An examination of the precipitation delivery mechanisms for Dolleman Island, eastern Antarctic Peninsula

Copyright @ 2004 Wiley-BlackwellThe variability of size and source of significant precipitation events were studied at an Antarctic ice core drilling site: Dolleman Island (DI), located on the eastern coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Significant precipitation events that occur at DI were temporally located in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data set, ERA-40. The annual and summer precipitation totals from ERA-40 at DI both show significant increases over the reanalysis period. Three-dimensional backwards air parcel trajectories were then run for 5 d using the ECMWF ERA-15 wind fields. Cluster analyses were performed on two sets of these backwards trajectories: all days in the range 1979–1992 (the climatological time-scale) and a subset of days when a significant precipitation event occurred. The principal air mass sources and delivery mechanisms were found to be the Weddell Sea via lee cyclogenesis, the South Atlantic when there was a weak circumpolar trough (CPT) and the South Pacific when the CPT was deep. The occurrence of precipitation bearing air masses arriving via a strong CPT was found to have a significant correlation with the southern annular mode (SAM); however, the arrival of air masses from the same region over the climatological time-scale showed no such correlation. Despite the dominance in both groups of back trajectories of the westerly circulation around Antarctica, some other key patterns were identified. Most notably there was a higher frequency of lee cyclogenesis events in the significant precipitation trajectories compared to the climatological time-scale. There was also a tendency for precipitation trajectories to come from more northerly latitudes, mostly from 50–70°S. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a strong influence on the mechanism by which the precipitation was delivered; the frequency of occurrence of precipitation from the east (west) of DI increased during El Niño (La Niña) events

Regional climate of the Larsen B embayment 1980–2014

Understanding the climate response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet is vital for accurate predictions of sea-level rise. However, since climate models are typically too coarse to capture spatial variability in local scale meteorological processes, our ability to study specific sectors has been limited by the local fidelity of such models and the (often sparse) availability of observations. We show that a high-resolution (5.5 km × 5.5 km) version of a regional climate model (RACMO2.3) can reproduce observed interannual variability in the Larsen B embayment sufficiently to enable its use in investigating long-term changes in this sector. Using the model, together with automatic weather station data, we confirm previous findings that the year of the Larsen B ice shelf collapse (2001/02) was a strong melt year, but discover that total annual melt production was in fact ~30% lower than 2 years prior. While the year before collapse exhibited the lowest melting and highest snowfall during 1980–2014, the ice shelf was likely pre-conditioned for collapse by a series of strong melt years in the 1990s. Melt energy has since returned to pre-1990s levels, which likely explains the lack of further significant collapse in the region (e.g. of SCAR Inlet)

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between ∼6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200–1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A.D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4° ± 1°C, and sea ice extent will decrease by ∼30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questions about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth\u27s climate and oceans

Trends and connections across the Antarctic cryosphere

Satellite observations have transformed our understanding of the Antarctic cryosphere. The continent holds the vast majority of Earth’s fresh water, and blankets swathes of the Southern Hemisphere in ice. Reductions in the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves have disturbed inland ice, triggering retreat, acceleration and drawdown of marine-terminating glaciers. The waxing and waning of Antarctic sea ice is one of Earth’s greatest seasonal habitat changes, and although the maximum extent of the sea ice has increased modestly since the 1970s, inter-annual variability is high, and there is evidence of longer-term decline in its extent

Monitoring ice shelf velocities from repeat MODIS and Landsat data – a method study on the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, and 10 other ice shelves around Antarctica

We investigate the velocity field of the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, over the periods 2002–2006 and 2006–2009 based on repeat optical satellite data. The velocity field of the entire ice shelf is measured using repeat low resolution MODIS data (250 m spatial resolution). The measurements are validated for two ice shelf sections against repeat medium resolution Landsat 7 ETM + pan data (15 m spatial resolution). Horizontal surface velocities are obtained through image matching using both orientation correlation operated in the frequency domain and normalized crosscorrelation operated in the spatial domain, and the two methods compared. The uncertainty in the displacement measurements turns out to be about one fourth of the pixel size for the MODIS derived data, and about one pixel for the Landsat derived data. The difference between MODIS and Landsat based speeds is −15.4 m a−1 and 13.0 m a−1, respectively, for the first period for the two different validation sections on the ice shelf, and −26.7 m a−1 and 27.9 m a−1 for the second period for the same sections. This leads us to conclude that repeat MODIS images are well suited to measure ice shelf velocity fields and monitor their changes over time. Orientation correlation seems better suited for this purpose because it produces fewer mismatches, is able to match images with regular noise and data voids, and is faster. Since it can match images with regular data voids it is possible to match Landsat 7 ETM+ images even after the 2003 failure of the Scan Line Corrector (SLC off) that leaves significant image stripes with no data. Image matching based on the original 12-bit radiometric resolution MODIS data produced slightly better results than using the 8-bit version of the same images. Streamline interpolation from the obtained surface velocity field on Larsen~C indicates ice travel times of up to 450 to 550 years between the inland boundary and the ice shelf edge. In a second step of the study we test our method successfully on 10 other ice shelves around Antarctica demonstrating that the approach presented could in fact be used for large scale monitoring of ice shelf dynamics

34 year satellite time series to monitor characteristics, extent and dynamics of Larsen B, Antarctic Peninsula

A variety of data are used to investigate Larsen B, which is at present the northernmost section of the Larsen Ice Shelf. Recently declassified USArgon satellite photographs of 1963, Kosmos photographs of 1975, Landsat images of 1986, 1988 and 1990, ERS-1/2 SAR images from 1992 to1997, Radarsat of 1998 and field surveys are used to analyze the areal extent, surface characteristics and dynamic behaviour of this ice shelf sectionover more than three decades. Visible and radar imagery together with field observations are used synergistically to describe the ice shelf morphology,including meltwater features and rifts. In contrast to the retreat of the ice shelf sections in the north, Larsen B advanced steadily from 1963 to early1995 when the area decreased significantly due to a major calving event. Analysis of different satellite images indicates that melting is proceedingfurther south in coincidence with the regional warming trend. In addition, fracturing processes and rapid development of new rifts are observed,associated with recent acceleration of ice motion close to the front. All observations indicate that major calving events should be expected for this iceshelf section in the near future

Significant Ice Retreat in the Region Patagonia - Antarctic Peninsula Oberved by ERS SAR

Areal changes and flow dynamics of glaciers of the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) and of northern Larsen Ice Shelf (LIS) on the Antarctic Peninsula have been investigated based on ERS-1 and ERS-2 SAR data and on field work. After a period of steady retreat, coinciding with regional atmospheric warming during the last five decades, the two northernmost sections of the LIS (north of 65°S) disintegrated within a few days in early 1995. At the same time a large calving event occurred also in the section of the LIS south of 65°S. Recent observations of the ice front and of rifting zones indicate that the retreat of this section might accelerate in the near future. Studies of major outlet glaciers on the east side of the SPI, which extends from 48.3°S to 51.5°S, revealed significant retreat for the majority of glaciers. As an example, areal changes of Upsala Glacier, calving into Lago Argentino, are shown. The retreat accelerated considerably after 1993 resulting in unusually large calving events. The region Patagonia - Antarctic Peninsula, located in the west wind zone, reveals steep climatic gradients and therefore is particularly sensitive to climate change as indicated by the retreat of glaciers and ice shelves

The Motion Field of Northern Larsen Ice Shelf Derived from Satellite Imagery

The motion field of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, was analyzed, based on Landsat data from 1986 to 1989, ERS-SAR data from1992 to 1997, and comparative field measurements along three transects. During this period the northern sections of the ice shelf showed steadyretreat, which culminated in the disintegration of the two ice shelf sections north of the Seal Nunataks in January 1995. Velocities of these two sectionswere derived by cross-correlation, using SAR images of one-year time intervals and Landsat images of one- to three-year intervals. A slight increaseof velocity was observed, as crevasses and rifts opened before the final disintegration. In addition, an interferometric motion analysis was carried outfor the ice shelf around and south of Seal Nunataks based on an image pair from the ERS-1/ERS-2 Tandem Mission in 1995. This analysis reveals acomplex pattern of tidal flexure in the grounding zones, as well as rifting and shear zones on the ice shelf. In addition, the motion of the main inputglaciers was derived