Temporal and spatial variations in freshwater 14C reservoir effects: Lake Myvatn, Northern Iceland

Lake Mývatn is an interior highland lake in northern Iceland that forms a unique ecosystem of international scientific importance and is surrounded by a landscape rich in archaeological and palaeoenvironmental sites. A significant Freshwater 14C Reservoir Effect (FRE) has been identified in carbon from the lake at some Norse (c.870-1000 AD) archaeological sites in the wider region (Mývatnssveit). Previous AMS measurements indicated this FRE was ~1500-1900 14C years. Here we present the results of a study using stable isotope and 14C measurements to quantify the Mývatn FRE for both the Norse and modern periods. This work has identified a temporally variable FRE that is greatly in excess of previous assessments. New, paired samples of contemporaneous bone from terrestrial herbivores and omnivores (including humans) from Norse sites demonstrate at least some omnivore diets incorporated sufficient freshwater resources to result in a herbivore-omnivore age offset of up to 400 14C yrs. Modern samples of benthic detritus, aquatic plants, zooplankton, invertebrates and freshwater fish indicate an FRE in excess of 5000 14C yrs in some species. Likely geothermal mechanisms for this large FRE are discussed, along with implications for both chronological reconstruction and integrated investigation of stable and radioactive isotop

PDE-Refiner: Achieving Accurate Long Rollouts with Neural PDE Solvers

Time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Recently, mostly due to the high computational cost of traditional solution techniques, deep neural network based surrogates have gained increased interest. The practical utility of such neural PDE solvers relies on their ability to provide accurate, stable predictions over long time horizons, which is a notoriously hard problem. In this work, we present a large-scale analysis of common temporal rollout strategies, identifying the neglect of non-dominant spatial frequency information, often associated with high frequencies in PDE solutions, as the primary pitfall limiting stable, accurate rollout performance. Based on these insights, we draw inspiration from recent advances in diffusion models to introduce PDE-Refiner; a novel model class that enables more accurate modeling of all frequency components via a multistep refinement process. We validate PDE-Refiner on challenging benchmarks of complex fluid dynamics, demonstrating stable and accurate rollouts that consistently outperform state-of-the-art models, including neural, numerical, and hybrid neural-numerical architectures. We further demonstrate that PDE-Refiner greatly enhances data efficiency, since the denoising objective implicitly induces a novel form of spectral data augmentation. Finally, PDE-Refiner's connection to diffusion models enables an accurate and efficient assessment of the model's predictive uncertainty, allowing us to estimate when the surrogate becomes inaccurate.Comment: Project website: https://phlippe.github.io/PDERefiner

A sediment-based reconstruction of Caribbean effective precipitation during the Little Ice Age from Freshwater Pond, Barbuda

Contemporary climate dynamics of the circum-Caribbean region are characterised by significant precipitation variability on interannual and interdecadal timescales controlled primarily by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). However, our understanding of pre-industrial climate variability in the region is hampered by the sparse geographic distribution of palaeoclimate archives. Here, we present a high-resolution reconstruction of effective precipitation for Barbuda since the mid-16th century, based on biostratigraphic and stable isotope analyses of fossil ostracods and gastropods recovered from lake sediment cores from Freshwater Pond, the only freshwater lake on the island. We interpret episodic fluctuations in shell accumulation in the sediment record to represent changes in the balance between precipitation and evaporation during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA; ~1400–1850 CE) and Industrial (1850–present) periods. Comparisons between indices of reconstructed ENSO and AMO variability, the abundance of the freshwater gastropod Pyrgophorus parvulus and the δ18O records from ostracod calcite suggest that the relative influence of ENSO and AMO on long-term rainfall patterns in Barbuda has changed over the last 400 years. Our findings are in agreement with other high-resolution palaeoclimate studies that suggest that long-term changes in effective precipitation during the LIA were much more variable, temporally and spatially, than previously suggested

Human-driven fire and vegetation dynamics on the Caribbean island of Barbuda from early indigenous to modern times

We present a multiproxy analysis of a sediment core from Freshwater Pond, Barbuda, one of just a few inland paleoenvironmental records from the Lesser Antilles. Our results shed light on the relative contributions of climate variability and Pre- and Post-Columbian human activities to vegetation and fire dynamics on Barbuda. The presence of macroscopic charcoal and pollen of ethnobotanically-useful and disturbance-indicator plant taxa in the sediment record suggests that Pre-Columbian subsistence activities occurred within a few kilometers of the pond between ~150 BCE and ~1250 CE. Our record extends anthropogenic fires back into the early Ceramic (500 BCE–1500 CE) and possibly late Archaic Ages (3000–500 BCE) adding evidence to the timing of arrival of the island’s earliest inhabitants. The history of island-wide biomass burning inferred from microscopic charcoal fragments showed heightened fire activity between ~540 and ~1610 CE followed by a period of quiescence that reflected the transition from Pre- to Post-Columbian land-use practices associated with European colonization of the region. The British established a permanent settlement on Barbuda in the 1660s, but given Barbuda’s unsuitability for large-scale agriculture, timber harvesting, small-scale farming, and livestock rearing, activities that left no detectable charcoal footprints likely dominated post-colonial land use. The lack of any clear correspondence between the reconstructed histories of fire and effective moisture at Freshwater Pond supports the idea that late-Holocene fire activity on Barbuda was driven primarily by human activit

From icon of empire to national emblem: new evidence for the fallow deer of Barbuda

Barbuda and Antigua's national animal is the fallow deer, Dama dama dama, a species native to the eastern Mediterranean that has been transported around the world by people during the last 8,000 years. The timing and circumstances by which fallow deer came to be established on Barbuda are currently uncertain but, by examining documentary, osteological and genetic evidence, this paper will consider the validity of existing theories. It will review the dynamics of human-Dama relationships from the 1500s AD to the present day and consider how the meaning attached to this species has changed through time: from a symbol of colonial authority and dominance, to a 'walking larder' after the slave emancipation of 1834, and now an important part of the island's economy and cultural heritage that requires careful management

A Coupled Electrical-Thermal-Mechanical Modeling of Gleeble Tensile Tests for Ultra-High-Strength (UHS) Steel at a High Temperature

International audienceA coupled electrical-thermal-mechanical model is proposed aimed at the numerical modeling of Gleeble tension tests at a high temperature. A multidomain, multifield coupling resolution strategy is used for the solution of electrical, energy, and momentum conservation equations by means of the finite element method. Its application to ultra-high-strength steel is considered. After calibration with instrumented experiments, numerical results reveal that significant thermal gradients prevail in Gleeble tensile steel specimen in both axial and radial directions. Such gradients lead to the heterogeneous deformation of the specimen, which is a major difficulty for simple identification techniques of constitutive parameters, based on direct estimations of strain, strain rate, and stress. The proposed direct finite element coupled model can be viewed as an important achievement for subsequent inverse identification methods, which should be used to identify constitutive parameters for steel at a high temperature in the solid state and in the mushy state

Disequilibrium, adaptation and the Norse settlement of Greenland

This research was supported by the University of Edinburgh ExEDE Doctoral Training Studentship and NSF grant numbers 1202692 and 1140106.There is increasing evidence to suggest that arctic cultures and ecosystems have followed non-linear responses to climate change. Norse Scandinavian farmers introduced agriculture to sub-arctic Greenland in the late tenth century, creating synanthropic landscapes and utilising seasonally abundant marine and terrestrial resources. Using a niche-construction framework and data from recent survey work, studies of diet, and regional-scale climate proxies we examine the potential mismatch between this imported agricultural niche and the constraints of the environment from the tenth to the fifteenth centuries. We argue that landscape modification conformed the Norse to a Scandinavian style of agriculture throughout settlement, structuring and limiting the efficacy of seasonal hunting strategies. Recent climate data provide evidence of sustained cooling from the mid thirteenth century and climate variation from the early fifteenth century. Archaeological evidence suggests that the Norse made incremental adjustments to the changing sub-arctic environment, but were limited by cultural adaptations made in past environments.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules (THYCOVID): a retrospective, international, multicentre, cross-sectional study

Background Since its outbreak in early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has diverted resources from non-urgent and elective procedures, leading to diagnosis and treatment delays, with an increased number of neoplasms at advanced stages worldwide. The aims of this study were to quantify the reduction in surgical activity for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the COVID-19 pandemic; and to evaluate whether delays in surgery led to an increased occurrence of aggressive tumours.Methods In this retrospective, international, cross-sectional study, centres were invited to participate in June 22, 2022; each centre joining the study was asked to provide data from medical records on all surgical thyroidectomies consecutively performed from Jan 1, 2019, to Dec 31, 2021. Patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules were divided into three groups according to when they underwent surgery: from Jan 1, 2019, to Feb 29, 2020 (global prepandemic phase), from March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021 (pandemic escalation phase), and from June 1 to Dec 31, 2021 (pandemic decrease phase). The main outcomes were, for each phase, the number of surgeries for indeterminate thyroid nodules, and in patients with a postoperative diagnosis of thyroid cancers, the occurrence of tumours larger than 10 mm, extrathyroidal extension, lymph node metastases, vascular invasion, distant metastases, and tumours at high risk of structural disease recurrence. Univariate analysis was used to compare the probability of aggressive thyroid features between the first and third study phases. The study was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05178186.Findings Data from 157 centres (n=49 countries) on 87 467 patients who underwent surgery for benign and malignant thyroid disease were collected, of whom 22 974 patients (18 052 [78 center dot 6%] female patients and 4922 [21 center dot 4%] male patients) received surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules. We observed a significant reduction in surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the pandemic escalation phase (median monthly surgeries per centre, 1 center dot 4 [IQR 0 center dot 6-3 center dot 4]) compared with the prepandemic phase (2 center dot 0 [0 center dot 9-3 center dot 7]; p<0 center dot 0001) and pandemic decrease phase (2 center dot 3 [1 center dot 0-5 center dot 0]; p<0 center dot 0001). Compared with the prepandemic phase, in the pandemic decrease phase we observed an increased occurrence of thyroid tumours larger than 10 mm (2554 [69 center dot 0%] of 3704 vs 1515 [71 center dot 5%] of 2119; OR 1 center dot 1 [95% CI 1 center dot 0-1 center dot 3]; p=0 center dot 042), lymph node metastases (343 [9 center dot 3%] vs 264 [12 center dot 5%]; OR 1 center dot 4 [1 center dot 2-1 center dot 7]; p=0 center dot 0001), and tumours at high risk of structural disease recurrence (203 [5 center dot 7%] of 3584 vs 155 [7 center dot 7%] of 2006; OR 1 center dot 4 [1 center dot 1-1 center dot 7]; p=0 center dot 0039).Interpretation Our study suggests that the reduction in surgical activity for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the COVID-19 pandemic period could have led to an increased occurrence of aggressive thyroid tumours. However, other compelling hypotheses, including increased selection of patients with aggressive malignancies during this period, should be considered. We suggest that surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules should no longer be postponed even in future instances of pandemic escalation.Funding None.Copyright (c) 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

The Hellenic emergency laparotomy study (HELAS): a prospective multicentre study on the outcomes of emergency laparotomy in Greece

Background Emergency laparotomy (EL) is accompanied by high post-operative morbidity and mortality which varies significantly between countries and populations. The aim of this study is to report outcomes of emergency laparotomy in Greece and to compare them with the results of the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA). Methods This is a multicentre prospective cohort study undertaken between 01.2019 and 05.2020 including consecutive patients subjected to EL in 11 Greek hospitals. EL was defined according to NELA criteria. Demographics, clinical variables, and post-operative outcomes were prospectively registered in an online database. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of post-operative mortality. Results There were 633 patients, 53.9% males, ASA class III/IV 43.6%, older than 65 years 58.6%. The most common operations were small bowel resection (20.5%), peptic ulcer repair (12.0%), adhesiolysis (11.8%) and Hartmann’s procedure (11.5%). 30-day post-operative mortality reached 16.3% and serious complications occurred in 10.9%. Factors associated with post-operative mortality were increasing age and ASA class, dependent functional status, ascites, severe sepsis, septic shock, and diabetes. HELAS cohort showed similarities with NELA patients in terms of demographics and preoperative risk. Post-operative utilisation of ICU was significantly lower in the Greek cohort (25.8% vs 56.8%) whereas 30-day post-operative mortality was significantly higher (16.3% vs 8.7%). Conclusion In this study, Greek patients experienced markedly worse mortality after emergency laparotomy compared with their British counterparts. This can be at least partly explained by underutilisation of critical care by surgical patients who are at high risk for death