Targeting vaccination against novel infections : risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain

The emergence of a novel strain of H1N1 influenza virus in Mexico in 2009, and its subsequent worldwide spread, has focused attention to the question of optimal deployment of mass vaccination campaigns. Here, we use three relatively simple models to address three issues of primary concern in the targeting of any vaccine. The advantages of such simple models are that the underlying assumptions and effects of individual parameters are relatively clear, and the impact of uncertainty in the parametrization can be readily assessed in the early stages of an outbreak. In particular, we examine whether targeting risk-groups, age-groups or spatial regions could be optimal in terms of reducing the predicted number of cases or severe effects; and how these targeted strategies vary as the epidemic progresses. We examine the conditions under which it is optimal to initially target vaccination towards those individuals within the population who are most at risk of severe effects of infection. Using age-structured mixing matrices, we show that targeting vaccination towards the more epidemiologically important age groups (5-14 year olds and then 15-24 year olds) leads to the greatest reduction in the epidemic growth and hence reduces the total number of cases. Finally, we consider how spatially targeting the vaccine towards regions of country worst affected could provide an advantage. We discuss how all three of these priorities change as both the speed at which vaccination can be deployed and the start of the vaccination programme is varied

Survey of Foreign Aid: History, Trends and Allocation

This paper (i) traces the historical origins of foreign aid, (ii) investigates tren­ds in the volume, composition, allocation and quality of aid flows, and (iii) reviews the empirical literature on aid allocation. The paper concludes that, historically, aid has served a multitude of objectives. For some donors, the allocation and quality of aid have been largely shaped by concern for the development needs of recipients. By contrast, the foreign aid of some larger donors has been used principally as a foreign and commercial policy tool. Yet while this particular character of aid flows may well have impaired the effectiveness of aid, there is no automatic contradiction between donor and recipient objectives. Perhaps the most important change in the aid picture is the reversal after 1992 of the historic upward trend in aid volumes. This may not be a problem when smaller aid flows are compensated by private flows, as has happened in several developing countries. Yet it may be a problem in low-income countries without access to private capital, which continue to rely on aid for financial resources. The underlying premises of donor-recipient cooperation are very different when aid resources become more limited, especially when debt service is still a factor of significance. The need to keep objectives and rationales clear turn out to be even more important.Foreign Aid; Aid Allocation

Construction and performance of a novel capture-mark-release moth trap

Mark-recapture studies can provide important information about moth movement as well as habitat preference across a landscape, but to date, such studies tend to be species-specific or require labor-intensive methodologies. To address this challenge, we designed a capture-mark-release-trap (CMRT) featuring a cooling unit attached to a black light trap. The CMRT captures and incapacitates moths throughout the night until the morning, when they can be marked on-site and released. Moths captured with the CMRT during summer of 2016 had a recapture rate of 1.6%, similar to those of previous studies. Importantly, because moths are immobilized by the CMRT, they can be handled and marked with ease, reducing the opportunities to damage specimens prior to release. The CMRT trap can capture a wide array of moth species and may facilitate an increase in the monitoring of moth movement across landscapes

The New York Stock Market in the 1920s and 1930s: Did Stock Prices Move Together Too Much?

In this paper, we re-examine the stock market of the 1920s and 1930s for evidence of a bubble, a 'fad' or 'herding' behavior by studying individual stock returns. One story often advanced for the boom of 1928 and 1929 is that it was driven by the entry into the market of largely uninformed investors, who followed the fortunes of and invested in 'favorite' stocks. The recent theoretical literature on how 'noise traders' perturb financial markets is consistent with this description. The result of this behavior would be a tendency for the favorite stocks' prices to move together more than would be predicted by their shared fundamentals. Our results suggest that there was excess comovement in returns even before the boom began, but comovement increased significantly during the boom and was a signal characteristic of the tumultuous market of the early 1930s. These results are thus consistent with the possibility that a fad or crowd psychology played a role in the rise of the market, its crash and subsequent volatility.

Was there a bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?

Standard tests find that no bubbles are present in the stock price data for the last one hundred years. In contrast., historical accounts, focusing on briefer periods, point to the stock market of 1928-1929 as a classic example of a bubble. While previous studies have restricted their attention to the joint behavior of stock prices and dividends over the course of a century, this paper uses the behavior of the premia demanded on loans collateralized by the purchase of stocks to evaluate the claim that the boom and crash of 1929 represented a bubble. We develop a model that permits us to extract an estimate of the path of the bubble and its probability of bursting in any period and demonstrate that the premium behaves as would be expected in the presence of a bubble in stock prices. We also find that our estimate of the bubble's path has explanatory power when added to the standard cointegrating regressions of stock prices and dividends, in spite of the fact that our stock price and dividend series are cointegrated.

New ΔR for the southwest Pacific Ocean

ΔR results of known-age shells from the Solomon and Coral Seas and the northwest coast of New Ireland are presented. The results are too few to be conclusive but indicate that ΔR in this region is variable. An average ΔR value of 370 ± 25 yr is recorded for a range of shell species from Kavieng Harbor, New Ireland, and is primarily attributed to weak equatorial upwelling of depleted 14C due to seasonal current reversals. In contrast, values from the Solomon and Coral Seas are lower (average ΔR = 45 ± 19 yr). Higher ΔR values for some shellfish from these 2 seas is attributed to ingestion of 14Cdepleted sediment by deposit-feeding species

General Practitioners' perceptions of the route to evidence-based medicine: a questionnaire survey

Objectives: To determine the attitude of general practitioners towards evidence based medicine and their related educational needs. Design: A questionnaire study of general practitioners. Setting: General practice in the former Wessex region, England. Subjects: Randomly selected sample of 25% of all general practitioners (452), of whom 302 replied. Main outcome measures: Respondents' attitude towards evidence based medicine, ability to access and interpret evidence, perceived barriers to practising evidence based medicine, and best method of moving from opinion based to evidence based medicine. Results: Respondents mainly welcomed evidence based medicine and agreed that its practice improves patient care. They had a low level of awareness of extracting journals, review publications, and databases (only 40% knew of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews), and, even if aware, many did not use them. In their surgeries 20% had access to bibliographic databases and 17% to the world wide web. Most had some understanding of the technical terms used. The major perceived barrier to practising evidence based medicine was lack of personal time. Respondents thought the most appropriate way to move towards evidence based general practice was by using evidence based guidelines or proposals developed by colleagues. Conclusion: Promoting and improving access to summaries of evidence, rather than teaching all general practitioners literature searching and critical appraisal, would be the more appropriate method of encouraging evidence based general practice. General practitioners who are skilled in accessing and interpreting evidence should be encouraged to develop local evidence based guidelines and advice

Demand and Pricing in Electricity Markets: Evidence from San Diego During California's Energy Crisis

We study the electricity consumption of San Diego-area households following a series of price changes and related events during California's energy crisis in 2000-01. The analysis uses a five-year panel of disaggregate billing and weather data for a random sample of 70,000 households. In contrast to prior work, these data allow us to proceed without behavioral assumptions regarding a consumer's knowledge of energy prices. We find that after a rapid price increase in summer 2000, consumption fell substantially over about 60 days, averaging 12% per household; consumption then rebounded to within 3% of pre-crisis levels after a price cap was imposed. Under the price cap public appeals for energy conservation and a remunerative voluntary conservation program had significant, but transitory, effects. Further, a large share of households reduced electricity consumption substantially (over 10%) but saved small monetary amounts ($10 or less). Overall, the results indicate consumers may be far more responsive to pecuniary and non-pecuniary incentives for altering their energy use than is commonly believed.