Constructing seasonally adjusted data with time-varying confidence intervals

Seasonal adjustment methods transform observed time series data into estimated data, where these estimated data are constructed such that they show no or almost no seasonal variation. An advantage of model-based methods is that these can provide confidence intervals around the seasonally adjusted data. One particularly useful time series model for seasonal adjustment is the basic structural time series [BSM] model. The usual premise of the BSM is that the variance of each of the components is constant. In this paper we address the possibility that the variance of the trend component in a macro-economic time series in some way depends on the business cycle. One reason for doing so is that one can expect that there is more uncertainty in recession periods. We extend the BSM by allowing for a business-cycle dependent variance in the level equation. Next we show how this affects the confidence intervals of seasonally adjusted data. We apply our extended BSM to monthly US unemployment and we show that the estimated confidence intervals for seasonally adjusted unemployment change with past changes in the oil price

Significant variation in histopathological assessment of endoscopic resections for Barrett's neoplasia suggests need for consensus reporting:propositions for improvement

Endoscopic resection (ER) is an important diagnostic step in management of patients with early Barrett's esophagus (BE) neoplasia. Based on ER specimens, an accurate histological diagnosis can be made, which guides further treatment. Based on depth of tumor invasion, differentiation grade, lymphovascular invasion, and margin status, the risk of lymph node metastases and local recurrence is judged to be low enough to justify endoscopic management, or high enough to warrant invasive surgical esophagectomy. Adequate assessment of these histological risk factors is therefore of the utmost importance. Aim of this study was to assess pathologist concordance on these histological features on ER specimens and evaluate causes of discrepancy. Of 62 challenging ER cases, one representative H&E slide and matching desmin and endothelial marker were digitalized and independently assessed by 13 dedicated GI pathologists from 8 Dutch BE expert centers, using an online assessment module. For each histological feature, concordance and discordance were calculated. Clinically relevant discordances were observed for all criteria. Grouping depth of invasion categories according to expanded endoscopic treatment criteria (T1a and T1sm1 vs. T1sm2/3), ≥1 pathologist was discrepant in 21% of cases, increasing to 45% when grouping diagnoses according to the traditional T1a versus T1b classification. For differentiation grade, lymphovascular invasion, and margin status, discordances were substantial with 27%, 42%, and 32% of cases having ≥1 discrepant pathologist, respectively. In conclusion, histological assessment of ER specimens of early BE cancer by dedicated GI pathologists shows significant discordances for all relevant histological features. We present propositions to improve definitions of diagnostic criteria

Subchondral bone changes after joint distraction treatment for end stage knee osteoarthritis

Objective: Increased subchondral cortical bone plate thickness and trabecular bone density are characteristic of knee osteoarthritis (OA). Knee joint distraction (KJD) is a joint-preserving knee OA treatment where the joint is temporarily unloaded. It has previously shown clinical improvement and cartilage regeneration, indicating reversal of OA-related changes. The purpose of this research was to explore 3D subchondral bone changes after KJD treatment using CT imaging. Design: Twenty patients were treated with KJD and included to undergo knee CT imaging before, one, and two years after treatment. Tibia and femur segmentation and registration to canonical surfaces were performed semi-automatically. Cortical bone thickness and trabecular bone density were determined using an automated algorithm. Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) with two-tailed F-tests was used to analyze whole-joint changes. Results: Data was available of 16 patients. Subchondral cortical bone plate thickness and trabecular bone density were higher in the weight-bearing region of the most affected compartment (MAC; mostly medial). Especially the MAC showed a decrease in thickness and density in the first year after treatment, which was sustained towards the second year. Conclusions: KJD treatment results in bone changes that include thinning of the subchondral cortical bone plate and decrease of subchondral trabecular bone density in the first two years after treatment, potentially indicating a partial normalization of subchondral bone

Task shifting and integration of HIV care into primary care in South Africa: The development and content of the streamlining tasks and roles to expand treatment and care for HIV (STRETCH) intervention

Background: Task shifting and the integration of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care into primary care services have been identified as possible strategies for improving access to antiretroviral treatment (ART). This paper describes the development and content of an intervention involving these two strategies, as part of the Streamlining Tasks and Roles to Expand Treatment and Care for HIV (STRETCH) pragmatic randomised controlled trial. Methods: Developing the intervention: The intervention was developed following discussions with senior management, clinicians, and clinic staff. These discussions revealed that the establishment of separate antiretroviral treatment services for HIV had resulted in problems in accessing care due to the large number of patients at ART clinics. The intervention developed therefore combined the shifting from doctors to nurses of prescriptions of antiretrovirals (ARVs) for uncomplicated patients and the stepwise integration of HIV care into primary care services. Results: Components of the intervention: The intervention consisted of regulatory changes, training, and guidelines to support nurse ART prescription, local management teams, an implementation toolkit, and a flexible, phased introduction. Nurse supervisors were equipped to train intervention clinic nurses in ART prescription using outreach education and an integrated primary care guideline. Management teams were set up and a STRETCH coordinator was appointed to oversee the implementation process. Discussion: Three important processes were used in developing and implementing this intervention: active participation of clinic staff and local and provincial management, educational outreach to train nurses in intervention sites, and an external facilitator to support all stages of the intervention rollout

Sex Differences in Neoplastic Progression in Barrett's Esophagus:A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study

Recommendations in Barrett’s esophagus (BE) guidelines are mainly based on male patients. We aimed to evaluate sex differences in BE patients in (1) probability of and (2) time to neoplastic progression, and (3) differences in the stage distribution of neoplasia. We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study including 868 BE patients. Cox regression modeling and accelerated failure time modeling were used to estimate the sex differences. Neoplastic progression was defined as highgrade dysplasia (HGD) and/or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Among the 639 (74%) males and 229 females that were included (median follow-up 7.1 years), 61 (7.0%) developed HGD/EAC. Neoplastic progression risk was estimated to be twice as high among males (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.11–4.62) than females. The risk of HGD was found to be higher in males (HR 3.76, 95% CI 1.33–10.6). Time to HGD/EAC (AR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29–0.95) and HGD (AR 0.40, 95% CI 0.19–0.86) was shorter in males. Females had proportionally more EAC than HGD and tended to have higher stages of neoplasia at diagnosis. In conclusion, both the risk of and time to neoplastic progression were higher in males. However, females were proportionally more often diagnosed with (advanced) EAC. We should strive for improved neoplastic risk stratification per individual BE patient, incorporating sex disparities into new prediction models

Measurement of overall quality of life in nursing homes through self-report: the role of cognitive impairment

Measuring quality of life is a necessity for adequate interventions. This paper concerns the usefulness of six self-report measures for overall quality of life for nursing home residents with various levels of cognitive impairment. It was investigated which proportion of residents from four cognition groups could complete a scale, and internal consistency and construct validity of the scales were studied. Data collection took place in ten Dutch nursing homes (N = 227). The proportion of residents that could complete each scale varied. The Depression List could be administered most often to the cognitively most impaired group (43%; Mini Mental State Examination-scores 0–4). In the three cognition groups with MMSE-score >5, internal consistency of the Depression List, Geriatric Depression Scale and Negative Affect Scale was adequate in all three groups (alpha ≥.68). Intercorrelation was highest for the Philadelphia Geriatric Center Morale Scale, the Depression List, and the Geriatric Depression Scale (rho ≥.65). Nonetheless, self-report scales were not strongly correlated with two observational scales for depression, especially in cognitively severely impaired residents (rho ≤.30). In conclusion, it may not be possible to measure overall quality of life through self-report, and possibly also through observation, in many nursing home residents

Evidence and Policy in Aid-Dependent Settings

This chapter examines how the political dynamics of aid relationships can affect the use of evidence within health policymaking. Empirical examples from Cambodia, Ethiopia and Ghana illustrate how relationships between national governments and donor agencies influence the ways in which evidence is generated, selected, or utilised to inform policymaking. We particularly consider how relationships with donors influence the underlying systems and processes of evidence use. We find a number of issues affecting which bodies or forms of evidence are taken to be policy relevant, including: levels of local technical capacity to utilise or synthesise evidence; differing stakeholder framing of issues; and the influence of non-state actors on sector-wide systems of agenda setting. The chapter also reflects on some of the key governance implications of these arrangements in which global actors promote forms of evidence use – often under a banner of technical efficiency – with limited consideration for local representation or accountability

The Bone-Forming Effects of HIF-1α-Transduced BMSCs Promote Osseointegration with Dental Implant in Canine Mandible

The presence of insufficient bone volume remains a major clinical problem for dental implant placement to restore the oral function. Gene-transduced stem cells provide a promising approach for inducing bone regeneration and enhancing osseointegration in dental implants with tissue engineering technology. Our previous studies have demonstrated that the hypoxia-inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α) promotes osteogenesis in rat bone mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs). In this study, the function of HIF-1α was validated for the first time in a preclinical large animal canine model in term of its ability to promote new bone formation in defects around implants as well as the osseointegration between tissue-engineered bone and dental implants. A lentiviral vector was constructed with the constitutively active form of HIF-1α (cHIF). The ectopic bone formation was evaluated in nude mice. The therapeutic potential of HIF-1α-overexpressing canine BMSCs in bone repair was evaluated in mesi-implant defects of immediate post-extraction implants in the canine mandible. HIF-1α mediated canine BMSCs significantly promoted new bone formation both subcutaneously and in mesi-implant defects, including increased bone volume, bone mineral density, trabecular thickness, and trabecular bone volume fraction. Furthermore, osseointegration was significantly enhanced by HIF-1α-overexpressing canine BMSCs. This study provides an important experimental evidence in a preclinical large animal model concerning to the potential applications of HIF-1α in promoting new bone formation as well as the osseointegration of immediate implantation for oral function restoration

When to start antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: a human rights analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Recent evidence from developed and developing countries shows clear clinical and public health benefit to starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) earlier. While discussions about when to start ART have often focused on the clinical risks and benefits, the main issue is one of fair limit-setting. We applied a human rights framework to assess a policy of early treatment initiation according to the following criteria: public-health purpose; likely effectiveness; specificity; human rights burdens and benefits; potential for less restrictive approaches; and fair administration.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>According to our analysis, a policy of earlier ART initiation would better serve both public health and human rights objectives. We highlight a number of policy approaches that could be taken to help meet this aim, including increased international financial support, alternative models of care, and policies to secure the most affordable sources of appropriate antiretroviral drugs.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Widespread implementation of earlier ART initiation is challenging in resource-limited settings. Nevertheless, rationing of essential medicines is a restriction of human rights, and the principle of least restriction serves to focus attention on alternative measures such as adapting health service models to increase capacity, decreasing costs, and seeking additional international funding. Progressive realisation using well-defined steps will be necessary to allow for a phased implementation as part of a framework of short-term targets towards nationwide policy adoption, and will require international technical and financial support.</p