A multiscale model to predict current absolute risk of femoral fracture in a postmenopausal population

Osteoporotic hip fractures are a major healthcare problem. Fall severity and bone strength are important risk factors of hip fracture. This study aims to obtain a mechanistic explanation for fracture risk in dependence of these risk factors. A novel modelling approach is developed that combines models at different scales to overcome the challenge of a large space–time domain of interest and considers the variability of impact forces between potential falls in a subject. The multiscale model and its component models are verified with respect to numerical approximations made therein, the propagation of measurement uncertainties of model inputs is quantified, and model predictions are validated against experimental and clinical data. The main results are model predicted absolute risk of current fracture (ARF0) that ranged from 1.93 to 81.6% (median 36.1%) for subjects in a retrospective cohort of 98 postmenopausal British women (49 fracture cases and 49 controls); ARF0 was computed up to a precision of 1.92 percentage points (pp) due to numerical approximations made in the model; ARF0 possessed an uncertainty of 4.00 pp due to uncertainties in measuring model inputs; ARF0 classified observed fracture status in the above cohort with AUC = 0.852 (95% CI 0.753–0.918), 77.6% specificity (95% CI 63.4–86.5%) and 81.6% sensitivity (95% CI 68.3–91.1%). These results demonstrate that ARF0 can be computed using the model with sufficient precision to distinguish between subjects and that the novel mechanism of fracture risk determination based on fall dynamics, hip impact and bone strength can be considered validated

Radiofrequency echographic multi-spectrometry for the in-vivo assessment of bone strength: state of the art-outcomes of an expert consensus meeting organized by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO)

PURPOSE: The purpose of this paper was to review the available approaches for bone strength assessment, osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture risk prediction, and to provide insights into radiofrequency echographic multi spectrometry (REMS), a non-ionizing axial skeleton technique. METHODS: A working group convened by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis met to review the current image-based methods for bone strength assessment and fracture risk estimation, and to discuss the clinical perspectives of REMS. RESULTS: Areal bone mineral density (BMD) measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the consolidated indicator for osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture risk assessment. A more reliable fracture risk estimation would actually require an improved assessment of bone strength, integrating also bone quality information. Several different approaches have been proposed, including additional DXA-based parameters, quantitative computed tomography, and quantitative ultrasound. Although each of them showed a somewhat improved clinical performance, none satisfied all the requirements for a widespread routine employment, which was typically hindered by unclear clinical usefulness, radiation doses, limited accessibility, or inapplicability to spine and hip, therefore leaving several clinical needs still unmet. REMS is a clinically available technology for osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture risk assessment through the estimation of BMD on the axial skeleton reference sites. Its automatic processing of unfiltered ultrasound signals provides accurate BMD values in view of fracture risk assessment. CONCLUSIONS: New approaches for improved bone strength and fracture risk estimations are needed for a better management of osteoporotic patients. In this context, REMS represents a valuable approach for osteoporosis diagnosis and fracture risk prediction