Climate scenarios for coastal flood vulnerability assessments: a case study for the Ligurian coastal region

Extreme sea levels and coastal flooding are projected to be among the most uncertain and severe consequences of climate change. In response, a wide development of coastal vulnerability assessment methodologies has been observed in research to support societal resilience to future coastal flood risks. This work aims to explore the scope of application of index-based methodologies for coastal vulnerability assessment, in terms of their suitability to convey information on variations in climate variables potentially leading to sea-level changes and inundation. For this purpose, the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model was coupled for the first time with the ERA5 reanalysis and used to develop a case study assessment of the biophysical exposure component of vulnerability to coastal flooding for Liguria, an Italian coastal region facing the Mediterranean Sea. Different scenarios of wind speed and wave power were created in order to test the sensitivity of this approach to climate data inputs. The results support the applicability of this approach to provide a preliminary grasp of local vulnerability to coastal inundation. Yet, this work also highlights how the method’s data aggregation and indicator computation processes result in its insensitivity to wind and wave variations, and therefore in its unsuitability to reproduce climate scenarios. The implications of these findings for research methodology and regarding the operationalisation of vulnerability assessment results are discussed

Thermal behaviour of ski-boot liners: effect of materials on thermal comfort in real and simulated skiing conditions

The choice of the appropriate material for the construction of ski-boot liners is of fundamental importance in order to achieve ergonomic comfort and high thermal insulation. In this work the effect on thermal comfort of different materials used for commercial ski-boot liners has been analysed. The thermal insulation and the moisture management of liners made of different materials have been tested both in a climatic chamber and in outdoor conditions using wireless sensors combined with infrared thermography. The results obtained show substantial differences in terms of thermal comfort between the liners in the same environmental conditions, showing that closed cell ethylene vinyl acetate foams provide the best thermal comfor

Nowcasting economic activity in European regions using a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model

Timely information about the state of regional economies can be essential for planning, implementing and evaluating locally targeted economic policies. However, European regional accounts for output are published at an annual frequency and with a two-year delay. To obtain robust and more timely measures in a computationally efficient manner, we propose a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model that accounts for national information to produce high-frequency estimates of the regional gross value added (GVA). We show that our model produces reliable nowcasts of GVA in 162 regions across 12 European countries.Comment: JEL: C22, C53, R11; keywords: factor models, mixed-frequency, nowcasting, regional dat

Thermal behaviour of ski-boot liners: effect of materials on thermal comfort in real and simulated skiing conditions

The choice of the appropriate material for the construction of ski-boot liners is of fundamental importance in order to achieve ergonomic comfort and high thermal insulation. In this work the effect on thermal comfort of different materials used for commercial ski-boot liners has been analysed. The thermal insulation and the moisture management of liners made of different materials have been tested both in a climatic chamber and in outdoor conditions using wireless sensors combined with infrared thermography. The results obtained show substantial differences in terms of thermal comfort between the liners in the same environmental conditions, showing that closed cell ethylene vinyl acetate foams provide the best thermal comfort

Whom and Where Are We Not Vaccinating? Coverage after the Introduction of a New Conjugate Vaccine against Group A Meningococcus in Niger in 2010

MenAfriVac is a new conjugate vaccine against Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A developed for the African “meningitis belt”. In Niger, the first two phases of the MenAfriVac introduction campaign were conducted targeting 3,135,942 individuals aged 1 to 29 years in the regions of Tillabéri, Niamey, and Dosso, in September and December 2010. We evaluated the campaign and determined which sub-populations or areas had low levels of vaccination coverage in the regions of Tillabéri and Niamey. After Phase I, conducted in the Filingué district, we estimated coverage using a 30×15 cluster-sampling survey and nested lot quality assurance (LQA) analysis in the clustered samples to identify which subpopulations (defined by age 1–14/15–29 and sex) had unacceptable vaccination coverage (<70%). After Phase II, we used Clustered Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (CLQAS) to assess if any of eight districts in Niamey and Tillabéri had unacceptable vaccination coverage (<75%) and estimated overall coverage. Estimated vaccination coverage was 77.4% (95%CI: 84.6–70.2) as documented by vaccination cards and 85.5% (95% CI: 79.7–91.2) considering verbal history of vaccination for Phase I; 81.5% (95%CI: 86.1–77.0) by card and 93.4% (95% CI: 91.0–95.9) by verbal history for Phase II. Based on vaccination cards, in Filingué, we identified both the male and female adult (age 15–29) subpopulations as not reaching 70% coverage; and we identified three (one in Tillabéri and two in Niamey) out of eight districts as not reaching 75% coverage confirmed by card. Combined use of LQA and cluster sampling was useful to estimate vaccination coverage and to identify pockets with unacceptable levels of coverage (adult population and three districts). Although overall vaccination coverage was satisfactory, we recommend continuing vaccination in the areas or sub-populations with low coverage and reinforcing the social mobilization of the adult population

The contribution of large‑scale atmospheric circulation to variations of observed near‑surface wind speed across Sweden since 1926

This study investigates the centennial-scale (i.e., since 1926) variability of observed nearsurface wind speed across Sweden. Results show that wind speed underwent various phases of change during 1926–2019, i.e., (a) a clear slowdown during 1926–1960; (b) a stabilization from 1960 to 1990; (c) another clear slowdown during 1990–2003; (d) a slight recovery/stabilization period for 2003–2014, which may continue with a possible new slowdown. Furthermore, the performance of three reanalysis products in representing past wind variations is evaluated. The observed low-frequency variability is properly simulated by the selected reanalyses and is linked to the variations of different large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation). However, the evident periods of decreasing trend during 1926–1960 and 1990–2003, which drive most of the stilling in the last century, are missing in the reanalyses and cannot be realistically modeled through multiple linear regression by only using indexes of atmospheric circulation. Therefore, this study reveals that changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation mainly drive the low-frequency variability of observed near-surface wind speed, while other factors (e.g., changes in surface roughness) are crucial for explaining the periods of strong terrestrial stilling across Swede

Climatology of near-surface wind speed from observational, reanalysis and high-resolution regional climate model data over the Tibetan Plateau

As near-surface wind speed plays a role in regulating surface evaporation and thus the hydrological cycle, it is crucial to explore its spatio-temporal characteristics. However, in-situ measurements are scarce over the Tibetan Plateau, limiting the understanding of wind speed climate across this high-elevation region. This study explores the climatology of near-surface wind speed over the Tibetan Plateau by using for the frst time homogenized observations together with reanalysis products and regional climate model simulations. Measuring stations across the center and the west of the plateau are at higher elevations and display higher mean and standard deviation, confrming that wind speed increases with increasing altitude. By exploring wind characteristics with a focus on seasonal cycle through cluster analysis, three regions of distinct wind regimes can be identifed: (1) the central Tibetan Plateau, characterized by high elevation; (2) the eastern and the peripheral areas of the plateau; and (3) the Qaidam basin, a topographic depression strongly infuenced by the blocking efect of the surrounding mountainous terrain. Notably, the ERA5 reanalysis, with its improvements in horizontal, vertical, and temporal spacing, model physics and data assimilation, demonstrates closer agreement to the measured wind conditions than its predecessor ERA-Interim. It successfully reproduces the three identifed wind regimes. However, the newest ERA5-Land product does not show improvements compared to ERA5, most likely because they share most of the parametrizations. Furthermore, the two dynamical downscalings of ERA5 analyzed here fail to capture the observed wind statistics and exhibit notable biases and discrepancies also when investigating the diurnal variations. Consequently, these high-resolution downscaling products do not show add value in reproducing the observed climatology of wind speed compared to ERA5 over the Tibetan Plateau

Feasibility and acceptability of oral cholera vaccine mass vaccination campaign in response to an outbreak and floods in Malawi

Introduction: Despite some improvement in provision of safe drinking water, proper sanitation and hygiene promotion, cholera still remains a major public health problem in Malawi with outbreaks occurring almost every year since 1998. In response to 2014/2015 cholera outbreak, ministry of health and partners made a decision to assess the feasibility and acceptability of conducting a mass oral cholera vaccine (OCV) as an additional public health measure. This paper highlights the burden of the 2014/15 cholera outbreak, successes and challenges of OCV campaign conducted in March and April 2015. Methods: This was a documentation of the first OCV campaign conducted in Malawi. The campaign targeted over 160,000 people aged one year or more living in 19 camps of people internally displaced by floods and their surrounding communities in Nsanje district. It was a reactive campaign as additional measure to improved water, sanitation and hygiene in response to the laboratory confirmed cholera outbreak. Results: During the first round of the OCV campaign conducted from 30 March to 4 April 2015, a total of 156,592 (97.6%) people out of 160,482 target population received OCV. During the second round (20 to 25 April 2015), a total of 137,629 (85.8%) people received OCV. Of these, 108,247 (67.6%) people received their second dose while 29,382 (18.3%) were their first dose. Of the 134,836 people with known gender and sex who received 1 or 2 doses, 54.4% were females and over half (55.4%) were children under the age of 15 years. Among 108,237 people who received 2 doses (fully immunized), 54.4% were females and 51.9% were children under 15 years of age. No severe adverse event following immunization was reported. The main reason for non-vaccination or failure to take the 2 doses was absence during the period of the campaign. Conclusion: This documentation has demonstrated that it was feasible, acceptable by the community to conduct a largescale mass OCV campaign in Malawi within five weeks. Of 320,000 OCV doses received, Malawi managed to administer at least 294,221 (91.9%) of the doses. OCV could therefore be considered to be introduced as additional measure in cholera hot spot areas in Malawi.Pan African Medical Journal 2016; 2