On a Photographic Method of Recording Developmental Phases of Vegetation

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Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions

Collections of related Poisson or binomial counts arise, for example, from a number of different failures in similar machines or neighbouring time periods. A conventional Bayesian analysis requires a rather indirect prior specification and intensive numerical methods for posterior evaluations. An alternative approach using Bayes linear kinematics in which simple conjugate specifications for individual counts are linked through a Bayes linear belief structure is presented. Intensive numerical methods are not required. The use of transformations of the binomial and Poisson parameters is proposed. The approach is illustrated in two examples, one involving a Poisson count of failures, the other involving a binomial count in an analysis of failure times

Generating Narratives from Personal Digital Data: Using Sentiment, Themes, and Named Entities to Construct Stories

As the quantity and variety of personal digital data shared on social media continues to grow, how can users make sense of it? There is growing interest among HCI researchers in using narrative techniques to support interpretation and understanding. This work describes our prototype application, ReelOut, which uses narrative techniques to allow users to understand their data as more than just a database. The online service extracts data from multiple social media sources and augments it with semantic information such as sentiment, themes, and named entities. The interactive editor automatically constructs a story by using unit selection to fit data units to a simple narrative structure. It allows the user to change the story interactively by rejecting certain units or selecting a new narrative target. Finally, images from the story can be exported as a video clip or a collage

Magnetic Properties of Epitaxial and Polycrystalline Fe/Si Multilayers

Fe/Si multilayers with antiferromagnetic interlayer coupling have been grown via ion-beam sputtering on both glass and single-crystal substrates. High-angle x-ray diffraction measurements show that both sets of films have narrow Fe peaks, implying a large crystallite size and crystalline iron silicide spacer layers. Low-angle x-ray diffraction measurements show that films grown on glass have rougher interfaces than those grown on single-crystal substrates. The multilayers grown on glass have a larger remanent magnetization than the multilayers grown on single-crystal substrates. The observation of magnetocrystalline anisotropy in hysteresis loops and $(hkl)$ peaks in x-ray diffraction demonstrates that the films grown on MgO and Ge are epitaxial. The smaller remanent magnetization in Fe/Si multilayers with better layering suggests that the remanence is not an intrinsic property.Comment: 9 pages, RevTex, 4 figures available by fax. Send email to [email protected] for more info. Submitted to '95 MMM proceeding

Future demand for primary hip and knee arthroplasty in Scotland

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors are grateful to the Scottish Arthroplasty Project for the data utilised in this manuscript. No funding was received for this study.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models

The Bayes linear methodology allows decision makers to express their subjective beliefs and adjust these beliefs as observations are made. It is similar in spirit to probabilistic Bayesian approaches, but differs as it uses expectation as its primitive. While substantial work has been carried out in Bayes linear analysis, both in terms of theory development and application, there is little published material on the elicitation of structured expert judgement to quantify models. This paper investigates different methods that could be used by analysts when creating an elicitation process. The theoretical underpinnings of the elicitation methods developed are explored and an evaluation of their use is presented. This work was motivated by, and is a precursor to, an industrial application of Bayes linear modelling of the reliability of defence systems. An illustrative example demonstrates how the methods can be used in practice

Reducing MCPA herbicide pollution at catchment scale using an agri-environmental scheme

Publication history: Accepted - 16 May 2022; Published online - 20 May 2022.In river catchments used as drinking water sources, high pesticide concentrations in abstracted waters require an expensive treatment step prior to supply. The acid herbicide 2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid (MCPA) is particularly problematic as it is highly mobile in the soil-water environment following application. Here, an agri-environmental scheme (AES) was introduced to a large-scale catchment (384 km2) to potentially reduce the burden of pesticides in the water treatment process. The main measure offered was contractor application of glyphosate by weed wiping as a substitute for boom spraying of MCPA, supported by educational and advisory activities. A combined innovation applied in the assessment was, i) a full before-after-control-impact (BACI) framework over four peak application seasons (April to October 2018 to 2021) where a neighbouring catchment (386 km2) did not have an AES and, ii) an enhanced monitoring approach where river discharge and MCPA concentrations were measured synchronously in each catchment. During peak application periods the sample resolution was every 7 h, and daily during quiescent winter periods. This sampling approach enabled flow- and time-weighted concentrations to be established, and a detailed record of export loads. These loads were up to 0.242 kg km−2 yr−1, and over an order of magnitude higher than previously reported in the literature. Despite this, and accounting for inter-annual and seasonal variations in river discharges, the AES catchment indicated a reduction in both flow- and time-weighted MCPA concentration of up to 21% and 24%, respectively, compared to the control catchment. No pollution swapping was detected. Nevertheless, the percentage of MCPA occurrences above a 0.1 μg L−1 threshold did not reduce and so the need for treatment was not fully resolved. Although the work highlights the advantages of catchment management approaches for pollution reduction in source water catchments, it also indicates that maximising participation will be essential for future AES.This work was carried out as part of Source to Tap (IVA5018), a project supported by the European Union's INTERREG VA Programme, managed by the Special EU Programmes Body (SEUPB)

A systematic review of tranexamic acid in hip fracture surgery

Aim: To systematically examine and quantify the efficacy and safety of Tranexamic acid in hip fracture surgery.  Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted using Medline, EMBASE, AMED, CiNAHL, and the Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials. Two assessors independently screened search outputs for potentially relevant articles which met the eligibility criteria. The primary outcome measure was requirement of post-operative blood transfusion. Risk of bias assessment was performed using the Cochrane Collaboration’s risk of bias tool for RCT’s and the ROBINS-I tool for observational studies. Meta-analysis was performed to estimate risk ratio (RR), risk difference (RD) and mean difference (MD) values for dichotomous and continuous data outcomes respectively. The interpretation of each outcome was made using the GRADE approach.  Results: Of 102 studies identified, seven met the inclusion criteria including a total of 770 participants (TXA: 341; Control: 429). On meta-analysis, intra-venous TXA resulted in a 46% risk reduction in blood transfusion requirement compared to a placebo/control group (RR:0.54; 95% CI: 0.35 to 0.85; I2: 78%; Inconsistency (Chi2) p=<0.0001; N=750). There was also a significantly higher post-operative haemoglobin for TXA versus placebo/control (MD:0.81; 95% CI: 0.45 to 1.18; I2: 46%; Inconsistency (Chi2) p=0.10; N=638). There was no increased risk of thromboembolic events (RD:0.01; 95% CI: -0.03, 0.05; I2: 68%; Inconsistency (Chi2) p=0.007, N=683).  Conclusion: There is moderate quality evidence that TXA reduces blood transfusion in hip fracture surgery, with low quality evidence suggesting no increased risk of thrombotic events. These findings are consistent with TXA use in other orthopaedic procedures

The impact of COVID-19 on opioid use in those awaiting hip and knee arthroplasty : A retrospective cohort study

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