21 research outputs found
Reconstruction and simulation of an extreme flood event in the Lago Maggiore catchment in 1868
Heavy precipitation on the south side of the central Alps
produced a catastrophic flood in October 1868. We assess the damage and
societal impacts, as well as the atmospheric and hydrological drivers using
documentary evidence, observations and novel numerical weather and runoff
simulations.The greatest damage was concentrated close to the Alpine divide and Lago
Maggiore. An atmospheric reanalysis emphasizes the repeated occurrence of
streamers of high potential vorticity as precursors of heavy precipitation.
Dynamical downscaling indicates high freezing levels (4000 m a.s.l.),
extreme precipitation rates (max. 270 mm 24 hâ1) and weather dynamics that agree well with observed
precipitation and damage, and with existing concepts of forced low-level
convergence, mid-level uplift and iterative northeastward propagation of
convective cells. Simulated and observed peak levels of Lago Maggiore differ
by 2 m, possibly because the exact cross section of the lake outflow is
unknown. The extreme response of Lago Maggiore cannot be attributed to low
forest cover. Nevertheless, such a paradigm was adopted by policy makers
following the 1868 flood, and used to implement nationwide afforestation
policies and hydraulic structures.These findings illustrate the potential of high-resolution,
hydrometeorological models â strongly supported by historical methods â
to shed new light on weather events and their socio-economic implications in
the 19th century.</p
Positive pion absorption on 3He using modern trinucleon wave functions
We study pion absorption on 3He employing trinucleon wave functions
calculated from modern realistic NN interactions (Paris, CD Bonn). Even though
the use of the new wave functions leads to a significant improvement over older
calculations with regard to both cross section and polarization data, there are
hints that polarization data with quasifree kinematics cannot be described by
just two-nucleon absorption mechanisms.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure
The pd <--> pi+ t reaction around the Delta resonance
The pd pi+ t process has been calculated in the energy region around the
Delta-resonance with elementary production/absorption mechanisms involving one
and two nucleons. The isobar degrees of freedom have been explicitly included
in the two-nucleon mechanism via pi-- and rho-exchange diagrams. No free
parameters have been employed in the analysis since all the parameters have
been fixed in previous studies on the simpler pp pi+ d process. The
treatment of the few-nucleon dynamics entailed a Faddeev-based calculation of
the reaction, with continuum calculations for the initial p-d state and
accurate solutions of the three-nucleon bound-state equation. The integral
cross-section was found to be quite sensitive to the NN interaction employed
while the angular dependence showed less sensitivity. Approximately a 4% effect
was found for the one-body mechanism, for the three-nucleon dynamics in the p-d
channel, and for the inclusion of a large, possibly converged, number of
three-body partial states, indicating that these different aspects are of
comparable importance in the calculation of the spin-averaged observables.Comment: 40 Pages, RevTex, plus 5 PostScript figure
Tear fluid biomarkers in ocular and systemic disease: potential use for predictive, preventive and personalised medicine
In the field of predictive, preventive and personalised medicine, researchers are keen to identify novel and reliable ways to predict and diagnose disease, as well as to monitor patient response to therapeutic agents. In the last decade alone, the sensitivity of profiling technologies has undergone huge improvements in detection sensitivity, thus allowing quantification of minute samples, for example body fluids that were previously difficult to assay. As a consequence, there has been a huge increase in tear fluid investigation, predominantly in the field of ocular surface disease. As tears are a more accessible and less complex body fluid (than serum or plasma) and sampling is much less invasive, research is starting to focus on how disease processes affect the proteomic, lipidomic and metabolomic composition of the tear film. By determining compositional changes to tear profiles, crucial pathways in disease progression may be identified, allowing for more predictive and personalised therapy of the individual. This article will provide an overview of the various putative tear fluid biomarkers that have been identified to date, ranging from ocular surface disease and retinopathies to cancer and multiple sclerosis. Putative tear fluid biomarkers of ocular disorders, as well as the more recent field of systemic disease biomarkers, will be shown
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The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe
Changes in climate affected human societies throughout the last millennium. While European cold periods
in the 17th and 18th century have been assessed in detail, earlier cold periods received much less attention due to sparse information available. New evidence from proxy archives, historical documentary sources and climate model simulations permit us to provide an interdisciplinary, systematic assessment of an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century. Our assessment includes the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping extreme climatic conditions and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in north-western and central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and anthropogenic archives indicate that the 1430s were the coldest decade in north-western and central Europe in the 15th century. This decade is characterised by cold winters and average to warm summers resulting in a strong seasonal cycle in temperature. Results from comprehensive climate models indicate consistently that these conditions occurred by chance due to the partly chaotic internal variability within the climate system. External forcing like volcanic eruptions tends to reduce simulated temperature seasonality and cannot explain the reconstructions. The strong seasonal cycle in temperature reduced food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis and a famine in parts of Europe. Societies were not prepared to cope with failing markets and interrupted trade routes. In response to the crisis, authorities implemented numerous measures of supply policy and adaptation such as the installation of grain storage capacities to be prepared for future food production shortfalls
Labour market prospects of Swiss career entrants after completion of vocational education and training
This study seeks to find the reasons for the rising risk of unemployment for people who have completed basic vocational education and training (VET) in Switzerland. We focus on the long-term structural shift on the demand side of the labour market and its consequences for new entrantsâ chances of employment in the labour force. A detailed analysis of the development of vacancies for such âcareer entrantsâ in the time period 2001 to 2011 suggests that neither a growing occupational mismatch nor a general shift in the level of education to the disadvantage of workers with vocational education can be made responsible for the rising unemployment of labour market entrants. Instead, the available evidence indicates that a diminishing part of the vacancies suited for VET graduates remains open to entrants because of the increasing job requirements with regard to work experience and further education. Basic vocational education and training alone is increasingly less a guarantee for a smooth entry into the working world