The Hydrological Cycle over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM

A wide range of hydrological cycles and general circulations was simulated with an idealized general circulation model (GCM) by varying the optical thickness of the longwave absorber. While the idealized GCM does not capture the full complexity of the hydrological cycle, the wide range of climates simulated allows the systematic development and testing of theories of how precipitation and moisture transport change as the climate changes. The simulations show that the character of the response of the hydrological cycle to variations in longwave optical thickness differs in different climate regimes. The global-mean precipitation increases linearly with surface temperature for colder climates, but it asymptotically approaches a maximum at higher surface temperatures. The basic features of the precipitation–temperature relation, including the rate of increase in the linear regime, are reproduced in radiative–convective equilibrium simulations. Energy constraints partially account for the precipitation–temperature relation but are not quantitatively accurate. Large-scale condensation is most important in the midlatitude storm tracks, and its behavior is accounted for using a stochastic model of moisture advection and condensation. The precipitation associated with large-scale condensation does not scale with mean specific humidity, partly because the condensation region moves upward and meridionally as the climate warms, and partly because the mean condensation rate depends on isentropic specific humidity gradients, which do not scale with the specific humidity itself. The local water vapor budget relates local precipitation to evaporation and meridional moisture fluxes, whose scaling in the subtropics and extratropics is examined. A delicate balance between opposing changes in evaporation and moisture flux divergence holds in the subtropical dry zones. The extratropical precipitation maximum follows the storm track in warm climates but lies equatorward of the storm track in cold climates

Stochastic Models for the Kinematics of Moisture Transport and Condensation in Homogeneous Turbulent Flows

The transport of a condensing passive scalar is studied as a prototype model for the kinematics of moisture transport on isentropic surfaces. Condensation occurs whenever the scalar concentration exceeds a specified local saturation value. Since condensation rates are strongly nonlinear functions of moisture content, the mean moisture flux is generally not diffusive. To relate the mean moisture content, mean condensation rate, and mean moisture flux to statistics of the advecting velocity field, a one-dimensional stochastic model is developed in which the Lagrangian velocities of air parcels are independent Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (Gaussian colored noise) processes. The mean moisture evolution equation for the stochastic model is derived in the Brownian and ballistic limits of small and large Lagrangian velocity correlation time. The evolution equation involves expressions for the mean moisture flux and mean condensation rate that are nonlocal but remarkably simple. In a series of simulations of homogeneous two-dimensional turbulence, the dependence of mean moisture flux and mean condensation rate on mean saturation deficit is shown to be reproducible by the one-dimensional stochastic model, provided eddy length and time scales are taken as given. For nonzero Lagrangian velocity correlation times, condensation reduces the mean moisture flux for a given mean moisture gradient compared with the mean flux of a noncondensing scalar

Moist Convection and the Thermal Stratification of the Extratropical Troposphere

Simulations with an aquaplanet general circulation model show that sensible and latent heat transport by large-scale eddies influences the extratropical thermal stratification over a wide range of climates, even in relatively warm climates with small meridional surface temperature gradients. Variations of the lapse rate toward which the parameterized moist convection in the model relaxes atmospheric temperature profiles demonstrate that the convective lapse rate only marginally affects the extratropical thermal stratification in Earth-like and colder climates. In warmer climates, the convective lapse rate does affect the extratropical thermal stratification, but the effect is still smaller than would be expected if moist convection alone controlled the thermal stratification. A theory for how large-scale eddies modify the thermal stratification of dry atmospheres is consistent with the simulation results for colder climates. For warmer and moister climates, however, theories and heuristics that have been proposed to account for the extratropical thermal stratification are not consistent with the simulation results. Theories for the extratropical thermal stratification will generally have to take transport of sensible and latent heat by large-scale eddies into account, but moist convection may only need to be taken into account regionally and in sufficiently warm climates

Weather-Layer Dynamics of Baroclinic Eddies and Multiple Jets in an Idealized General Circulation Model

The general circulation and the behavior of multiple jets and baroclinic eddies are described for an atmosphere in which meridional potential temperature gradients and eddies are confined to a weather layer. The weather layer is separated from the frictional lower boundary by a statically stable barotropic layer with significant mass. Closure of the zonal momentum budget in the resulting circulation is achieved through ageostrophic meridional cells that extend to the lower boundary, at which momentum is dissipated. In a series of simulations with a multilevel primitive equation model, dynamic changes in the static stability of the weather layer are found to be critical in determining the scaling of the baroclinic eddies, an effect not captured in quasigeostrophic models. For simulations with a single jet in each hemisphere, the static stability of the weather layer adjusts so that a significant inverse energy cascade to scales larger than the Rossby deformation radius does not occur. The eddy length is found to scale with both the Rossby deformation radius and the Rhines scale. Simulations with larger planetary radii and low pole-to-equator temperature gradients exhibit multiple jets in each hemisphere. Eddy lengths and energies for the jet nearest the equator in each hemisphere have the same scaling as those in the single-jet simulations. Similar scalings are found for jets farther poleward but with different constants of proportionality that are consistent with more supercritical eddies. The local eddy length is found to have only a weak variation with latitude, and the local meridional jet spacing is found to scale with the local eddy length in all cases. Insights from the weather-layer simulations may be relevant to circulations in gas giant planets and the ocean

Modelling International Bond Markets with Affine Term Structure Models

This paper investigates the performance of international affine term structure models (ATSMs) that are driven by a mutual set of global state variables. We discuss which mixture of Gaussian and square root processes is best suited for modelling international bond markets. We derive necessary conditions for the correlation and volatility structure of mixture models to accommodate various empirical stylized facts such as the forward premium puzzle and differently shaped yield curves. Using UK-US data we estimate international ATSMs taking into account the joint transition density of yields and exchange rates without assuming normality. We find strong empirical evidence for negatively correlated global factors in international bond markets. Further, the empirical results do not support the existence of local factors in the UK-US setting, suggesting that diversification benefits from holding currency- hedged bond portfolios in these markets are likely to be small. Altogether, we find that mixture models greatly enhance the performance of ATSMs.International affine term structure models, Estimation, Exchange rate, Model Selection

Marine Protected Areas in Canada with a Particular Emphasis on Newfoundland: Science, Policy and Implementation at Multiple Institutional Levels

The primary goal of Marine Protected Areas is to conserve and protect part or all of a marine environment through legal or other effective means. MPAs are a global phenomenon that has become part of national level ocean policy and practice in such nations as Australia, Canada, and the US. Marine protected areas depend, for their success, on the development of an informal network of local policy and practice, which varies among communities. They succeed in circumstances where national policy or legal precedent does not dissolve local policy and practice, and where national policy facilitates and can accommodate local arrangements. The collapse of fisheries in the late 20th century in Canada provided the political impetus and policy framework that increased the capacity of the federal government to accommodate local arrangements in marine waters through Canada’s Oceans Act 1996. Two Marine Protected Areas, at Eastport and Gilbert Bay, were designated in Newfoundland and Labrador in 2005 under the Oceans Act, and a third, at Leading Tickles, is in the development stage. Eastport has a research program on lobsters in place, Gilbert Bay has a program on ‘golden cod’, but no research program existed at Leading Tickles. DFO Oceans began to collect data and worked closely with community members to develop research priorities, carry out research projects and develop management programs for each MPA. The provincial government was involved as members of the MPA steering committees, and local representatives provided input. Based on the political momentum for Marine Protected Areas, the second objective of this project was to identify internationally significant science questions for research within Newfoundland and Labrador. Recent research conducted by Memorial University at the Gilbert Bay and Eastport MPAs and the Leading Tickles Area of Interest (AOI) has been a mixture of descriptive and causal science directed at local issues arising within each of the three locations (two MPAs and one AOI). Past research helped to define the scope of some of the science problems in an informal way. This report takes the next step, which is to identify questions significant to both local issues and the understanding of coastal ecosystems by the national and international science community. Sound scientific evidence is needed to identify whether the intended effects are being achieved and to document accompanying effects. The emerging practice is initial science input followed by devolution of monitoring activities to local communities, with guidance from academic scientists. The effectiveness of these scientists would be increased by national initiatives to develop the capacity to guide locally based monitoring efforts. One potential model for science guidance is that used for environmental impact assessment, where monitoring activities are designed as tests of hypotheses concerning effects stated in an impact assessment