A portfolio of powertrains for the UK: An energy systems analysis

AbstractThere has recently been a concerted effort to commence a transition to fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in Europe. A coalition of companies released an influential McKinsey-coordinated report in 2010, which concluded that FCVs are ready for commercial deployment. Public–private H2Mobility programmes have subsequently been established across Europe to develop business cases for the introduction of FCVs. In this paper, we examine the conclusions of these studies from an energy systems perspective, using the UK as a case study. Other UK energy system studies have identified only a minor role for FCVs, after 2030, but we reconcile these views by showing that the differences are primarily driven by different data assumptions rather than methodological differences. Some energy system models do not start a transition to FCVs until around 2040 as they do not account for the time normally taken for the diffusion of new powertrains. We show that applying dynamic growth constraints to the UK MARKAL energy system model more realistically represents insights from innovation theory. We conclude that the optimum deployment of FCVs, from an energy systems perspective, is broadly in line with the roadmap developed by UK H2Mobility and that a transition needs to commence soon if FCVs are to become widespread by 2050

Characterising the Evolution of Energy System Models Using Model Archaeology

In common with other types of complex models, energy system models have opaque structures, making it difficult to understand both changes between model versions and the extent of changes described in research papers. In this paper, we develop the principle of model archaeology as a formal method to quantitatively examine the balance and evolution of energy system models, through the ex post analysis of both model inputs and outputs using a series of metrics. These metrics help us to understand how models are developed and used and are a powerful tool for effectively targeting future model improvements. The usefulness of model archaeology is demonstrated in a case study examining the UK MARKAL model. We show how model development has been influenced by the interests of the UK government and the research projects funding model development. Despite these influences, there is clear evidence of a strategy to balance model complexity and accuracy when changes are made. We identify some important long-term trends including higher technology capital costs in subsequent model versions. Finally, we discuss how model archaeology can improve the transparency of research model studies. © 2014 The Author(s)

The role of natural gas in setting electricity prices in Europe

The EU energy and climate policy revolves around enhancing energy security and affordability, while reducing the environmental impacts of energy use. The European energy transition has been at the centre of debate following the post-pandemic surge in power prices in 2021 and the energy crisis following the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. Understanding the extent to which electricity prices depend on fossil fuel prices (specifically natural gas) is key to guiding the future of energy policy in Europe. To this end, we quantify the role of fossil-fuelled vs. low-carbon electricity generation in setting wholesale electricity prices in each EU-27 country plus Great Britain (GB) and Norway during 2015-2021. We apply econometric analysis and use sub/hourly power system data to estimate the marginal share of each electricity generation type. The results show that fossil fuel-based power plants set electricity prices in Europe at approximately 58% of the time (natural gas 39%) while generating only 34% of electricity (natural gas 18%) a year. The energy transition has made natural gas the main electricity price setter in Europe, with gas determining electricity prices for more than 80% of the hours in 2021 in several countries such as Belgium, GB, Greece, Italy, and the Netherlands. Hence, Europe’s electricity markets are highly exposed to the geopolitical risk of gas supply and natural gas price volatility, and the economic risk of currency exchange

Framing policy on low emissions vehicles in terms of economic gains : might the most straightforward gain be delivered by supply chain activity to support refuelling?

The work reported here is a result of the EPSRC Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Research Hub research programme (Grant ref. EP/J016454/1).A core theme of the UK Government's new Industrial Strategy is exploiting opportunities for domestic supply chain development. This extends to a special ‘Automotive Sector Deal’ that focuses on the shift to low emissions vehicles (LEVs). Here attention is on electric vehicle and battery production and innovation. In this paper, we argue that a more straightforward gain in terms of framing policy around potential economic benefits may be made through supply chain activity to support refuelling of battery/hydrogen vehicles. We set this in the context of LEV refuelling supply chains potentially replicating the strength of domestic upstream linkages observed in the UK electricity and/or gas industries. We use input-output multiplier analysis to deconstruct and assess the structure of these supply chains relative to that of more import-intensive petrol and diesel supply. A crucial multiplier result is that for every £1million of spending on electricity (or gas), 8 full-time equivalent jobs are supported throughout the UK. This compares to less than 3 in the case of petrol/diesel supply. Moreover, the importance of service industries becomes apparent, with 67% of indirect and induced supply chain employment to support electricity generation being located in services industries. The comparable figure for GDP is 42%.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Improvements in fabrication of metallic fuels

Argonne National Laboratory is currently developing a new liquid- metal cooled breeder reactor known as the Integral Fast Reactor (IFR). IFR fuels represent the state-of-the-art in metal-fueled reactor technology. Improvements in the fabrication of metal fuel, to be discussed below, will support the fully remote fuel cycle facility that as an integral part of the IFR concept will be demonstrated at the EBR-II site. 3 refs

Bringing value to the chemical industry from capture, storage and use of CO2: A dynamic LCA of formic acid production

Low carbon options for the chemical industry include switching from fossil to renewable energy, adopting new low-carbon production processes, along with retrofitting current plants with carbon capture for ulterior use (CCU technologies) or storage (CCS). In this paper, we combine a dynamic Life Cycle Assessment (d-LCA) with economic analysis to explore a potential transition to low-carbon manufacture of formic acid. We propose new methods to enable early technical, environmental and economic assessment of formic acid manufacture by electrochemical reduction of CO2 (CCU), and compare this production route to the conventional synthesis pathways and to storing CO2 in geological storage (CCS). Both CCU and CCS reduce carbon emissions in particular scenarios, although the uncertainty in results suggests that further research and scale-up validation are needed to clarify the relative emission reduction compared to conventional process pathways. There are trade-offs between resource security, cost and emissions between CCU and CCS systems. As expected, the CCS technology yields greater reductions in CO2 emissions than the CCU scenarios and the conventional processes. However, compared to CCS systems, CCU has better economic potential and lower fossil consumption, especially when powered by renewable electricity. The integration of renewable energy in the chemical industry has an important climate mitigation role, especially for processes with high electrical and thermal energy demands.The authors are grateful for the funding of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the Projects CTM2016-76176-C2-1-R (AEI/FEDER, UE) and CTQ2016-76231-C2-1-R (AEI/FEDER, UE). The UCL team would like to acknowledge funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council through the project Comparative assessment and region-specific optimisation of GGR, NERC Reference: NE/P019900/1. Rubén Aldaco thanks the Ministry of Sciences, Innovation and Universities of Spanish Government for their financial support via the research fellowship Salvador de Madariaga Program (PRX18/00027)

Comment on "How green is blue hydrogen?"

This paper is written in response to the paper “How green is blue hydrogen?” by R. W. Howarth and M. Z. Jacobson. It aims at highlighting and discussing the method and assumptions of that paper, and thereby providing a more balanced perspective on blue hydrogen, which is in line with current best available practices and future plant specifications aiming at low CO2 emissions. More specifically, in this paper, we show that: (i) the simplified method that Howarth and Jacobson used to compute the energy balance of blue hydrogen plants leads to significant overestimation of CO2 emissions and natural gas (NG) consumption and (ii) the assumed methane leakage rate is at the high end of the estimated emissions from current NG production in the United States and cannot be considered representative of all-NG and blue hydrogen value chains globally. By starting from the detailed and rigorously calculated mass and energy balances of two blue hydrogen plants in the literature, we show the impact that methane leakage rate has on the equivalent CO2 emissions of blue hydrogen. On the basis of our analysis, we show that it is possible for blue hydrogen to have significantly lower equivalent CO2 emissions than the direct use of NG, provided that hydrogen production processes and CO2 capture technologies are implemented that ensure a high CO2 capture rate, preferably above 90%, and a low-emission NG supply chain

Genome Analyses of an Aggressive and Invasive Lineage of the Irish Potato Famine Pathogen

Pest and pathogen losses jeopardise global food security and ever since the 19th century Irish famine, potato late blight has exemplified this threat. The causal oomycete pathogen, Phytophthora infestans, undergoes major population shifts in agricultural systems via the successive emergence and migration of asexual lineages. The phenotypic and genotypic bases of these selective sweeps are largely unknown but management strategies need to adapt to reflect the changing pathogen population. Here, we used molecular markers to document the emergence of a lineage, termed 13_A2, in the European P. infestans population, and its rapid displacement of other lineages to exceed 75% of the pathogen population across Great Britain in less than three years. We show that isolates of the 13_A2 lineage are among the most aggressive on cultivated potatoes, outcompete other aggressive lineages in the field, and overcome previously effective forms of plant host resistance. Genome analyses of a 13_A2 isolate revealed extensive genetic and expression polymorphisms particularly in effector genes. Copy number variations, gene gains and losses, amino-acid replacements and changes in expression patterns of disease effector genes within the 13_A2 isolate likely contribute to enhanced virulence and aggressiveness to drive this population displacement. Importantly, 13_A2 isolates carry intact and in planta induced Avrblb1, Avrblb2 and Avrvnt1 effector genes that trigger resistance in potato lines carrying the corresponding R immune receptor genes Rpi-blb1, Rpi-blb2, and Rpi-vnt1.1. These findings point towards a strategy for deploying genetic resistance to mitigate the impact of the 13_A2 lineage and illustrate how pathogen population monitoring, combined with genome analysis, informs the management of devastating disease epidemic

Cell salvage and donor blood transfusion during cesarean section: A pragmatic, multicentre randomised controlled trial (SALVO)

BACKGROUND: Excessive haemorrhage at cesarean section requires donor (allogeneic) blood transfusion. Cell salvage may reduce this requirement. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a pragmatic randomised controlled trial (at 26 obstetric units; participants recruited from 4 June 2013 to 17 April 2016) of routine cell salvage use (intervention) versus current standard of care without routine salvage use (control) in cesarean section among women at risk of haemorrhage. Randomisation was stratified, using random permuted blocks of variable sizes. In an intention-to-treat analysis, we used multivariable models, adjusting for stratification variables and prognostic factors identified a priori, to compare rates of donor blood transfusion (primary outcome) and fetomaternal haemorrhage ≥2 ml in RhD-negative women with RhD-positive babies (a secondary outcome) between groups. Among 3,028 women randomised (2,990 analysed), 95.6% of 1,498 assigned to intervention had cell salvage deployed (50.8% had salvaged blood returned; mean 259.9 ml) versus 3.9% of 1,492 assigned to control. Donor blood transfusion rate was 3.5% in the control group versus 2.5% in the intervention group (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42 to 1.01, p = 0.056; adjusted risk difference -1.03, 95% CI -2.13 to 0.06). In a planned subgroup analysis, the transfusion rate was 4.6% in women assigned to control versus 3.0% in the intervention group among emergency cesareans (adjusted OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.99), whereas it was 2.2% versus 1.8% among elective cesareans (adjusted OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.83) (interaction p = 0.46). No case of amniotic fluid embolism was observed. The rate of fetomaternal haemorrhage was higher with the intervention (10.5% in the control group versus 25.6% in the intervention group, adjusted OR 5.63, 95% CI 1.43 to 22.14, p = 0.013). We are unable to comment on long-term antibody sensitisation effects. CONCLUSIONS: The overall reduction observed in donor blood transfusion associated with the routine use of cell salvage during cesarean section was not statistically significant. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was prospectively registered on ISRCTN as trial number 66118656 and can be viewed on http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN66118656