Spatial point analysis based on dengue surveys at household level in central Brazil

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dengue virus (DENV) affects nonimunne human populations in tropical and subtropical regions. In the Americas, dengue has drastically increased in the last two decades and Brazil is considered one of the most affected countries. The high frequency of asymptomatic infection makes difficult to estimate prevalence of infection using registered cases and to locate high risk intra-urban area at population level. The goal of this spatial point analysis was to identify potential high-risk intra-urban areas of dengue, using data collected at household level from surveys.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two household surveys took place in the city of Goiania (~1.1 million population), Central Brazil in the year 2001 and 2002. First survey screened 1,586 asymptomatic individuals older than 5 years of age. Second survey 2,906 asymptomatic volunteers, same age-groups, were selected by multistage sampling (census tracts; blocks; households) using available digital maps. Sera from participants were tested by dengue virus-specific IgM/IgG by EIA. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to detect the spatial varying risk over the region. Initially without any fixed covariates, to depict the overall risk map, followed by a model including the main covariates and the year, where the resulting maps show the risk associated with living place, controlled for the individual risk factors. This method has the advantage to generate smoothed risk factors maps, adjusted by socio-demographic covariates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of antibody against dengue infection was 37.3% (95%CI [35.5–39.1]) in the year 2002; 7.8% increase in one-year interval. The spatial variation in risk of dengue infection significantly changed when comparing 2001 with 2002, (ORadjusted = 1.35; p < 0.001), while controlling for potential confounders using GAM model. Also increasing age and low education levels were associated with dengue infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed spatial heterogeneity in the risk areas of dengue when using a spatial multivariate approach in a short time interval. Data from household surveys pointed out that low prevalence areas in 2001 surveys shifted to high-risk area in consecutive year. This mapping of dengue risks should give insights for control interventions in urban areas.</p

Recommendations for diagnosis, treatment and folow-up of the Trypanosoma cruzi - human immunodeficiency virus co-infection

39439241

Dengue endêmico: o desafio das estratégias de vigilância Endemic dengue: surveillance strategy challenges

A interação entre infecção clínica, vetor e imunidade sorotípica da população define o risco de epidemia por dengue. A situação epidemiológica endêmico-esporádica seria meta aceitável de controle em regiões metropolitanas ante deficiências de urbanização, saneamento, acesso às residências por agentes sanitários, baixo poder residual de inseticidas biológicos e mobilização social. A Vigilância, então, requererá continuidade das ações públicas e da sociedade em geral, estimuladas na medida inversa da redução de casos, e propostas adequadas. Visando constituir sistema de Vigilância sensível e específico, sobretudo em períodos endêmicos, propõe-se que o componente clínico sentinela deve integrar tanto a assistência emergencial aberta preconizada, detectando casos graves - ponta do iceberg, como serviços de referência para doenças febris agudas, definindo diferentes formas clínicas e propiciando confirmação diagnóstica. Em regiões estratégicas, paralelamente, inquéritos sorotipicos amostrais, embora complexos, devem ser buscados, avaliando imunidade e suscetibilidade de grupos etários aos sorotipos circulantes, estimativa de casos subclínicos e alcance do Sistema de Vigilância e Controle.<br>Interaction between clinical infection, vector, and population serotype immunity defines dengue epidemic risk. An endemic-sporadic epidemiological situation is an acceptable control target in metropolitan regions deficient in urban upgrading, sanitation, and health agents' access to residences, besides low residual power of biological insecticides and social mobilization problems. Surveillance requires continued action by government and society (particularly when incidence decreases) and adequate proposals. To establish a sensitive and specific surveillance system for endemic periods, the authors propose the sentinel clinical component as part of emergency care (detecting serious tip-of-the-iceberg cases) and reference services for acute febrile diseases, defining clinical forms and providing diagnostic confirmation. Although complex, sample serotype surveys should be conducted in strategic areas, evaluating: immunity and susceptibility of age groups to circulating serotypes; estimation of sub-clinical cases; and Surveillance and Control System reach