Weather Variability, Tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone Region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention

Burkholderia pseudomallei Is Genetically Diverse in Agricultural Land in Northeast Thailand

Burkholderia pseudomallei is the cause of melioidosis, a serious human infection most commonly diagnosed in southeast Asia and northern Australia. The organism lives in the soil in a specific geographical distribution and infection results from bacterial inoculation, inhalation or ingestion. The purpose of this study was to define the distribution and genetic diversity of B. pseudomallei in agricultural land where most human infections probably occur. We performed soil sampling and culture for the presence of B. pseudomallei in 100 equally spaced points within a rice paddy in northeast Thailand, and undertook genotyping of primary culture plate colonies from 11 sampling points. We identified 7 different genotypes, with relatively limited overlap between different sampling points. Two samples contained more than one B. pseudomallei genotype, in which a numerically dominant genotype coexisted with one or more additional genotypes present as a minority population. We conclude that genetic diversity and structuring of B. pseudomallei exists despite the effects of flooding and the physical and chemical processes associated with farming. These findings inform future efforts to define B. pseudomallei in the environment, and should be considered during the design stage of studies comparing B. pseudomallei isolated from the environment and from patients with invasive disease

Burkholderia pseudomallei Is Spatially Distributed in Soil in Northeast Thailand

Melioidosis is a severe infection caused by the environmental bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei. Soil sampling is important to identify geographic regions where humans and animals are at risk of exposure. The purpose of this study was to examine a factor that has a major bearing on the accuracy of soil sampling: the spatial distribution of B. pseudomallei in soil of a specified sampling site. Soil sampling was performed using a fixed-interval grid of 100 sampling points in each of two sites (disused land and rice field) in northeast Thailand, and the presence and amount of B. pseudomallei determined using culture. Mapping of the presence and B. pseudomallei count demonstrated that samples taken from areas adjacent to sampling points that were culture positive (negative) for B. pseudomallei were also likely to be culture positive (negative), and samples taken from areas adjacent to sampling points with a high (low) B. pseudomallei count were also likely to yield a high (low) count (spatial autocorrelation). These data were used as the basis for highlighting several pitfalls in current approaches to soil sampling, together with a discussion of the suitability of a range of sampling strategies in different geographical locations and for different study objectives

Genetic Diversity and Microevolution of Burkholderia pseudomallei in the Environment

The soil dwelling Gram-negative bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei is the cause of melioidosis, a serious human infection that occurs in Southeast Asia and northern Australia. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the population genetic structure of B. pseudomallei in the environment. To achieve this, we undertook soil sampling and culture for the presence of B. pseudomallei in 100 equally spaced points within an area of disused land in northeast Thailand, and undertook detailed genotyping of primary plate colonies isolated from three independent sampling points. Our results demonstrated that multiple B. pseudomallei genotypes were present within a single soil sample, and that different genotypes were present at independent but nearby sampling points. The B. pseudomallei genetic population was unevenly distributed within a given sample, with a predominant genotype co-existing with several genotypes present as a minority population. We discuss the implications of this structuring of genotypic frequency in terms of micro-evolutionary dynamics and ecology, and how our results may inform future sampling strategies

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Barmah Forest Virus Disease in Queensland, Australia

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland

Bats host major mammalian paramyxoviruses

The large virus family Paramyxoviridae includes some of the most significant human and livestock viruses, such as measles-, distemper-, mumps-, parainfluenza-, Newcastle disease-, respiratory syncytial virus and metapneumoviruses. Here we identify an estimated 66 new paramyxoviruses in a worldwide sample of 119 bat and rodent species (9,278 individuals). Major discoveries include evidence of an origin of Hendra- and Nipah virus in Africa, identification of a bat virus conspecific with the human mumps virus, detection of close relatives of respiratory syncytial virus, mouse pneumonia- and canine distemper virus in bats, as well as direct evidence of Sendai virus in rodents. Phylogenetic reconstruction of host associations suggests a predominance of host switches from bats to other mammals and birds. Hypothesis tests in a maximum likelihood framework permit the phylogenetic placement of bats as tentative hosts at ancestral nodes to both the major Paramyxoviridae subfamilies (Paramyxovirinae and Pneumovirinae). Future attempts to predict the emergence of novel paramyxoviruses in humans and livestock will have to rely fundamentally on these data

Melioidosis Vaccines: A Systematic Review and Appraisal of the Potential to Exploit Biodefense Vaccines for Public Health Purposes

The designation of Burkholderia pseudomallei as a category B select agent has resulted in considerable research funding to develop a protective vaccine. This bacterium also causes a naturally occurring disease (melioidosis), an important cause of death in many countries including Thailand and Australia. In this study, we explored whether a vaccine could be used to provide protection from melioidosis. An economic evaluation based on its use in Thailand indicated that a vaccine could be a cost-effective intervention if used in high-risk populations such as diabetics and those with chronic kidney or lung disease. A literature search of vaccine studies in animal models identified the current candidates, but noted that models failed to take account of the common routes of infection in natural melioidosis and major risk factors for infection, primarily diabetes. This review highlights important areas for future research if biodefence-driven vaccines are to play a role in reducing the global incidence of melioidosis

A systematic review on integration mechanisms in human and animal health surveillance systems with a view to addressing global health security threats

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) targeted for elimination by mass (antifilarial) drug administration. These drugs are predominantly active against the microfilarial progeny of adult worms. New drugs or combinations are needed to improve patient therapy and to enhance the effectiveness of interventions in persistent hotspots of transmission. Several therapies and regimens are currently in (pre-)clinical testing. Clinical trial simulators (CTSs) project patient outcomes to inform the design of clinical trials but have not been widely applied to NTDs, where their resource-saving payoffs could be highly beneficial. We demonstrate the utility of CTSs using our individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO-IBM) that projects trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug. We identify key design decisions that influence the power of clinical trials, including participant eligibility criteria and post-treatment follow-up times for measuring infection indicators. We discuss how CTSs help to inform target product profiles