Kinetics of acute hepatitis B virus infection in humans

Using patient data from a unique single source outbreak of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, we have characterized the kinetics of acute HBV infection by monitoring viral turnover in the serum during the late incubation and clinical phases of the disease in humans. HBV replicates rapidly with minimally estimated doubling times ranging between 2.2 and 5.8 d (mean 3.7 ± 1.5 d). After a peak viral load in serum of nearly 1010 HBV DNA copies/ml is attained, clearance of HBV DNA follows a two or three phase decay pattern with an initial rapid decline characterized by mean half-life (t1/2) of 3.7 ± 1.2 d, similar to the t1/2 observed in the noncytolytic clearance of covalently closed circular DNA for other hepadnaviruses. The final phase of virion clearance occurs at a variable rate (t1/2 of 4.8 to 284 d) and may relate to the rate of loss of infected hepatocytes. Free virus has a mean t1/2 of at most 1.2 ± 0.6 d. We estimate a peak HBV production rate of at least 1013 virions/day and a maximum production rate of an infected hepatocyte of 200–1,000 virions/day, on average. At this peak rate of virion production we estimate that every possible single and most double mutations would be created each day

Global stability for a class of virus models with CTL immune response and antigenic variation

We study the global stability of a class of models for in-vivo virus dynamics, that take into account the CTL immune response and display antigenic variation. This class includes a number of models that have been extensively used to model HIV dynamics. We show that models in this class are globally asymptotically stable, under mild hypothesis, by using appropriate Lyapunov functions. We also characterise the stable equilibrium points for the entire biologically relevant parameter range. As a byproduct, we are able to determine what is the diversity of the persistent strains.Comment: 15 page

Large phenotype jumps in biomolecular evolution

By defining the phenotype of a biopolymer by its active three-dimensional shape, and its genotype by its primary sequence, we propose a model that predicts and characterizes the statistical distribution of a population of biopolymers with a specific phenotype, that originated from a given genotypic sequence by a single mutational event. Depending on the ratio g0 that characterizes the spread of potential energies of the mutated population with respect to temperature, three different statistical regimes have been identified. We suggest that biopolymers found in nature are in a critical regime with g0 in the range 1-6, corresponding to a broad, but not too broad, phenotypic distribution resembling a truncated Levy flight. Thus the biopolymer phenotype can be considerably modified in just a few mutations. The proposed model is in good agreement with the experimental distribution of activities determined for a population of single mutants of a group I ribozyme.Comment: to appear in Phys. Rev. E; 7 pages, 6 figures; longer discussion in VII, new fig.

NS5A inhibitors unmask differences in functional replicase complex half-life between different hepatitis C virus strains

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA is synthesized by the replicase complex (RC), a macromolecular assembly composed of viral non-structural proteins and cellular co-factors. Inhibitors of the HCV NS5A protein block formation of new RCs but do not affect RNA synthesis by pre-formed RCs. Without new RC formation, existing RCs turn over and are eventually lost from the cell. We aimed to use NS5A inhibitors to estimate the half-life of the functional RC of HCV. We compared different cell culture-infectious strains of HCV that may be grouped based on their sensitivity to lipid peroxidation: robustly replicating, lipid peroxidation resistant (LPOR) viruses (e.g. JFH-1 or H77D) and more slowly replicating, lipid peroxidation sensitive (LPOS) viruses (e.g. H77S.3 and N.2). In luciferase assays, LPOSHCV strains declined under NS5A inhibitor therapy with much slower kinetics compared to LPORHCV strains. This difference in rate of decline was not observed for inhibitors of the NS5B RNA-dependent RNA polymerase suggesting that the difference was not simply a consequence of differences in RNA stability. In further analyses, we compared two isoclonal HCV variants: the LPOSH77S.3 and the LPORH77D that differ only by 12 amino acids. Differences in rate of decline between H77S.3 and H77D following NS5A inhibitor addition were not due to amino acid sequences in NS5A but rather due to a combination of amino acid differences in the non-structural proteins that make up the HCV RC. Mathematical modeling of intracellular HCV RNA dynamics suggested that differences in RC stability (half-lives of 3.5 and 9.9 hours, for H77D and H77S.3, respectively) are responsible for the different kinetics of antiviral suppression between LPOSand LPORviruses. In nascent RNA capture assays, the rate of RNA synthesis decline following NS5A inhibitor addition was significantly faster for H77D compared to H77S.3 indicating different half-lives of functional RCs

Epidemic processes with immunization

We study a model of directed percolation (DP) with immunization, i.e. with different probabilities for the first infection and subsequent infections. The immunization effect leads to an additional non-Markovian term in the corresponding field theoretical action. We consider immunization as a small perturbation around the DP fixed point in d<6, where the non-Markovian term is relevant. The immunization causes the system to be driven away from the neighbourhood of the DP critical point. In order to investigate the dynamical critical behaviour of the model, we consider the limits of low and high first infection rate, while the second infection rate remains constant at the DP critical value. Scaling arguments are applied to obtain an expression for the survival probability in both limits. The corresponding exponents are written in terms of the critical exponents for ordinary DP and DP with a wall. We find that the survival probability does not obey a power law behaviour, decaying instead as a stretched exponential in the low first infection probability limit and to a constant in the high first infection probability limit. The theoretical predictions are confirmed by optimized numerical simulations in 1+1 dimensions.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures. v.2: minor correction

Mathematical modeling of plus-strand RNA virus replication to identify broad-spectrum antiviral treatment strategies

Plus-strand RNA viruses are the largest group of viruses. Many are human pathogens that inflict a socio-economic burden. Interestingly, plus-strand RNA viruses share remarkable similarities in their replication. A hallmark of plus-strand RNA viruses is the remodeling of intracellular membranes to establish replication organelles (so-called “replication factories”), which provide a protected environment for the replicase complex, consisting of the viral genome and proteins necessary for viral RNA synthesis. In the current study, we investigate pan-viral similarities and virus-specific differences in the life cycle of this highly relevant group of viruses. We first measured the kinetics of viral RNA, viral protein, and infectious virus particle production of hepatitis C virus (HCV), dengue virus (DENV), and coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) in the immuno-compromised Huh7 cell line and thus without perturbations by an intrinsic immune response. Based on these measurements, we developed a detailed mathematical model of the replication of HCV, DENV, and CVB3 and showed that only small virus-specific changes in the model were necessary to describe the in vitro dynamics of the different viruses. Our model correctly predicted virus-specific mechanisms such as host cell translation shut off and different kinetics of replication organelles. Further, our model suggests that the ability to suppress or shut down host cell mRNA translation may be a key factor for in vitro replication efficiency, which may determine acute self-limited or chronic infection. We further analyzed potential broad-spectrum antiviral treatment options in silico and found that targeting viral RNA translation, such as polyprotein cleavage and viral RNA synthesis, may be the most promising drug targets for all plus-strand RNA viruses. Moreover, we found that targeting only the formation of replicase complexes did not stop the in vitro viral replication early in infection, while inhibiting intracellular trafficking processes may even lead to amplified viral growth. Molecular basis of virus replication, viral pathogenesis and antiviral strategie

Immediate antiviral therapy appears to restrict resting CD4 + cell HIV-1 infection without accelerating the decay of latent infection

HIV type 1 (HIV-1) persists within resting CD4 + T cells despite anti-retroviral therapy (ART). To better understand the kinetics by which resting cell infection (RCI) is established, we developed a mathematical model that accurately predicts (r = 0.65, P = 2.5 × 10 -4) the initial frequency of RCI measured about 1 year postinfection, based on the time of ART initiation and the dynamic changes in viremia and CD4 + T cells. In the largest cohort of patients treated during acute seronegative HIV infection (AHI) in whom RCI has been stringently quantified, we found that early ART reduced the generation of latently infected cells. Although RCI declined after the first year of ART in most acutely infected patients, there was a striking absence of decline when initial RCI frequency was less than 0.5 per million. Notably, low-level viremia was observed more frequently as RCI increased. Together these observations suggest that (i) the degree of RCI is directly related to the availability of CD4 + T cells susceptible to HIV, whether viremia is controlled by the immune response and/or ART; and (ii) that two pools of infected resting CD4 + T cells exist, namely, less stable cells, observable in patients in whom viremia is not well controlled in early infection, and extremely stable cells that are established despite early ART. These findings reinforce and extend the concept that new approaches will be needed to eradicate HIV infection, and, in particular, highlight the need to target the extremely small but universal, long-lived latent reservoir

Modeling the emergence of viral resistance for SARS-CoV-2 during treatment with an anti-spike monoclonal antibody

To mitigate the loss of lives during the COVID-19 pandemic, emergency use authorization was given to several anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients with a high risk of progressing to severe disease. Monoclonal antibodies used to treat SARS-CoV-2 target the spike protein of the virus and block its ability to enter and infect target cells. Monoclonal antibody therapy can thus accelerate the decline in viral load and lower hospitalization rates among high-risk patients with variants susceptible to mAb therapy. However, viral resistance has been observed, in some cases leading to a transient viral rebound that can be as large as 3-4 orders of magnitude. As mAbs represent a proven treatment choice for SARS-CoV-2 and other viral infections, evaluation of treatment-emergent mAb resistance can help uncover underlying pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and may also help in the development of the next generation of mAb therapies. Although resistance can be expected, the large rebounds observed are much more difficult to explain. We hypothesize replenishment of target cells is necessary to generate the high transient viral rebound. Thus, we formulated two models with different mechanisms for target cell replenishment (homeostatic proliferation and return from an innate immune response antiviral state) and fit them to data from persons with SARS-CoV-2 treated with a mAb. We showed that both models can explain the emergence of resistant virus associated with high transient viral rebounds. We found that variations in the target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters have a strong impact on the magnitude or observability of the viral rebound associated with the emergence of resistant virus. Both variations in target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters may explain why only some individuals develop observable transient resistant viral rebound. Our study highlights the conditions that can lead to resistance and subsequent viral rebound in mAb treatments during acute infection

Representation in the (Artificial) Immune System

Much of contemporary research in Artificial Immune Systems (AIS) has partitioned into either algorithmic machine learning and optimisation, or, modelling biologically plausible dynamical systems, with little overlap between. We propose that this dichotomy is somewhat to blame for the lack of significant advancement of the field in either direction and demonstrate how a simplistic interpretation of Perelson’s shape-space formalism may have largely contributed to this dichotomy. In this paper, we motivate and derive an alternative representational abstraction. To do so we consider the validity of shape-space from both the biological and machine learning perspectives. We then take steps towards formally integrating these perspectives into a coherent computational model of notions such as life-long learning, degeneracy, constructive representations and contextual recognition—rhetoric that has long inspired work in AIS, while remaining largely devoid of operational definition

Antiviral and clinical activity of bamlanivimab in a randomized trial of non-hospitalized adults with COVID-19

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies are mainstay COVID-19 therapeutics. Safety, antiviral, and clinical efficacy of bamlanivimab were evaluated in the randomized controlled trial ACTIV-2/A5401. Non-hospitalized adults were randomized 1:1 within 10 days of COVID-19 symptoms to bamlanivimab or blinded-placebo in two dose-cohorts (7000 mg, n = 94; 700 mg, n = 223). No differences in bamlanivimab vs placebo were observed in the primary outcomes: proportion with undetectable nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 RNA at days 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28 (risk ratio = 0.82-1.05 for 7000 mg [p(overall) = 0.88] and 0.81-1.21 for 700 mg [p(overall) = 0.49]), time to symptom improvement (median 21 vs 18.5 days [p = 0.97], 7000 mg; 24 vs 20.5 days [p = 0.08], 700 mg), or grade 3+ adverse events. However, bamlanivimab was associated with lower day 3 nasopharyngeal viral levels and faster reductions in inflammatory markers and viral decay by modeling. This study provides evidence of faster reductions in nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels but not shorter symptom durations in non-hospitalized adults with early variants of SARS-CoV-2