A One-Sided Sustainability Test with Multiple Consumption Goods

In an economy with multiple consumption goods (including environmental amenities) that uniquely maximises the present value of utility with constant discounting, constant or falling augmented green net national product, or zero or negative augmented net investment, at any time implies that the economy is unsustainable then. "Augmented" means that time is treated as a productive stock, so augmented net investment includes the value of time. This allows future exogenous technical progress and changes in world prices to be included in a unified accounting framework, along with features such as resource depletion, pollution and foreign investment. The practical and philosophical rationale for testing sustainability in a present-value maximising, and therefore fully prescribed, development path are discussed

Exact Measures of Income in Two Capital-Resource-Time Economies

Exact optimal paths are calculated for two closed, continuous-time economies with explicit functional forms for utility from consumption, and for production from human-made capital and a non-renewable resource. Features of the first economy are non-linear utility, hyperbolic utility discounting and (possibly) hyperbolic technical progress. In it: (a) welfare-equivalent income > wealth-equivalent income > Sefton-Weale income > Net National Product, confirming that even if income is viewed only as a measure of prosperity, there is no point in trying to define it uniquely; (b) the Solow (1974) constant consumption path is a special case for a particular discount rate; (c) for a low enough discount rate, sustained growth is optimal even when technical progress is zero. The second economy has linear utility, a non-linear output split between consumption and investment, and exponential technical progress. In it, (a) Weitzman's (1997) technological progress premium works only if an upwards correction factor is first applied to the rate of progress in production, to convert it to a rate of progress in Net National Product; (b) Hartwick's rule has an unfamiliar form

Sustained growth from non-renewable resources: constant absolute genuine savings and constant relative genuine savings compared

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Fiddling while carbon burns: why climate policy needs pervasive emission pricing as well as technology promotion

Effective climate policy requires global emissions of greenhouse gases to be cut drastically, which in energy sectors can be achieved by lower emissions supply technologies, greater energy use efficiency, and substitution in demand. For policy to be efficient requires fairly uniform, pervasive emission pricing from taxes, permit trading, or hybrid combinations of the two, as well as significant government support for low-emission technologies. We compare the kind of technology-focused climate policies currently adopted by Australia and the USA, the ‘Asia- Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate’ (AP6), against this ideal policy yardstick. We find that they omit the need for emission pricing to achieve abatement effectively and efficiently; that they over-prescribe which abatement actions should be used most; that they make unrealistic assumptions about how much progress can be achieved by voluntarism and cooperation, in the absence of either adequate funding or mandatory policies; and that they unjustifiably contrast technology-focused policy and the Kyoto Protocol approach as the only two policies worth considering, and thus ignore other important options.greenhouse gas emissions, abatement, emission taxes, emissions trading, technology policy, innovation, Asia-Pacific Partnership, AP6

The Logic of Collective Action and Australia's Climate Policy

We analyse the long-term efficiency of the emissions target and of the provisions to reduce carbon leakage in the Australian Government's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, as proposed in March 2009, and the nature and likely cause of changes to these features in the previous year. The target range of 5-15% cuts in national emission entitlements during 2000-2020 was weak, in that on balance it is too low to minimise Australia's long-term mitigation costs. The free allocation of outputlinked, tradable emission permits to Emissions-Intensive, Trade-Exposed (EITE) sectors was much higher than proposed earlier, or shown to be needed to deal with carbon leakage. It plausibly means that EITE emissions can rise by 13% during 2010-2020, while non-EITE sectors must cut emissions by 34-51% (or make equivalent permit imports) to meet the national targets proposed, far from a cost-effective outcome. The weak targets and excessive EITE assistance illustrate the efficiencydamaging power of collective action by the 'carbon lobby'. Resisting this requires new national or international institutions to assess lobby claims impartially, and more government publicity about the true economic importance of carbon-intensive sectors. Published in the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, volume 54, pages 185-202.Environment

Fiddling while carbon burns: why climate policy needs pervasive emission pricing as well as technology promotion

Asia–Pacific Partnership, climate policy, pricing, technology, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Optimal intensity targets for emissions trading under uncertainty

Uncertainty can hamper the stringency of commitments under cap and trade schemes. We assess how well intensity targets, where countries' permit allocations are indexed to future realised GDP, can cope with uncertainties in a post-Kyoto international greenhouse emissions trading scheme. We present some empirical foundations for intensity targets and derive a simple rule for the optimal degree of indexation to GDP. Using an 18-region simulation model of a 2020 global cap-and-trade treaty under multiple uncertainties and endogenous commitments, we estimate that optimal intensity targets could achieve global abatement as much as 20 per cent higher than under absolute targets, and even greater increases in welfare measures. The optimal degree of indexation to GDP would vary greatly between countries, including super-indexation in some advanced countries, and partial indexation for most developing countries. Standard intensity targets (with one-toone indexation) would also improve the overall outcome, but to a lesser degree and not in all cases. Although target indexation is no magic wand for a future global climate treaty, gains from reduced cost uncertainty might justify increased complexity, framing issues and other potential downsides of intensity targets

Some Further Economics of Easter Island: Adding Subsistence and Resource Conservation

We extend Brander-Taylor's model of development on Easter Island by adding a resource subsistence requirement to people's preferences, and a conservation incentive in the form of a revenue-neutral, ad valorem tax on resource consumption. Adding subsistence improves plausibility; makes overshoot and collapse of population more extreme, and the steady state less stable; and allows for the possibility that statue building and erection will suddenly stop, in line with the archaeological evidence. We find a tax rate path which almost completely prevents overshoot, and conjecture that the overall strength of this path must rise when the subsistence level rises

Expectations of linear functions with respect to truncated multinormal distributions, with applications for uncertainty analysis in environmental modelling

This paper discusses results concerning multivariate normal distributions that are subject to truncation by a hyperplane and how such results can be applied to uncertainty analysis in the environmental sciences. We present a suite of results concerning truncated multivariate normal distributions, some of which already appear in the mathematical literature. The focus here is to make these types of results more accesible to the environmental science community and to this end we include a conceptually simple alternative derivation of an important result. We illustrate how the theory of truncated multivariate normal distributions can be employed in the environmental sciences by means of an example from the economics of climate change control

Augmented sustainability measures for Scotland

We estimate and compare two empirical measures of the weak sustainability of an economy for the first time: the change in augmented green net national product (GNNP), and the interest on augmented genuine savings (GS). Yearly calculations are given for each measure for Scotland during 1992-99. Augmentation means including, using projections to 2020, changed production possibilities enabled by exogenous technical progress or changing oil prices. The change in augmented GNNP and interest on augmented GS are both always positive, showing no sustainability problem for Scotland then, according to the assumptions underlying our weak sustainability calculations. However, the former greatly exceeds the latter, a mismatch which poses an unresolved problem with the theory. Resolving it may require respecifying the utility functions used in mainstream growth theory