Assessing the Conditions for Multilateral Interventions or Non-Interventions: Intervention and Non-Intervention in the Asia Pacific Region

The focus of this thesis has been on the identification of the primary conditions that attract or deter multilateral interventions into internal conflicts in the Asia Pacific region. This thesis develops a framework which is applied to four cases of internal conflict to see what roles twenty-two structural and perceptual conditions have played in determining why multilateral intervention was initiated in two of the cases, and why multilateral intervention failed to be initiated in the other two cases. The research found that multilateral organizations will accept risks and costs associated with intervention if certain structural and perceptual conditions make intervention an attractive option. These conditions are, a favourable or significant international environment or international event(s), the consent of a sovereign state (even if it is induced), sustained and critical regional and international media coverage, a complete collapse of the state in conflict tainting it with the term 'failed state', a high probability of success, potential economic benefits, a humanitarian crisis (in respect of Unregulated Population Movements and genocide/politicide), the possibility of a clear exit strategy, and a self-interested Member State who can greatly subsidize an intervention. Multilateral non-interventions, on the contrary, are driven by a combination of a lack of sustained and critically analyzed media coverage on conflict issues and consequences, generally positive tactics and strategies adopted by disputants, conflicts of a long duration, the international environment, economic factors unfavourable to intervention, resistance levels to intervention or a failure to call for intervention, lack of any clear exit points, and an escalation phase. The importance of these conditions suggest that multilateral organizations are reluctant to take risks and costs when political will, for the collective and self, are not provoked. Consequently, particular structural and perceptual conditions trigger or influence political will. The analysis of four case studies (East Timor, Solomon Islands, Philippines (Moros), and West Papua) concludes that multilateral interventions will be the exception to the rule in the foreseeable future given the obvious selection bias evident in these policies, and the project questions the ad hoc determinants of current multilateral intervention policies