The relationship between ENSO and Paraná River flow

International audienceSeveral studies indicate that there is a relationship between the climatic variability in the South American continent and alterations of the position and intensity of the heat sources in the equatorial region. The El Niño phenomenon can influence the precipitation over some regions of South America such as the Brazilian Northeast, Amazonia, South of Brazil and Uruguay. Over 80% of Brazil's energy comes from hydropower, and decisions concerning future availability and pricing require forecasts of river flow, ideally several months in advance. In this work the relationship between the Paraná River flow and the ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) mode is investigated and statistical forecasts of river flow are tested. An evaluation of the relationship between the Pacific sea surface temperature and the Paraná River flow indicates an ENSO pattern over the equatorial Pacific. The time series of the ENSO mode obtained by applying principal components analysis on the sea surface temperature (SST) were used as predictors for the Paraná River flow forecast. Improvement in the model forecast skill is also obtained by considering the lagged river flow time series as a predictor

In-Situ Component-Based TPA for Time-Variant Dynamic Systems: A State-Space Formulation

In this chapter, a methodology to calculate equivalent forces by taking into account the possible time-varying dynamic behavior of the components under analysis is presented. This methodology is based on the use of the state-space realization of the in-situ component-based TPA method. To take into account possible time-varying dynamic behavior of the systems under study, a local linear parameter varying (LPV) model identification approach is used. This approach enables the computation of state-space models representative of the components at each time instant by interpolating a given set of linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models representative of the dynamics of the components under study for fixed operating conditions. By exploiting a numerical example, it is found that when dealing with structures presenting time-varying behavior, accurate equivalent forces can be computed in time domain by using the approaches presented in this chapter. Furthermore, it is clearly demonstrated that ignoring the time dependency of the dynamic behavior of mechanical systems can lead to an important deterioration of the results

On the prediction of the time-varying behaviour of dynamic systems by interpolating state-space models

In this article, a local Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) model identification approach is exploited to analyze the dynamic behaviour of a structure whose dynamics varies over time. This structure is composed by two aluminum crosses connected by a rubber mount. To observe time-dependent variations on the dynamics of this assembly, it is placed in a climate chamber and submitted to a six minute temperature run-up. During this run-up the structure is continuously excited by a shaker. The load provided by this device is measured by a load cell, while six accelerometers are measuring the responses of the system. The temperatures of the air inside the climate chamber and at the surface of the mount are also continuously measured. It is found that during the performed temperature run-up, the rubber mount temperature increased from, roughly, 14°C to, approximately, 35.2°C. By using the measured load provided by the shaker and the measured accelerations, Frequency Response Functions (FRFs) at five different rubber mount temperatures are computed. From each of these sets of FRFs, state-space models are estimated. Afterwards, these models are used to define an interpolating LPV model, which enables the computation of interpolated state-space models representative of the dynamics of the system at each time sample. It is found that by feeding the interpolated state-space models with the measured load, an accurate simulation of the measured accelerations is obtained. Moreover, by exploiting a joint input-state estimation algorithm with the interpolated state-space models and with the measured accelerations, a very good prediction of the applied load can be obtained. It is also shown that if the time dependency of the dynamics of the system is ignored, the results are less accurate

Entropic Gravity, Phase-Space Noncommutativity and the Equivalence Principle

We generalize E. Verlinde's entropic gravity reasoning to a phase-space noncommutativity set-up. This allow us to impose a bound on the product of the noncommutative parameters based on the Equivalence Principle. The key feature of our analysis is an effective Planck's constant that naturally arises when accounting for the noncommutative features of the phase-space.Comment: 12 pages. Version to appear at the Classical and Quantum Gravit

An experience with Desmos in the study of the quadratic function

In this paper we present a didactic experience in the subject of Mathematics carried out in a distance learning context, on the topic Quadratic Function, using the digital and free platform Desmos. The use of this tool was determinant for the teaching and learning of quadratic function since its teaching took place in distance education, due to the pandemic situation. In a pandemic context, the use of tools to gauge student learning was a necessity, but practices such as the one described in this paper should be incorporated into a normal classroom environment, promoting discovery through graphical and algebraic manipulation.publishe

Radiocarbon and blue optically stimulated luminescence chronologies of the Oitavos consolidated dune (Western Portugal)

The dune of Oitavos, the underlying paleosol, and Helix sp. gastropod shells found within the paleosol were dated using a combination of radiocarbon and blue optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). The organic component of the paleosol produced a significantly older age (~20,000 cal BP) than the OSL age measurement (~15,000 yr), while 14C age measurements on the inorganic component and the gastropods produced ages of ~35,000 yr and ~34,000 yr, respectively. Rare-earth element analyses provide evidence that the gastropods incorporate geological carbonate, making them an unreliable indicator of the age of the paleosol. We propose that the 14C age of the small organic component of the paleosol is also likely to be unreliable due to incorporation of residual material. The OSL age measurement of the upper paleosol (~15,000 yr) is consistent with the age for the base of the dune (~14,500 yr). The younger OSL age for the top of the dune (~12,000 yr) suggests that it was built up by at least 2 sand pulses or that there was a remobilization of material at the top during its evolution, prior to consolidation

Well-posedness for a model of individual clustering

25 pagesInternational audienceWe study the well-posedness of a model of individual clustering. Given p > N ≥ 1 and an initial condition in W 1,p (Ω), the local existence and uniqueness of a strong solution is proved. We next consider two specific reproduction rates and show global existence if N = 1, as well as, the convergence to steady states for one of these rates

Sex-related inequalities in management of patients with acute coronary syndrome-results from the EURHOBOP study

Background: Real‐world data from different levels of hospital specialisation would help to understand if differences in management between women and men with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are still a priority target. We aimed to identify sex inequalities in management of patients with different types of ACS. Methods: We analysed 1757 patients with a non‐ST‐elevation ACS (NSTEACS) and 1184 with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) or left bundle branch block (non‐classifiable (NC) ACS (STEMI/NC ACS group), consecutively discharged from ten Portuguese hospitals with different specialisation levels, between 2008 and 2010. We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the association between sex and the performance of coronary angiography, reperfusion and revascularisation. Results: Among STEMI/NC ACS, men had higher probability of performing coronary angiography than women (adjusted OR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.11‐2.44), while among NSTEACS patients there was no significant difference by sex (adjusted OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 0.99‐1.62). In patients who underwent coronary angiography, there was no difference in proportion of women and men submitted to revascularisation, regardless of the ACS type. Although men with STEMI/NC ACS were more likely to undergo reperfusion (crude OR = 2.17, 95% CI: 1.68‐2.81), the effect became not significant after multivariable adjustment (adjusted OR = 1.33, 95% CI: 0.96‐1.84). Conclusion: Women diagnosed with STEMI/NC, but not NSTEACS, had lower probability when compared with men to be submitted to coronary angiography. There was no difference in performance of reperfusion and revascularisation by sex.Executive Agency for Health and Consumers, Grant/Award Number: 2008 13 12 - EURHOBOP; Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit), Grant/Award Number: POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006862