Routine clinical parameters and laboratory testing predict therapy-related myeloid neoplasms after treatment for breast cancer

We aim to identify predictors of therapy-related myeloid neoplasms (t-MN) in patients with breast cancer (BC) and cytopenias to determine the timing of bone marrow biopsy (BMBx). Patients with BC and cytopenias who were referred for BMBx between 2002-2018 were identified using the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center institutional database. Characteristics associated with the risk of t-MN were evaluated by multivariable logistic regression and included in a predictive model. The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated by 5-fold cross-validation. Of the 206 BC patients who underwent BMBx included in our study, 107 had t-MN. By multivariable analysis, white blood cell count 4-11 K/mcL, absolute neutrophil count (ANC) ≥1.5 K/mcL, hemoglobin ≥12.2 g/dL, red cell distribution width 11.5-14.5%, the presence of bone metastasis and a time from BC diagnosis to BMBx <15 months significantly decreased the likelihood of t-MN. The average AUC was 0.88. We stratified our cohort by bone metastasis and by findings on peripheral smear. In both the subset without bone metastasis (n=159) and in the cohort with no blasts or dysplastic cells on peripheral smear (n=96) our variables had similar effects on the risk of t-MN. Among the 47 patients with bone metastasis, an ANC ≥1.5 K/mcL was the only variable associated with a decreased risk of t-MN. Our findings show that in patients with BC and unexplained cytopenias, clinical and laboratory parameters can predict t-MN and assist clinicians in determining the timing of a BMBx

Plasma proteomic signature predicts myeloid neoplasm risk

PURPOSE: Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) is thought to be the origin of myeloid neoplasms (MN). Yet, our understanding of the mechanisms driving CH progression to MN and clinical risk prediction of MN remains limited. The human proteome reflects complex interactions between genetic and epigenetic regulation of biological systems. We hypothesized that the plasma proteome might predict MN risk and inform our understanding of the mechanisms promoting MN development. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We jointly characterized CH and plasma proteomic profiles of 46,237 individuals in the UK Biobank at baseline study entry. During 500,036 person-years of follow-up, 115 individuals developed MN. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to test for an association between plasma protein levels and MN risk. RESULTS: We identified 115 proteins associated with MN risk, of which 30% (N = 34) were also associated with CH. These were enriched for known regulators of the innate and adaptive immune system. Plasma proteomics improved the prediction of MN risk (AUC = 0.85; P = 5×10-9) beyond clinical factors and CH (AUC = 0.80). In an independent group (N = 381,485), we used inherited polygenic risk scores (PRS) for plasma protein levels to validate the relevance of these proteins toMNdevelopment. PRS analyses suggest that most MN-associated proteins we identified are not directly causally linked toMN risk, but rather represent downstream markers of pathways regulating the progression of CH to MN. CONCLUSIONS: These data highlight the role of immune cell regulation in the progression of CH to MN and the promise of leveraging multi-omic characterization of CH to improveMN risk stratification. See related commentary by Bhalgat and Taylor, p. 3095

Multiplex qPCR Discriminates Variants of Concern to Enhance Global Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2

With the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants that may increase transmissibility and/or cause escape from immune responses, there is an urgent need for the targeted surveillance of circulating lineages. It was found that the B.1.1.7 (also 501Y.V1) variant, first detected in the United Kingdom, could be serendipitously detected by the Thermo Fisher TaqPath COVID-19 PCR assay because a key deletion in these viruses, spike Δ69-70, would cause a spike gene target failure (SGTF) result. However, a SGTF result is not definitive for B.1.1.7, and this assay cannot detect other variants of concern (VOC) that lack spike Δ69-70, such as B.1.351 (also 501Y.V2), detected in South Africa, and P.1 (also 501Y.V3), recently detected in Brazil. We identified a deletion in the ORF1a gene (ORF1a Δ3675-3677) in all 3 variants, which has not yet been widely detected in other SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Using ORF1a Δ3675-3677 as the primary target and spike Δ69-70 to differentiate, we designed and validated an open-source PCR assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 VOC. Our assay can be rapidly deployed in laboratories around the world to enhance surveillance for the local emergence and spread of B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1

Disease-Modifying Therapies and Coronavirus Disease 2019 Severity in Multiple Sclerosis

Objective: This study was undertaken to assess the impact of immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory therapies on the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Methods: We retrospectively collected data of PwMS with suspected or confirmed COVID-19. All the patients had complete follow-up to death or recovery. Severe COVID-19 was defined by a 3-level variable: mild disease not requiring hospitalization versus pneumonia or hospitalization versus intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death. We evaluated baseline characteristics and MS therapies associated with severe COVID-19 by multivariate and propensity score (PS)-weighted ordinal logistic models. Sensitivity analyses were run to confirm the results. Results: Of 844 PwMS with suspected (n = 565) or confirmed (n = 279) COVID-19, 13 (1.54%) died; 11 of them were in a progressive MS phase, and 8 were without any therapy. Thirty-eight (4.5%) were admitted to an ICU; 99 (11.7%) had radiologically documented pneumonia; 96 (11.4%) were hospitalized. After adjusting for region, age, sex, progressive MS course, Expanded Disability Status Scale, disease duration, body mass index, comorbidities, and recent methylprednisolone use, therapy with an anti-CD20 agent (ocrelizumab or rituximab) was significantly associated (odds ratio [OR] = 2.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18-4.74, p = 0.015) with increased risk of severe COVID-19. Recent use (&lt;1 month) of methylprednisolone was also associated with a worse outcome (OR = 5.24, 95% CI = 2.20-12.53, p = 0.001). Results were confirmed by the PS-weighted analysis and by all the sensitivity analyses. Interpretation: This study showed an acceptable level of safety of therapies with a broad array of mechanisms of action. However, some specific elements of risk emerged. These will need to be considered while the COVID-19 pandemic persists

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Genetic Polymorphisms Involved in Mitochondrial Metabolism and Pancreatic Cancer Risk

Background: The mitochondrial metabolism has been associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) risk. Recent evidence also suggests the involvement of the genetic variability of the mitochondrial function in several traits involved in PDAC etiology. However, a systematic investigation of the genetic variability of mitochondrial genome (mtSNP) and of all the nuclear genes involved in its functioning (n-mtSNPs) has never been reported. Methods: We conducted a two-phase association study of mtSNPs and n-mtSNPs to assess their effect on PDAC risk. We analyzed 35,297 n-mtSNPs and 101 mtSNPs in up to 55,870 individuals (12,884 PDAC cases and 42,986 controls). In addition, we also conducted a gene-based analysis on 1,588 genes involved in mitochondrial metabolism using Multi-marker Analysis of GenoMic Annotation (MAGMA) software. Results: In the discovery phase, we identified 49 n-mtSNPs and no mtSNPs associated with PDAC risk (P &lt; 0.05). In the second phase, none of the findings were replicated. In the gene-level analysis, we observed that three genes (TERT, SUGCT, and SURF1) involved in the mitochondrial metabolism showed an association below the Bonferroni-corrected threshold of statistical significance (P = 0.05/1588 = 3.1 × 10–5). Conclusions: Even though the mitochondrial metabolism might be involved in PDAC etiology, our results, obtained in a study with one of the largest sample sizes to date, show that neither n-mtSNPs nor mtSNPs are associated with PDAC risk. Impact: This large case–control study does not support a role of the genetic variability of the mitochondrial function in PDAC risk

Identification of Recessively Inherited Genetic Variants Potentially Linked to Pancreatic Cancer Risk

Although 21 pancreatic cancer susceptibility loci have been identified in individuals of European ancestry through genome-wide association studies (GWASs), much of the heritability of pancreatic cancer risk remains unidentified. A recessive genetic model could be a powerful tool for identifying additional risk variants. To discover recessively inherited pancreatic cancer risk loci, we performed a re-analysis of the largest pancreatic cancer GWAS, the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan) and the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4), including 8,769 cases and 7,055 controls of European ancestry. Six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed associations with pancreatic cancer risk according to a recessive model of inheritance. We replicated these variants in 3,212 cases and 3,470 controls collected from the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium. The results of the meta-analyses confirmed that rs4626538 (7q32.2), rs7008921 (8p23.2) and rs147904962 (17q21.31) showed specific recessive effects (p10−3), although none of the six SNPs reached the conventional threshold for genome-wide significance (p < 5×10−8). Additional bioinformatic analysis explored the functional annotations of the SNPs and indicated a possible relationship between rs36018702 and expression of the BCL2L11 and BUB1 genes, which are known to be involved in pancreatic biology. Our findings, while not conclusive, indicate the importance of considering non-additive genetic models when performing GWAS analysis. The SNPs associated with pancreatic cancer in this study could be used for further meta-analysis for recessive association of SNPs and pancreatic cancer risk and might be a useful addiction to improve the performance of polygenic risk scores

Durability of first-line regimens including integrase strand transfer inhibitors ({INSTIs}): data from a real-life setting

Objectives: To evaluate the durability of three integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) and two NRTIs in ART-naive individuals.Methods: The study design was observational. Patients were HIV-positive, ART-naive subjects starting raltegravir, elvitegravir/cobicistat or dolutegravir with two NRTIs. The primary endpoint was time to treatment failure, i.e. occurrence of virological failure (first of two consecutive plasma HIV RNAs &gt;= 200 copies/mL after 24 weeks) or INSTI discontinuation for any reason apart from simplification. Secondary endpoints were INSTI discontinuation due to toxicity/intolerance and CD4 count response. Survival analysis was done using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression.Results: Two thousand and sixteen patients were included: 310 (15.4%) started raltegravir-based regimens, 994 (49.3%) started dolutegravir-based regimens and 712 (35.3%) started elvitegravir/cobicistat-based regimens. Over a median of 11months, 167 patients experienced treatment failure; the 1 year probability of treatment failure was 6.5% for raltegravir, 5.4% for dolutegravir and 6.7% for elvitegravir/cobicistat (P = 0.001). Sixty-eight patients (3.4%) discontinued INSTIs owing to toxicity/intolerance. By multivariable analysis, patients starting raltegravir had a 2.03-fold (95% CI = 1.2-3.2) higher risk and patients on elvitegravir/cobicistat a 1.88-fold (95% CI = 1.2-2.9) higher risk of treatment failure versus dolutegravir; there was no difference in risk of discontinuation due to toxicity/intolerance when comparing dolutegravir and raltegravir and marginal evidence for a difference when comparing elvitegravir/cobicistat and dolutegravir (adjusted relative hazard = 1.94 for elvitegravir/cobicistat versus dolutegravir, 95% CI = 1.00-3.76, P = 0.05).Conclusions: In our real-life setting, INSTI-based regimens showed high potency and durability. Among regimens currently recommended in Europe, those including dolutegravir are associated with a lower risk of treatment failure

Identification of Recessively Inherited Genetic Variants Potentially Linked to Pancreatic Cancer Risk

Although 21 pancreatic cancer susceptibility loci have been identified in individuals of European ancestry through genome-wide association studies (GWASs), much of the heritability of pancreatic cancer risk remains unidentified. A recessive genetic model could be a powerful tool for identifying additional risk variants. To discover recessively inherited pancreatic cancer risk loci, we performed a re-analysis of the largest pancreatic cancer GWAS, the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan) and the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4), including 8,769 cases and 7,055 controls of European ancestry. Six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed associations with pancreatic cancer risk according to a recessive model of inheritance. We replicated these variants in 3,212 cases and 3,470 controls collected from the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium. The results of the meta-analyses confirmed that rs4626538 (7q32.2), rs7008921 (8p23.2) and rs147904962 (17q21.31) showed specific recessive effects (p&lt;10(-5)) compared with the additive effects (p&gt;10(-3)), although none of the six SNPs reached the conventional threshold for genome-wide significance (p &lt; 5x10(-8)). Additional bioinformatic analysis explored the functional annotations of the SNPs and indicated a possible relationship between rs36018702 and expression of the BCL2L11 and BUB1 genes, which are known to be involved in pancreatic biology. Our findings, while not conclusive, indicate the importance of considering non-additive genetic models when performing GWAS analysis. The SNPs associated with pancreatic cancer in this study could be used for further meta-analysis for recessive association of SNPs and pancreatic cancer risk and might be a useful addiction to improve the performance of polygenic risk scores