Heterogeneous Unit Clustering for Efficient Operational Flexibility Modeling for Strategic Models

The increasing penetration of wind generation has led to significant improvements in unit commitment models. However, long-term capacity planning methods have not been similarly modified to address the challenges of a system with a large fraction of generation from variable sources. Designing future capacity mixes with adequate flexibility requires an embedded approximation of the unit commitment problem to capture operating constraints. Here we propose a method, based on clustering units, for a simplified unit commitment model with dramatic improvements in solution time that enable its use as a submodel within a capacity expansion framework. Heterogeneous clustering speeds computation by aggregating similar but non-identical units thereby replacing large numbers of binary commitment variables with fewer integers that still capture individual unit decisions and constraints. We demonstrate the trade-off between accuracy and run-time for different levels of aggregation. A numeric example using an ERCOT-based 205-unit system illustrates that careful aggregation introduces errors of 0.05-0.9% across several metrics while providing several orders of magnitude faster solution times (400x) compared to traditional binary formulations and further aggregation increases errors slightly (~2x) with further speedup (2000x). We also compare other simplifications that can provide an additional order of magnitude speed-up for some problems

Incorporating operational flexibility into electric generation planning : impacts and methods for system design and policy analysis

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2013.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 253-272).This dissertation demonstrates how flexibility in hourly electricity operations can impact long-term planning and analysis for future power systems, particularly those with substantial variable renewables (e.g., wind) or strict carbon policies. Operational flexibility describes a power system's ability to respond to predictable and unexpected changes in generation or demand. Planning and policy models have traditionally not directly captured the technical operating constraints that determine operational flexibility. However, as demonstrated in this dissertation, this capability becomes increasingly important with the greater flexibility required by significant renewables (>=20%) and the decreased flexibility inherent in some low-carbon generation technologies. Incorporating flexibility can significantly change optimal generation and energy mixes, lower system costs, improve policy impact estimates, and enable system designs capable of meeting strict regulatory targets. Methodologically, this work presents a new clustered formulation that tractably combines a range of normally distinct power system models, from hourly unit-commitment operations to long-term generation planning. This formulation groups similar generators into clusters to reduce problem size, while still retaining the individual unit constraints required to accurately capture operating reserves and other flexibility drivers. In comparisons against traditional unit commitment formulations, errors were generally less than 1% while run times decreased by several orders of magnitude (e.g., 5000x). Extensive numeric simulations, using a realistic Texas-based power system show that ignoring flexibility can underestimate carbon emissions by 50% or result in significant load and wind shedding to meet environmental regulations. Contributions of this dissertation include: 1. Demonstrating that operational flexibility can have an important impact on power system planning, and describing when and how these impacts occur; 2. Demonstrating that a failure to account for operational flexibility can result in undesirable outcomes for both utility planners and policy analysts; and 3. Extending the state of the art for electric power system models by introducing a tractable method for incorporating unit commitment based operational flexibility at full 8760 hourly resolution directly into planning optimization. Together these results encourage and offer a new flexibility-aware approach for capacity planning and accompanying policy design that can enable cleaner, less expensive electric power systems for the future.by Bryan S. Palmintier.Ph.D