The link between volcanism and plutonism in epizonal magma systems; high-precision U–Pb zircon geochronology from the Organ Mountains caldera and batholith, New Mexico

The Organ Mountains caldera and batholith expose the volcanic and epizonal plutonic record of an Eocene caldera complex. The caldera and batholith are well exposed, and extensive previous mapping and geochemical analyses have suggested a clear link between the volcanic and plutonic sections, making this an ideal location to study magmatic processes associated with caldera volcanism. Here we present high-precision thermal ionization mass spectrometry U–Pb zircon dates from throughout the caldera and batholith, and use these dates to test and improve existing petrogenetic models. The new dates indicate that Eocene volcanic and plutonic rocks in the Organ Mountains formed from ~44 to 34 Ma. The three largest caldera-related tuff units yielded weighted mean [superscript 206]Pb/[superscript 238]U dates of 36.441 ± 0.020 Ma (Cueva Tuff), 36.259 ± 0.016 Ma (Achenback Park tuff), and 36.215 ± 0.016 Ma (Squaw Mountain tuff). An alkali feldspar granite, which is chemically similar to the erupted tuffs, yielded a synchronous weighted mean [superscript 206]Pb/[superscript 238]U date of 36.259 ± 0.021 Ma. Weighted mean [superscript 206]Pb/[superscript 238]U dates from the larger volume syenitic phase of the underlying Organ Needle pluton range from 36.130 ± 0.031 to 36.071 ± 0.012 Ma, and the youngest sample is 144 ± 20 to 188 ± 20 ka younger than the Squaw Mountain and Achenback Park tuffs, respectively. Younger plutonism in the batholith continued through at least 34.051 ± 0.029 Ma. We propose that the Achenback Park tuff, Squaw Mountain tuff, alkali feldspar granite and Organ Needle pluton formed from a single, long-lived magma chamber/mush zone. Early silicic magmas generated by partial melting of the lower crust rose to form an epizonal magma chamber. Underplating of the resulting mush zone led to partial melting and generation of a high-silica alkali feldspar granite cap, which erupted to form the tuffs. The deeper parts of the chamber underwent continued recharge and crystallization for 144 ± 20 ka after the final eruption. Calculated magmatic fluxes for the Organ Needle pluton range from 0.0006 to 0.0030 km3/year, in agreement with estimates from other well-studied plutons. The petrogenetic evolution proposed here may be common to many small-volume silicic volcanic systems

Mixing of rhyolite, trachyte and basalt magma erupted from a vertically and laterally zoned reservoir, composite flow P1, Gran Canaria

The 14.1 Ma composite welded ignimbrite P1 (45 km3 DRE) on Gran Canaria is compositionally zoned from a felsic lower part to a basaltic top. It is composed of four component magmas mixed in vertically varying proportions: (1) Na-rhyolite (10 km3) zoned from crystal-poor to highly phyric; (2) a continuously zoned, evolved trachyte to sodic trachyandesite magma group (6 km3); (3) a minor fraction of Na-poor trachyandesite (<1 km3); and (4) nearly aphyric basalt (26 km3) zoned from 4.3 to 5.2 wt% MgO. We distinguish three sites and phases of mixing: (a) Mutual mineral inclusions show that mixing between trachytic and rhyolitic magmas occurred during early stages of their intratelluric crystallization, providing evidence for long-term residence in a common reservoir prior to eruption. This first phase of mixing was retarded by increasing viscosity of the rhyolite magma upon massive anorthoclase precipitation and accumulation. (b) All component magmas probably erupted through a ring-fissure from a common upper-crustal reservoir into which the basalt intruded during eruption. The second phase of mixing occurred during simultaneous withdrawal of magmas from the chamber and ascent through the conduit. The overall withdrawal and mixing pattern evolved in response to pre-eruptive chamber zonation and density and viscosity relationships among the magmas. Minor sectorial variations around the caldera reflect both varying configurations at the conduit entrance and unsteady discharge. (c) During each eruptive pulse, fragmentation and particulate transport in the vent and as pyroclastic flows caused additional mixing by reducing the length scale of heterogeneities. Based on considerations of magma density changes during crystallization, magma temperature constraints, and the pattern of withdrawal during eruption, we propose that eruption tapped the P1 magma chamber during a transient state of concentric zonation, which had resulted from destruction of a formerly layered zonation in order to maintain gravitational equilibrium. Our model of magma chamber zonation at the time of eruption envisages a basal high-density Na-poor trachyandesite layer that was overlain by a central mass of highly phyric rhyolite magma mantled by a sheath of vertically zoned trachyte-trachyandesite magma along the chamber walls. A conventional model of vertically stacked horizontal layers cannot account for the deduced density relationships nor for the withdrawal pattern

The infrastructural power of the military: The geoeconomic role of the US Army Corps of Engineers in the Arabian Peninsula

In analysing the role of the US in the global expansion of capitalist relations, most critical accounts see the US military’s invasion and conquest of various states as paving the way for the arrival of US businesses and capitalist relations. However, beyond this somewhat simplified image, and even in peacetime, the US military has been a major geoeconomic actor that has wielded its infrastructural power via its US Army Corps of Engineers’ overseas activities. The transformation of global economies in the 20th century has depended on the capitalisation of the newly independent states and the consolidation of liberal capitalist relations in the subsequent decades. The US Army Corps of Engineers has not only extended lucrative contracts to private firms (based not only in the US and host country, but also in geopolitically allied states), but also, and perhaps most important, has itself established a grammar of capitalist relations. It has done so by forging both physical infrastructures (roads, ports, utilities and telecommunications infrastructures) and virtual capitalist infrastructures through its practices of contracting, purchasing, design, accounting, regulatory processes and specific regimes of labour and private property ownership

DEFORMATION and RUPTURE of the OCEANIC CRUST MAY CONTROL GROWTH of HAWAIIAN VOLCANOES

Hawaiian volcanoes are formed by the eruption of large quantities of basaltic magma related to hot- spot activity below the Pacific Plate(1,2). Despite the apparent simplicity of the parent process emission of magma onto the oceanic crust - the resulting edifices display some topographic complexity(3-5). Certain features, such as rift zones and large flank slides, are common to all Hawaiian volcanoes, indicating similarities in their genesis; however, the underlying mechanism controlling this process remains unknown(6,7). Here we use seismological investigations and finite-element mechanical modelling to show that the load exerted by large Hawaiian volcanoes can be sufficient to rupture the oceanic crust. This intense deformation, combined with the accelerated subsidence of the oceanic crust and the weakness of the volcanic edifice/ oceanic crust interface, may control the surface morphology of Hawaiian volcanoes, especially the existence of their giant flank instabilities(8-10). Further studies are needed to determine whether such processes occur in other active intraplate volcanoes

Post-supereruption recovery at Toba Caldera

Large calderas, or supervolcanoes, are sites of the most catastrophic and hazardous events on Earth, yet the temporal details of post-supereruption activity, or resurgence, remain largely unknown, limiting our ability to understand how supervolcanoes work and address their hazards. Toba Caldera, Indonesia, caused the greatest volcanic catastrophe of the last 100 kyr, climactically erupting ~74 ka. Since the supereruption, Toba has been in a state of resurgence but its magmatic and uplift history has remained unclear. Here we reveal that new 14 C, zircon U-Th crystallization and (U-Th)/He ages show resurgence commenced at 69.7±4.5 ka and continued until at least ~2.7 ka, progressing westward across the caldera, as reflected by post-caldera effusive lava eruptions and uplifted lake sediment. The major stratovolcano north of Toba, Sinabung, shows strong geochemical kinship with Toba, and zircons from recent eruption products suggest Toba's climactic magma reservoir extends beneath Sinabung and is being tapped during eruptions

Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions. METHODS: We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London). FINDINGS: 74 944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31 924 (43·2%) of 73 948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal-external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66 705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [-0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than any other reproducible prognostic model. INTERPRETATION: The 4C Deterioration model has strong potential for clinical utility and generalisability to predict clinical deterioration and inform decision making among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London

The Ecology of Antibiotic Use in the ICU: Homogeneous Prescribing of Cefepime but Not Tazocin Selects for Antibiotic Resistant Infection

Background: Antibiotic homogeneity is thought to drive resistance but in vivo data are lacking. In this study, we determined the impact of antibiotic homogeneity per se, and of cefepime versus antipseudomonal penicillin/beta-lactamase inhibitor combinations (APP-beta), on the likelihood of infection or colonisation with antibiotic resistant bacteria and/or two commonly resistant nosocomial pathogens (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa). A secondary question was whether antibiotic cycling was associated with adverse outcomes including mortality, length of stay, and antibiotic resistance

Is the onset of disabling chronic conditions in later childhood associated with exposure to social disadvantage in earlier childhood? a prospective cohort study using the ONS Longitudinal Study for England and Wales

Background: The aetiology of disabling chronic conditions in childhood in high income countries is not fully understood, particularly the association with socio-economic status (SES). Very few studies have used longitudinal datasets to examine whether exposure to social disadvantage in early childhood increases the risk of developing chronic conditions in later childhood. Here we examine this association, and its temporal ordering, with onset of all-cause disabling chronic later childhood in children reported as free from disability in early childhood. Methods: The study comprised a prospective cohort study, using data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONSLS) for England and Wales. The study sample included 52,839 children with complete data born between 1981–1991 with no disabling chronic condition/s in 1991. Index cases were children with disability recorded in 2001. Comparison cases were children with no recorded disability in 1991. A socio-economic disadvantage index (SDI) was constructed from data on social class, housing tenure and car/van access. Associations were explored with logistic regression modelling controlling sequentially for potentially confounding factors; age, gender, ethnicity and lone parenthood. Results: By 2001, 2049 (4%) had at least one disability. Socio-economic disadvantage, age, gender and lone parenthood but not ethnicity were significantly associated with onset of disabling chronic conditions. The SDI showed a finely graded association with onset of disabling chronic conditions in the index group (most disadvantaged OR 2·11 [CI 1·76 to 2·53]; disadvantaged in two domains OR 1·45 [CI 1·20 to 1·75]; disadvantaged in one domain OR 1·14 [CI 0·93 to 1·39] that was unaffected by age, gender and ethnicity and slightly attenuated by lone parenthood. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first study to identify socio-economic disadvantage in earlier childhood as a predisposing factor for onset of all-cause disabling chronic conditions in later childhood. Temporal ordering and gradation of the response indicate socio-economic disadvantage may play a causal role. This suggests that targeting preventative efforts to reduce socio-economic disadvantage in early childhood is likely to be an important public health strategy to decease health inequalities in later childhood and early adulthood

Volume, patterns, and types of sedentary behavior and cardio-metabolic health in children and adolescents: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cardio-metabolic risk factors are becoming more prevalent in children and adolescents. A lack of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) is an established determinant of cardio-metabolic risk factors in children and adolescents. Less is known about the relationship between sedentary behavior and cardio-metabolic health. Therefore, the objective was to examine the independent associations between volume, patterns, and types of sedentary behavior with cardio-metabolic risk factors among children and adolescents.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The results are based on 2527 children and adolescents (6-19 years old) from the 2003/04 and 2005/06 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). A cardio-metabolic risk score (CRS) was calculated based on age- and sex-adjusted waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and C-reactive protein values. Volume and patterns of sedentary behavior and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were measured objectively using accelerometers. Types of sedentary behavior were measured by questionnaire. A series of logistic regression models were used to examine associations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Volume and patterns of sedentary behavior were not predictors of high CRS after adjusting for MVPA and other confounders (P > 0.1). For types of sedentary behavior, high TV use, but not high computer use, was a predictor of high CRS after adjustment for MVPA and other confounders. Children and adolescents who watched ≥4 hours per day of TV were 2.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.45-4.42) times more likely to have high CRS than those who watched <1 hour per day. MVPA predicted high CRS after adjusting for all sedentary behavior measures and other confounders. After adjustment for waist circumference, MVPA also predicted high non-obesity CRS; however, the same relationship was not seen with TV use.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>No association was observed between overall volume and patterns of sedentary behavior with cardio-metabolic risk factors in this large sample of children and adolescents. Conversely, high TV use and low MVPA were independently associated with cardio-metabolic risk factors. However, the association between high TV use and clustered cardio-metabolic risk factors appears to be mediated or confounded by obesity. Thus, TV and MVPA appear to be two separate behaviors that need to be targeted with different interventions and policies.</p

The relationship between organisational characteristics and the effects of clinical guidelines on medical performance in hospitals, a meta-analysis

We are grateful to our colleagues involved in the systematic review of guideline dissemination and implementation strategies across all settings especially Cynthia Fraser, Graeme MacLennan, Craig Ramsay, Paula Whitty, Martin Eccles, Lloyd Matowe, Liz Shirran. The systematic review of guideline dissemination and implementation strategies across all settings was funded by the UK NHS Health Technology Assessment Program. Dr Ruth Thomas is funded by a Wellcome Training Fellowship in Health Services Research. (Grant number GR063790MA). The Health Services Research Unit is funded by the Chief Scientists Office of the Scottish Executive Department of Health. Dr Jeremy Grimshaw holds a Canada Research Chair in Health Knowledge Transfer and Uptake. However the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily the funders.Peer reviewedPublisher PD