The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030

China's energy consumption doubled within the first 25 years of economic reforms initiated at the end of the 1970s, and doubled again in the past 5 years. It has resulted of a threefold CO2 emissions increase since early of 1980s. China's heavy reliance on coal will make it the largest emitter of CO2 in the world. By combining structural decomposition and input–output analysis we seek to assess the driving forces of China's CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030. In our reference scenario, production-related CO2 emissions will increase another three times by 2030. Household consumption, capital investment and growth in exports will largely drive the increase in CO2 emissions. Efficiency gains will be partially offset the projected increases in consumption, but our scenarios show that this will not be sufficient if China's consumption patterns converge to current US levels. Relying on efficiency improvements alone will not stabilize China's future emissions. Our scenarios show that even extremely optimistic assumptions of widespread installation of carbon dioxide capture and storage will only slow the increase in CO2 emissions

Unreflective use of old data sources produced echo chambers in the water-electricity nexus

This meta-analysis of over 2,400 papers tracks the influence of older publications that have 'echoed' through the decades, cited in countless publications and creating a potentially false confirmation bias. Echo chambers in science describe the amplification and repetition of information within closed networks. Frequently used data sources can cause echo chambers as scientists keep reading similar outputs from different sources, creating false perceptions of certainty and variety of data sources. We show this effect by studying the scientific and grey literature on water use by electricity systems. The power sector is the largest contributor to anthropogenic carbon emissions and the second largest water consumer. We have assessed the scope and references of 2,426 papers and created a citation network to trace original data sources. Most data sources used for the last 30 years originate from a few old US publications, recently also Chinese, that echo through publications. This echo effect, also reflected in recent scientific publications, creates a confirmation bias, also facilitating double counting of the water intensities of electricity generation. This example from sustainability science warns of the risk of echo chambers in other scientific disciplines

Stormwater Management Adaptation Pathways under Climate Change and Urbanization

Urban runoff volumes and flow peaks are likely to increase in the future owing to climate change-driven effects on rainfall and continued urbanization. Actionable planning estimates that anticipate these impacts are needed to assess stormwater management infrastructure requirements and to minimize impacts on ecosystem services. This study presents a planning-level simple flow simulation tool and quantifies benefits of green stormwater management practices in small watersheds. Flow simulation was performed using a curve number-based watershed model (CWM). A portfolio approach was used to assess cost-optimal stormwater adaptation pathways considering a suite of alternative practices including both gray and green infrastructure. The CWM provides actionable information for medium to highly urbanized watersheds with percent bias less than 30% for highly urbanized watersheds. Considering projected future stormwater needs, analysis of multiple stormwater management approaches showed that green stormwater management alternatives are less cost-optimal than gray infrastructure at small watershed scales. These results suggest the possible use of CWM for quick planning-level flow estimates and analysis of more green practices for cost-optimal alternatives

The role of connexin 37 gene polymorphism (1019C > T; Pro319Ser) in cardiovascular disease

In spite of the strong prognostic value of all traditional cardiovascularrisk factors, still striking differences exist in the prevalence of clinical events between patients at apparently similar risk. One of the main reasons is different genetic background. One of recently discussed candidate genes for cardiovascular disease is the gene for the protein Connexin 37 (Cx37). This protein is a part of gap junctions responsible for communications between cells including cells in the vessel wall. Studies focused on the association between Cx37 gene polymorphism (1019C > T; Pro319Ser) and cardiovascular disease demonstrate inconsistent results. Our findings in 1.316 men and women indicated that the Cx37 gene polymorphism (genotype CC) is significantly associated with acute coronary syndrome in non-smoking women. In addition, in urban and rural women from general population (n = 1.056) with impaired fasting glycaemia the same genotype is associated with increased intima media thickness of carotid arteries measured by ultrasound. Finally, in 289 women with diabetestype 1 or 2, and in 208 women from general population with central obesity, the CC genotype was associated with lower ankle brachial blood pressure index. These data indicate that Cx37 gene polymorphism could have gender- and smoking-dependent effects on acute coronary events and glucose dependent effect on atherosclerosis in women. Keywords: connexin 37 gene polymorphism, atherosclerosis, acute coronary syndromes, women smoking, glycaemia.Незважаючи на однозначність прогностичного значення усіх традиційних факторів ризику серцево-судинних захворювань, існують значні розбіжності у їхніх клінічних проявах у різних пацієнтів. Однією з основних причин цього є неоднаковий генетичний фон. З-поміж недавно обговорюваних генів-кандидатів, які впливають на серцево-судинні захворювання, обрано ген білка конексину 37 (Cx37). Цей білок відповідає за міжклітинні взаємодії, включаючи клітини стінок кровоносних судин. Дослідження, зосереджені на пошуку зв’язку між поліморфізмом гена конексину 37 (1019C > T; Pro319Ser) та серце - во-судинними захворюваннями, показують суперечливі результати. Наші дослідження 1316 чоловіків і жінок демонструють, що поліморфізм гена Сх37 (генотип СС) значною мірою пов’язаний з гострим коронарним синдромом у жінок, які не курять. Окрім того, у міських і сільських жінок із загальної популяції (n = 1056) з порушеною глікемією цей же генотип пов’язаний із збільшенням товщини інтими сонних артерій, виміряної ультразвуком. У 289 жінок з діабетом 1-го або 2-го типу і у 208 жінок із загальної популяції з ожирінням генотип СС виявився зв’язаним з нижчим щиколотко-плечовим індексом тиску крові. Такі дані показують, що стать і куріння діють на гострі коронарні прояви, обумовлені поліморфізмом гена Cx37, для жінок виявлено також глюкозозалежний вплив на атеросклероз. Ключові слова: поліморфізм гена конексину 37, атеросклероз, гострий коронарний синдром, куріння жінок, глікемія.Несмотря на однозначность прогностического значения всех традиционных факторов риска сердечно-сосудистых заболеваний, по-прежнему существуют значительные отличия в их клинических проявлениях у разных пациентов. Одной из основных причин этого является неодинаковый генетический фон. Среди недавно обсуждаемых генов-кандидатов, влияющих на сердечно-сосудистые заболевания, выбран ген белка коннексина 37 (Cx37). Этот белок ответствен за межклеточные взаимодействия, включая клетки стенок кровеносных сосудов. Исследования, сосредоточенные на поисках связи между Cx37 полиморфизмом гена (1019C > T; Pro319Ser) и сердечно-сосудистыми заболеваниями, показывают противоречивые результаты. Наши исследования 1316 мужчин и женщин демонстрируют, что полиморфизм гена Cx37 (генотип СС) в значительной степени связан с острым коронарным синдромом у некурящих женщин. Кроме того, у городских и сельских женщин из общей популяции (n = 1056) с нарушенной гликемией тот же генотип связан с увеличением толщины интимы сонных артерий, измеренной ультразвуком. У 289 женщин с диабетом 1-го или 2-го типа и у 208 женщин из общей популяции с ожирением генотип СС оказался связанным с более низким лодыжечно-плечевым индексом давления крови. Эти данные показывают, что пол и курение действуют на острые коронарные проявления, обусловленные полиморфизмом гена Cx37, для женщин выявлен также глюкозозависимое влияние на атеросклероз. Ключевые слова: полиморфизма гена коннексина 37, атеросклероз, острый коронарный синдром, курение женщин, гликемия

The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change

Within 5 years, China's CO2 emissions have nearly doubled, and China may already be the world's largest emitter of CO2. Evidence suggests that exports could be a main cause for the rise in Chinese CO2 emissions; however, no systematic study has analyzed this issue, especially over time. We find that in 2005, around one-third of Chinese emissions (1700 Mt CO2) were due to production of exports, and this proportion has risen from 12% (230 Mt) in 1987 and only 21% (760 Mt) as recently as 2002. It is likely that consumption in the developed world is driving this trend. A majority of these emissions have largely escaped the scrutiny of arguments over “carbon leakage” due to the current, narrow definition of leakage. Climate policies which would make the developed world responsible for China's export emissions have both benefits and costs, and must be carefully designed to achieve political consensus and equity. Whoever is responsible for these emissions, China's rapidly expanding infrastructure and inefficient coal-powered electricity system need urgent attention

Tevatron-for-LHC Report of the QCD Working Group

The experiments at Run 2 of the Tevatron have each accumulated over 1 inverse femtobarn of high-transverse momentum data. Such a dataset allows for the first precision (i.e. comparisons between theory and experiment at the few percent level) tests of QCD at a hadron collider. While the Large Hadron Collider has been designed as a discovery machine, basic QCD analyses will still need to be performed to understand the working environment. The Tevatron-for-LHC workshop was conceived as a communication link to pass on the expertise of the Tevatron and to test new analysis ideas coming from the LHC community. The TeV4LHC QCD Working Group focussed on important aspects of QCD at hadron colliders: jet definitions, extraction and use of Parton Distribution Functions, the underlying event, Monte Carlo tunes, and diffractive physics. This report summarizes some of the results achieved during this workshop.Comment: 156 pages, Tevatron-for-LHC Conference Report of the QCD Working Grou

Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries

Participatory scenario development for environmental management:A methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands

A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change

Measurement of the B0_s semileptonic branching ratio to an orbitally excited D_s** state, Br(B0_s -> Ds1(2536) mu nu)

In a data sample of approximately 1.3 fb-1 collected with the D0 detector between 2002 and 2006, the orbitally excited charm state D_s1(2536) has been observed with a measured mass of 2535.7 +/- 0.6 (stat) +/- 0.5 (syst) MeV via the decay mode B0_s -> D_s1(2536) mu nu X. A first measurement is made of the branching ratio product Br(b(bar) -> D_s1(2536) mu nu X).Br(D_s1(2536)->D* K0_S). Assuming that D_s1(2536) production in semileptonic decay is entirely from B0_s, an extraction of the semileptonic branching ratio Br(B0_s -> D_s1(2536) mu nu X) is made.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, LaTeX, version with minor changes as accepted by Phys. Rev. Let