A Likelihood-Free Inference Framework for Population Genetic Data using Exchangeable Neural Networks

An explosion of high-throughput DNA sequencing in the past decade has led to a surge of interest in population-scale inference with whole-genome data. Recent work in population genetics has centered on designing inference methods for relatively simple model classes, and few scalable general-purpose inference techniques exist for more realistic, complex models. To achieve this, two inferential challenges need to be addressed: (1) population data are exchangeable, calling for methods that efficiently exploit the symmetries of the data, and (2) computing likelihoods is intractable as it requires integrating over a set of correlated, extremely high-dimensional latent variables. These challenges are traditionally tackled by likelihood-free methods that use scientific simulators to generate datasets and reduce them to hand-designed, permutation-invariant summary statistics, often leading to inaccurate inference. In this work, we develop an exchangeable neural network that performs summary statistic-free, likelihood-free inference. Our framework can be applied in a black-box fashion across a variety of simulation-based tasks, both within and outside biology. We demonstrate the power of our approach on the recombination hotspot testing problem, outperforming the state-of-the-art.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figure

Poisson random fields for dynamic feature models

We present the Wright-Fisher Indian buffet process (WF-IBP), a probabilistic model for time-dependent data assumed to have been generated by an unknown number of latent features. This model is suitable as a prior in Bayesian nonparametric feature allocation models in which the features underlying the observed data exhibit a dependency structure over time. More specifically, we establish a new framework for generating dependent Indian buffet processes, where the Poisson random field model from population genetics is used as a way of constructing dependent beta processes. Inference in the model is complex, and we describe a sophisticated Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for exact posterior simulation. We apply our construction to develop a nonparametric focused topic model for collections of time-stamped text documents and test it on the full corpus of NIPS papers published from 1987 to 2015

Flexible and efficient inference with particles for the variational Gaussian approximation

Variational inference is a powerful framework, used to approximate intractable posteriors through variational distributions. The de facto standard is to rely on Gaussian variational families, which come with numerous advantages: they are easy to sample from, simple to parametrize, and many expectations are known in closed-form or readily computed by quadrature. In this paper, we view the Gaussian variational approximation problem through the lens of gradient flows. We introduce a flexible and efficient algorithm based on a linear flow leading to a particle-based approximation. We prove that, with a sufficient number of particles, our algorithm converges linearly to the exact solution for Gaussian targets, and a low-rank approximation otherwise. In addition to the theoretical analysis, we show, on a set of synthetic and real-world high-dimensional problems, that our algorithm outperforms existing methods with Gaussian targets while performing on a par with non-Gaussian targets.DFG, 414044773, Open Access Publizieren 2021 - 2022 / Technische Universität Berli