Chapter 2 Strategic underperformance

"This book examines the key dimensions of 21st century war, and shows that orthodox thinking about war, particularly what it is and how it is fought, needs to be updated. Accelerating societal, economic, political and technological change affects how we prepare, equip and organise for war, as well as how we conduct war – both in its low-tech and high-tech forms, and whether it is with high intensity or low intensity. The volume examines changes in warfare by investigating the key features of the conduct of war during the first decades of the 21st century. Conceptually centred around the terms ‘kinetic’, ‘connected’ and ‘synthetic’, the analysis delves into a wide range of topics. The contributions discuss hybrid warfare, cyber and influence activities, machine learning and artificial intelligence, the use of armed drones and air power, the implications of the counterinsurgency experiences in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, as well as the consequences for law(fare) and decision making. This work will be of much interest to students of military and strategic studies, security studies and International Relations.

NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020

This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda

Chapter 2 Strategic underperformance

"This book examines the key dimensions of 21st century war, and shows that orthodox thinking about war, particularly what it is and how it is fought, needs to be updated. Accelerating societal, economic, political and technological change affects how we prepare, equip and organise for war, as well as how we conduct war – both in its low-tech and high-tech forms, and whether it is with high intensity or low intensity. The volume examines changes in warfare by investigating the key features of the conduct of war during the first decades of the 21st century. Conceptually centred around the terms ‘kinetic’, ‘connected’ and ‘synthetic’, the analysis delves into a wide range of topics. The contributions discuss hybrid warfare, cyber and influence activities, machine learning and artificial intelligence, the use of armed drones and air power, the implications of the counterinsurgency experiences in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, as well as the consequences for law(fare) and decision making. This work will be of much interest to students of military and strategic studies, security studies and International Relations.

NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020

This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda

Military Adaptation in Afghanistan

When NATO took charge of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) for Afghanistan in 2003, ISAF conceptualized its mission largely as a stabilization and reconstruction deployment. However, as the campaign has evolved and the insurgency has proved to more resistant and capable, key operational imperatives have emerged, including military support to the civilian development effort, closer partnering with Afghan security forces, and greater military restraint. All participating militaries have adapted, to varying extents, to these campaign imperatives and pressures. This book analyzes these initiatives and their outcomes by focusing on the experiences of three groups of militaries: those of Britain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the US, which have faced the most intense operational and strategic pressures; Germany, who's troops have faced the greatest political and cultural constraints; and the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the Taliban, who have been forced to adapt to a very different sets of circumstances.Intro -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Contributors -- Acronyms -- 1. Introduction: Military Adaptation in War - Theo Farrell -- 2. The Great Game and the Quagmire: Military Adaptationin the British and Soviet Wars in Afghanistan, 1839-1989 - Daniel Moran -- 3. Into the Great Wadi: The United States and the War in Afghanistan - James A. Russell -- 4. ISAF and NATO: Campaign Innovation and Organizational Adaptation - Sten Rynning -- 5. Back from the Brink: British Military Adaptation and the Struggle for Helmand, 2006-2011 - Theo Farrell -- 6. The Military Metier: Second Order Adaptation and the Danish Experience in Task Force Helmand - Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen -- 7. Soft Power, the Hard Way: Adaptation by the Netherlands' Task Force Uruzgan - Martijn Kitzen, Sebastiaan Rietjens, and Frans Osinga -- 8. Mission Command Without a Mission: German Military Adaptation in Afghanistan - Thomas Rid and Martin Zapfe -- 9. Canadian Forces in Afghanistan: Minority Government and Generational Change while under Fire - Stephen M. Saideman -- 10. Military Adaptation by the Taliban, 2001-2011 - Antonio Giustozzi -- 11. Shoulder-to-Shoulder Fighting Different Wars -- NATO Advisors and Military Adaptation in the Afghan National Army, 2001-2011 - Adam Grissom -- 12. Conclusion: Military Adaptation and the War in Afghanistan - Frans Osinga and James A. Russell -- IndexWhen NATO took charge of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) for Afghanistan in 2003, ISAF conceptualized its mission largely as a stabilization and reconstruction deployment. However, as the campaign has evolved and the insurgency has proved to more resistant and capable, key operational imperatives have emerged, including military support to the civilian development effort, closer partnering with Afghan security forces, and greater military restraint. All participating militaries have adapted, to varying extents, to these campaign imperatives and pressures. This book analyzes these initiatives and their outcomes by focusing on the experiences of three groups of militaries: those of Britain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the US, which have faced the most intense operational and strategic pressures; Germany, who's troops have faced the greatest political and cultural constraints; and the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the Taliban, who have been forced to adapt to a very different sets of circumstances.Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, YYYY. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries

Profiling Terrorists—Using Statistics to Fight Terrorism

The financial war on terror necessitates authorities and governments to search for novel methods and tools to identify, prosecute and round up (members of) terrorist networks and, preferably, preventively thwart their activities. Terrorist profiling, originating in offender profiling, provides one such method. It aims to derive information from seemingly relevant and coherent sets of attributes. Grounded in counter threat finance, and geared towards incapacitating terrorist business models and underpinning financial resources, the toolkit used is derived from another area of misuse of financial services, namely money laundering. This chapter, based on practice and scarce research, thus far, renders an account of developments in terrorist profiling in the financial economic realm. Specifically, it is discussed whether statistical profiling based on retail banking behaviour can be considered effective in the financial fight against terrorism. We conclude that, to date, similar to the effectiveness of FATF’s financial measures to fight terrorism, the effectiveness of statistical profiling in this respect remains limited

Diffusion-weighted MRI to assess response to chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer:main interpretation pitfalls and their use for teaching

To establish the most common image interpretation pitfalls for non-expert readers using diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) to assess response to chemoradiotherapy in patients with rectal cancer and to explore the use of these pitfalls in an expert teaching setting. Two independent non-expert readers (R1 and R2) scored the restaging DW MRI scans (b1,000 DWI, in conjunction with ADC maps and T2-W MRI scans for anatomical reference) in 100 patients for the likelihood of a complete response versus residual tumour using a five-point confidence score. The readers received expert feedback and the final response outcome for each case. The supervising expert documented any potential interpretation errors/pitfalls discussed for each case to identify the most common pitfalls. The most common pitfalls were the interpretation of low signal on the ADC map, small susceptibility artefacts, T2 shine-through effects, suboptimal sequence angulation and collapsed rectal wall. Diagnostic performance (area under the ROC curve) was 0.78 (R1) and 0.77 (R2) in the first 50 patients and 0.85 (R1) and 0.85 (R2) in the final 50 patients. Five main image interpretation pitfalls were identified and used for teaching and feedback. Both readers achieved a good diagnostic performance with an AUC of 0.85. aEuro cent Fibrosis appears hypointense on an ADC map and should not be mistaken for tumour. aEuro cent Susceptibility artefacts on rectal DWI are an important potential pitfall. aEuro cent T2 shine-through on rectal DWI is an important potential pitfall. aEuro cent These pitfalls are useful to teach non-experts how to interpret rectal DW

New Target Genes in Endometrial Tumors Show a Role for the Estrogen-Receptor Pathway in Microsatellite-Unstable Cancers

Microsatellite instability (MSI) in tumors results in an accumulation of mutations in (target) genes. Previous studies suggest that the profile of target genes differs according to tumor type. This paper describes the first genome-wide search for target genes for mismatch repair-deficient endometrial cancers. Genes expressed in normal endometrium containing coding repeats were analyzed for mutations in tumors. We identified 44 possible genes of which seven are highly mutated (>15%). Some candidates were also found mutated in colorectal and gastric tumors. The most frequently mutated gene, NRIP1 encoding nuclear receptor-interacting protein 1, was silenced in an endometrial tumor cell line and expression microarray experiments were performed. Silencing of NRIP1 was associated with differences in the expression of several genes in the estrogen-receptor network. Furthermore, an enrichment of genes related to cell cycle (regulation) and replication was observed. We present a new profile of target genes, some of them tissue specific, whereas others seem to play a more general role in MSI tumors. The high-mutation frequency combined with the expression data suggest, for the first time, an involvement of NRIP1 in endometrial cancer development