The Kelly criterion for spread bets

The optimal betting strategy for a gambler betting on a discrete number of outcomes was determined by Kelly (1956, A new interpretation of information rate. J. Oper. Res. Soc., 57, 975–985). Here, the corresponding problem is examined for spread betting, which may be considered to have a continuous distribution of possible outcomes. Since the formulae for individual events are complicated, the asymptotic limit in which the gamblers edge is small is examined, which results in universal formulae for the optimal fraction of the bank to wager, the probability of bankruptcy and the distribution function of the gamblers total capital

Renormalizability of Effective Scalar Field Theory

We present a comprehensive discussion of the consistency of the effective quantum field theory of a single $Z_2$ symmetric scalar field. The theory is constructed from a bare Euclidean action which at a scale much greater than the particle's mass is constrained only by the most basic requirements; stability, finiteness, analyticity, naturalness, and global symmetry. We prove to all orders in perturbation theory the boundedness, convergence, and universality of the theory at low energy scales, and thus that the theory is perturbatively renormalizable in the sense that to a certain precision over a range of such scales it depends only on a finite number of parameters. We then demonstrate that the effective theory has a well defined unitary and causal analytic S--matrix at all energy scales. We also show that redundant terms in the Lagrangian may be systematically eliminated by field redefinitions without changing the S--matrix, and discuss the extent to which effective field theory and analytic S--matrix theory are actually equivalent. All this is achieved by a systematic exploitation of Wilson's exact renormalization group flow equation, as used by Polchinski in his original proof of the renormalizability of conventional $\varphi^4$-theory.Comment: 80 pages, TeX, OUTP-93-23P, CERN-TH.7067/93. Many minor revisions, and several new paragraph

Plutarch and Dio on Cicero at the trial of Milo

The accounts of the trial of Milo given by Plutarch and Dio provide a valuable insight into the working methods of the two writers. A close examination of the incident in relation to the structure of Plutarch’s Life of Cicero confirms that the Life is a carefully structured unit which assumes audience knowledge of events and presents a particular picture of Cicero. A similar exploration of Dio’s account of the failing years of the Republic reveals the historian both playing with annalistic structure and emphasizing this incident in order to highlight the contemporary political breakdown; he too is interested in constructing a picture of Cicero in relation to his context, and hostility to the orator cannot explain all his choices. Granting literary skill and purpose to both of these writers allows us greater insight into the imperial reception of Cicero

Mitochondrial differentiation, introgression and phylogeny of species in the Tegenaria atrica group (Araneae, Agelenidae)

The relationships between the three members of the Tegenaria atrica group (T. atrica, T. saeva and T. gigantea) were examined with DNA sequence data from mitochondrial CO1, 16S rRNA, tRNAleu(CUN) and ND1 genes. Members of this group of large house spiders have overlapping distributions in western Europe and hybridize with each other to a variable degree. The close relatedness of all three species was supported by all analyses. T. saeva and T. gigantea are more closely affiliated than either is to T. atrica. Haplotypes clearly assignable to T. gigantea were also present in many specimens of T. saeva suggesting asymmetrical introgression of mtDNA from T. gigantea into T. saeva. Molecular clock calibrations (CO1) suggest that deeper divisions within the genus Tegenaria may be in excess of 10 million years old, and that the evolutionary history of the T. atrica group has been moulded by Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles

Clinical Trials in Alzheimer’s Disease: A Hurdle in the Path of Remedy

Human clinical trials seek to ameliorate the disease states and symptomatic progression of illnesses that, as of yet, are largely untreatable according to clinical standards. Ideally, clinical trials test “disease-modifying drugs,” i.e., therapeutic agents that specifically modify pathological features or molecular bases of the disease and would presumably have a large impact on disease progression. In the case of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), however, this approach appears to have stalled progress in the successful development of clinically useful therapies. For the last 25 years, clinical trials involving AD have centered on beta-amyloid (Aβ) and the Aβ hypothesis of AD progression and pathology. According to this hypothesis, the progression of AD begins following an accumulation of Aβ peptide, leading to eventual synapse loss and neuronal cell death: the true overriding pathological feature of AD. Clinical trials arising from the Aβ hypothesis target causal steps in the pathway in order to reduce the formation of Aβ or enhance clearance, and though agents have been successful in this aim, they remain unsuccessful in rescuing cognitive function or slowing cognitive decline. As such, further use of resources in the development of treatment options for AD that target Aβ, its precursors, or its products should be reevaluated. The purpose of this review was to give an overview of how human clinical trials are conducted in the USA and to assess the results of recent failed trials involving AD, the majority of which were based on the Aβ hypothesis. Based on these current findings, it is suggested that lowering Aβ is an unproven strategy, and it may be time to refocus on other targets for the treatment of this disease including pathological forms of tau

Legal Aspects of SIDS

My remarks today focus on four legal aspects of SIDS; the first three are problems of long standing and the fourth is less well recognized, an immediate problem to some but more of a cloud on the horizon to others. At the outset, I want to emphasize that I bring you no certain solutions. Rather my more modest objective is to provide a focus and framework for further discussions

Intra and Inter-Rater Reliability of a Novel Isometric Test of Neck Strength

There is no single, universally accepted method of measuring isometric neck strength to inform exercise prescription and injury risk prediction. This study aimed to establish the inter- and intra-rater reliability of a commercially available fixed frame dynamometer in measuring peak isometric neck strength. A convenience sample of male (n = 16) and female (n = 20) university students performed maximal isometric contractions for flexion (Flex), extension (Ext), left- (LSF) and right-side flexion (RSF) in a quadruped position over three sessions. The intra-rater reliability results were good-to-excellent for both males (ICC = 0.83–0.90) and females (ICC = 0.86–0.94) and acceptable (CV p ≤ 0.05): males were stronger in all four directions, and a significant effect for direction (p ≤ 0.05): Ext tested stronger (193 N) than Flex (176 N), LSF (130 N) and RSF (125 N). The findings show that the VALD fixed frame dynamometer can reliably assess isometric neck strength and can provides reference values for healthy males and females

Evolution of crystalline orientations in the production of ferritic stainless steel

Ferritic stainless steel EN 1.4016 is used in a wide range of applications, the most common ones related to sheet forming. Several problems in the post-processing of these steels relates to their texture and anisotropy. Therefore, it is necessary to know the mechanisms of texture formation in the subsequent stages of metal manufacturing processes. EBSD has been demonstrated as a successful characterisation technique for this purpose. It is known that during re-crystallisation of Fe-Cr steels, deviations from the desired.-fibre texture promote a decrease of deep drawability. Additionally, a-fibre damages formability. Subsequent cold rolling and annealing can enhance the deep drawing properties of the steel sheet. In this research, a standard sample and a modified one with optimised settings as regard to chemical composition and manufacturing process, to improve the formability properties, are characterised. To analyse the preferred orientation and the type of main fibre present in the material, ODF and Aztec Reclassify Phase, to calculate the content of martensite, were used