancer Research UK (C490/A16561). AP is funded by a Medical Research Council studentship.This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://dx.doi.org/10.1186%2Fs12859-015-0496-1

The admixture maximum likelihood test to test for association between rare variants and disease phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: The development of genotyping arrays containing hundreds of thousands of rare variants across the genome and advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies have made feasible empirical genetic association studies to search for rare disease susceptibility alleles. As single variant testing is underpowered to detect associations, the development of statistical methods to combine analysis across variants - so-called "burden tests" - is an area of active research interest. We previously developed a method, the admixture maximum likelihood test, to test multiple, common variants for association with a trait of interest. We have extended this method, called the rare admixture maximum likelihood test (RAML), for the analysis of rare variants. In this paper we compare the performance of RAML with six other burden tests designed to test for association of rare variants. RESULTS: We used simulation testing over a range of scenarios to test the power of RAML compared to the other rare variant association testing methods. These scenarios modelled differences in effect variability, the average direction of effect and the proportion of associated variants. We evaluated the power for all the different scenarios. RAML tended to have the greatest power for most scenarios where the proportion of associated variants was small, whereas SKAT-O performed a little better for the scenarios with a higher proportion of associated variants. CONCLUSIONS: The RAML method makes no assumptions about the proportion of variants that are associated with the phenotype of interest or the magnitude and direction of their effect. The method is flexible and can be applied to both dichotomous and quantitative traits and allows for the inclusion of covariates in the underlying regression model. The RAML method performed well compared to the other methods over a wide range of scenarios. Generally power was moderate in most of the scenarios, underlying the need for large sample sizes in any form of association testing.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Development and External Validation of Prediction Models for 10-Year Survival of Invasive Breast Cancer. Comparison with PREDICT and CancerMath.

Purpose: To compare PREDICT and CancerMath, two widely used prognostic models for invasive breast cancer, taking into account their clinical utility. Furthermore, it is unclear whether these models could be improved.Experimental Design: A dataset of 5,729 women was used for model development. A Bayesian variable selection algorithm was implemented to stochastically search for important interaction terms among the predictors. The derived models were then compared in three independent datasets (n = 5,534). We examined calibration, discrimination, and performed decision curve analysis.Results: CancerMath demonstrated worse calibration performance compared with PREDICT in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and ER-negative tumors. The decline in discrimination performance was -4.27% (-6.39 to -2.03) and -3.21% (-5.9 to -0.48) for ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, respectively. Our new models matched the performance of PREDICT in terms of calibration and discrimination, but offered no improvement. Decision curve analysis showed predictions for all models were clinically useful for treatment decisions made at risk thresholds between 5% and 55% for ER-positive tumors and at thresholds of 15% to 60% for ER-negative tumors. Within these threshold ranges, CancerMath provided the lowest clinical utility among all the models.Conclusions: Survival probabilities from PREDICT offer both improved accuracy and discrimination over CancerMath. Using PREDICT to make treatment decisions offers greater clinical utility than CancerMath over a range of risk thresholds. Our new models performed as well as PREDICT, but no better, suggesting that, in this setting, including further interaction terms offers no predictive benefit. Clin Cancer Res; 24(9); 2110-5. ©2018 AACR

Rare Germline Genetic Variants and the Risks of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer.

A family history of ovarian or breast cancer is the strongest risk factor for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Germline deleterious variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes confer EOC risks by age 80, of 44% and 17% respectively. The mismatch repair genes, particularly MSH2 and MSH6, are also EOC susceptibility genes. Several other DNA repair genes, BRIP1, RAD51C, RAD51D, and PALB2, have been identified as moderate risk EOC genes. EOC has five main histotypes; high-grade serous (HGS), low-grade serous (LGS), clear cell (CCC), endometrioid (END), and mucinous (MUC). This review examines the current understanding of the contribution of rare genetic variants to EOC, focussing on providing frequency data for each histotype. We provide an overview of frequency and risk for pathogenic variants in the known susceptibility genes as well as other proposed genes. We also describe the progress to-date to understand the role of missense variants and the different breast and ovarian cancer risks for each gene. Identification of susceptibility genes have clinical impact by reducing disease-associated mortality through improving risk prediction, with the possibility of prevention strategies, and developing new targeted treatments and these clinical implications are also discussed

Decline in Antigenicity of Tumor Markers by Storage Time Using Pathology Sections Cut From Tissue Microarrays.

Sectioning a whole tissue microarrray (TMA block) and storing the sections maximizes the number of sections obtained, but may impair the antigenicity of the stored sections. We have investigated the impact of TMA section storage on antigenicity. First, we reexamined existing TMA data to determine whether antigenicity in stored sections changes over time. Component scores for each marker, based on cellular compartment of staining and score-type, were evaluated separately. Residual components scores adjusted for grade, tumor size, and node positivity, were regressed on the number of days storage to evaluate the effect of storage time. Storage time ranged from 2 to 1897 days, and the mean change in antigenicity per year ranged from -0.88 (95% confidence interval, -1.11 to -0.65) to 0.035 (95% confidence interval, 0.016-0.054). Further analysis showed no significant improvement in the fit of survival models if storage time adjusted scores were included in the models rather than unadjusted scores. We then compared 3 ways of processing TMA sections after cutting-immediate staining, staining after 1 year, and staining after 1 year coated in wax-on the immunohistochemistry results for: progesterone receptor, a routinely used, robust antibody, and MKI67, which is generally considered less robust. The progesterone receptor scores for stored sections were similar to those for unstored sections, whereas the MKI67 scores for stored sections were substantially different to those for unstored sections. Wax coating made little difference to the results. Biomarker antigenicity shows a small decline over time that is unlikely to have an important effect on studies of prognostic biomarkers.We acknowledge the SEARCH team, the National Cancer Registration Service Eastern Office and Information Centre, the Histopathology Core Facility at the CRUK Cambridge Research Institute for immunohistochemical staining and digital image acquisition and the Human Research Tissue Bank, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. This work was funded through a programme grant from Cancer Research UK (C490/A10119, C490/A10124 and C490/A16561) and funding from the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre.This is the final version of the article. It was first published by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins at http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/PAI.000000000000017

PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall and breast cancer specific survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK. METHODS: Using the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5,694 women who had surgery for invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999 to 2003. Breast cancer mortality models for oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and ER negative tumours were derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for prognostic factors and mode of cancer detection (symptomatic versus screen-detected). An external dataset of 5,468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) was used for validation. RESULTS: Differences in overall actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (18.9% vs. 19.0%) and WMCIU (17.5% vs. 18.3%) with area under receiver-operator-characteristic curves (AUC) of 0.81 and 0.79 respectively. Differences in breast cancer specific actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (12.9% vs. 13.5%) and <1.5% at eight years for WMCIU (12.2% vs. 13.6%) with AUC of 0.84 and 0.82 respectively. Model calibration was good for both ER positive and negative models although the ER positive model provided better discrimination (AUC 0.82) than ER negative (AUC 0.75). CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a prognostication model for early breast cancer based on UK cancer registry data that predicts breast cancer survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer and includes mode of detection for the first time. The model is well calibrated, provides a high degree of discrimination and has been validated in a second UK patient cohort.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Association between tumour infiltrating lymphocytes, histotype and clinical outcome in epithelial ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that some ovarian tumours evoke an immune response, which can be assessed by tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs). To facilitate adoption of TILs as a clinical biomarker, a standardised method for their H&E visual evaluation has been validated in breast cancer. METHODS: We sought to investigate the prognostic significance of TILs in a study of 953 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer tumour samples, both primary and metastatic, from 707 patients from the prospective population-based SEARCH study. TILs were analysed using a standardised method based on H&E staining producing a percentage score for stromal and intratumoral compartments. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios of the association between TILs and survival. RESULTS: The extent of stromal and intra-tumoral TILs were correlated in the primary tumours (n = 679, Spearman's rank correlation = 0.60, P < 0.001) with a similar correlation in secondary tumours (n = 224, Spearman's rank correlation = 0.62, P < 0.001). There was a weak correlation between stromal TIL levels in primary and secondary tumour samples (Spearman's rank correlation = 0.29, P < 0.001) and intra-tumoral TIL levels in primary and secondary tumour samples (Spearman's rank correlation = 0.19, P = 0.0094). The extent of stromal TILs differed between histotypes (Pearson chi2 (12d.f.) 54.1, P < 0.0001) with higher levels of stromal infiltration in the high-grade serous and endometriod cases. A significant association was observed for higher intratumoral TIL levels and a favourable prognosis (HR 0.74 95% CI 0.55-1.00 p = 0.047). CONCLUSION: This study is the largest collection of epithelial ovarian tumour samples evaluated for TILs. We have shown that stromal and intratumoral TIL levels are correlated and that their levels correlate with clinical variables such as tumour histological subtype. We have also shown that increased levels of both intratumoral and stromal TILs are associated with a better prognosis; however, this is only statistically significant for intratumoral TILs. This study suggests that a clinically useful immune prognostic indicator in epithelial ovarian cancer could be developed using this technique