A Good Man Always Knows His Limitations : Overconfidence in Criminal Offending

Traditional criminological research in the area of rational choice and crime decisions places a strong emphasis on offenders’ perceptions of risk associated with various crimes. Yet, this literature has thus far generally neglected the role of individual overconfidence in both the formation of subjective risk perceptions and the association between risk and crime. In other types of high risk behaviors which serve as analogs to crime, including stock trading and uncertain business and investment decisions, overconfidence is shown to have a stimulating effect on an individuals’ willingness to engage in these behaviors. Using data from two separate samples, this paper explores the prevalence of overconfidence in offending risk perceptions for a variety of crime types, and, in one sample serious offending juveniles, attempts to link overconfidence to a higher likelihood of offending. Our results show that overconfidence is both highly prevalent in risk perceptions across samples, and it is highly associated with higher rates of offending, even when controlling for risk. We also outline several theoretical issues for future research on this topic, including its relationship to self-serving bias and Bayesian updating

Tracing groundwater salinization processes in coastal aquifers: a hydrogeochemical and isotopic approach in Na-Cl brackish waters of north-western Sardinia, Italy

Abstract. Throughout the Mediterranean, salinization threatens water quality, especially in coastal areas. This salinization is the result of concomitant processes related to both seawater intrusion and water–rock interaction, which in some cases are virtually indistinguishable. In the Nurra region of northwestern Sardinia, recent salinization related to marine water intrusion has been caused by aquifer exploitation. However, the geology of this region records a long history from the Palaeozoic to the Quaternary, and is structurally complex and comprises a wide variety of lithologies, including Triassic evaporites. Determining the origin of the saline component of the Jurassic and Triassic aquifers in the Nurra region may provide a useful and more general model for salinization processes in the Mediterranean area, where the occurrence of evaporitic rocks in coastal aquifers is a common feature. In addition, due to intensive human activity and recent climatic change, the Nurra has become vulnerable to desertification and, in common with other Mediterranean islands, surface water resources periodically suffer from severe shortages. With this in mind, we report new data regarding brackish and surface waters (outcrop and lake samples) of the Na-Cl type from the Nurra region, including major ions and selected trace elements (B, Br, I, and Sr), in addition to isotopic data including δ18O, δD in water, and δ34S and δ18O in dissolved SO4. To identify the origin of the salinity more precisely, we also analysed the mineralogical and isotopic composition of Triassic evaporites. The brackish waters have Cl contents of up to 2025 mg L−1 , and the ratios between dissolved ions and Cl, with the exception of the Br / Cl ratio, are not those expected on the basis of simple mixing between rainwater and seawater. The δ18O and δD data indicate that most of the waters fall between the regional meteoric water line and the global meteoric water line, supporting the conclusion that they are meteoric in origin. A significant consequence of the meteoric origin of the Na-Cl-type water studied here is that the Br / Cl ratio, extensively used to assess the origin of salinity in fresh water, should be used with care in carbonate aquifers that are near the coast. Overall, δ34S and δ18O levels in dissolved SO4 suggest that water–rock interaction is responsible for the Na-Cl brackish composition of the water hosted by the Jurassic and Triassic aquifers of the Nurra, and this is consistent with the geology and lithological features of the study area. Evaporite dissolution may also explain the high Cl content, as halite was detected within the gypsum deposits. Finally, these Na-Cl brackish waters are undersaturated with respect to the more soluble salts, implying that in a climate evolving toward semi-arid conditions, the salinization process could intensify dramatically in the near future

Economics of One Health: Costs and benefits of integrated West Nile virus surveillance in Emilia-Romagna

Since 2013 in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, surveillance information generated in the public health and in the animal health sectors has been shared and used to guide public health interventions to mitigate the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission via blood transfusion. The objective of the current study was to identify and estimate the costs and benefits associated with this One Health surveillance approach, and to compare it to an approach that does not integrate animal health information in blood donations safety policy (uni-sectoral scenario). Costs of human, animal, and entomological surveillance, sharing of information, and triggered interventions were estimated. Benefits were quantified as the averted costs of potential human cases of WNV neuroinvasive disease associated to infected blood transfusion. In the 2009–2015 period, the One Health approach was estimated to represent a cost saving of €160,921 compared to the uni-sectoral scenario. Blood donation screening was the main cost for both scenarios. The One Health approach further allowed savings of €1.21 million in terms of avoided tests on blood units. Benefits of the One Health approach due to short-term costs of hospitalization and compensation for transfusion-associated disease potentially avoided, were estimated to range from €0 to €2.98 million according to the probability of developing WNV neuroinvasive disease after receiving an infected blood transfusion